Matt Youmans – NFL Week 16 Best Bets:
Here are my NFL Week 16 best bets.
Kansas City (-3) at Tennessee
After losing three consecutive must-win games, the Kansas City Chiefs have turned from desperate to depressed. Patrick Mahomes’ knee injury last week ended his season and left the team at a dead end. The Super Bowl loser hangover strikes again.
How low can the Chiefs (6-8) go? A hopeless Kansas City team that is 1-5 in its past six games could sink even lower Sunday with a loss to the hapless Titans (2-12) in Nashville. A matchup that appears meaningless on the surface is actually one of the most interesting games of Week 16 for handicappers.
Without Mahomes and with journeyman quarterback Gardner Minshew leading the way into the darkness, the Chiefs would be road favorites against only a handful of teams in the NFL. As luck would have it, ironically, Tennessee is one of those teams. The Titans have won two games by a total of three points.
It’s tough to envision Kansas City coach Andy Reid, who has looked half asleep on the sideline in recent weeks, delivering a motivational speech to rally his players. It’s tough to envision Minshew, who was miserable in relief a week ago, playing anywhere near Mahomes’ level. And the Chiefs were a bad bet with Mahomes, who went 9-18 ATS in his last 27 starts.
The Titans could and probably should win this game behind rookie quarterback Cam Ward, who has totaled four touchdown passes in the past two games, and running back Tony Pollard, who has topped 100 yards rushing in each of the past two games. This is one of those times when you feel an obligation to play the ugly ‘dog and tune in to see what goes wrong.
Best Bet: Tennessee Titans +3
Green Bay at Chicago (-1.5)
A tip of the cap to Ben Johnson, who’s overachieving at 10-4 in his first season as Bears coach. But after taking the job, Johnson smirked and said he would enjoy beating Packers coach Matt LaFleur twice a year, and Johnson is 0-1 with that prediction. Johnson has a shot to get even Saturday night at Soldier Field and this is the right time to catch Green Bay, which is without star pass rusher Micah Parsons and several other key players. The Packers, on the road for the third time in four weeks, were just picked apart by Bo Nix in a 34-26 loss at Denver. Nix passed for 302 yards and four touchdowns with no picks and no sacks. Johnson is making progress with his development of quarterback Caleb Williams, who needs to avoid turnovers while leaning on the league’s No. 2 rushing offense (152 yards per game). The Bears rushed for 138 yards and took the Packers to the wire in a 28-21 loss at Lambeau Field two weeks ago. Very rarely in the past 30 years have I bet on Chicago to beat Green Bay, but I’ve reluctantly become somewhat of a believer in these Bears.
Best Bet: Chicago Bears -1.5
Pittsburgh at Detroit (-7)
The Steelers (8-6) are getting relatively hot just in time to give coach Mike Tomlin a realistic shot at another winning season. Aaron Rodgers’ play peaked the past two weeks as he passed for a total of 508 yards and three touchdowns in victories over the Dolphins and Ravens. It’s doubtful Rodgers has enough firepower to trade shots with Jared Goff and Detroit’s No. 1 scoring offense (30.6 ppg). The Lions have won 15 in a row (14-1 ATS) off a loss behind the duo of Goff and coach Dan Campbell. I’m not crazy about laying the points, but Detroit does look like an ideal favorite to play on a teaser.
Best Bet: Lions -1/Giants +8.5 on a 6-point teaser
New England at Baltimore (-3)
Just when it seemed the Patriots were about to clinch the AFC East, they choked away a 21-0 lead in a 35-31 loss to Josh Allen and the Bills. Allen is far more dangerous than the current version of Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson, who passed for 150 yards with an interception while taking four sacks last week against a bad Bengals defense. Baltimore dropped its past two home games while allowing a total of 59 points to Cincinnati and Pittsburgh. There are reasons to have faith in New England coach Mike Vrabel’s ability to get his team to bounce back.
Best Bet: New England Patriots +3
San Francisco (-5.5) at Indianapolis
Some will say San Francisco is heating up at the right time, but the 49ers’ four-game win streak (Arizona, Carolina, Cleveland and Tennessee) has been more about the schedule getting soft at the right time. The San Francisco defense forced no turnovers and recorded no sacks last week against the Titans. Colts quarterback Philip Rivers has the mobility of a mannequin and could be an easy target, yet Rivers was sacked only once on 28 dropbacks against Seattle. Rivers is smart enough to get the ball out quickly and hand it off to running back Jonathan Taylor, who had 25 carries for 87 yards last week. It should not come as a big surprise if Rivers and Taylor do enough to help Indianapolis to pull the upset Monday night. I hoped this line would move to +7, but I’ll have to settle for a little less.
Best Bet: Indianapolis Colts +6
For more NFL Week 16 best bets, visit the NFL Week 16 betting hub, exclusively on VSiN.
