Matt Youmans – NFL Week 18 Best Bets:
Here are my NFL Week 18 best bets.
Baltimore (-4) at Pittsburgh
A conspiracy theorist might say the NFL scripted it this way, and we should have seen this coming all along. It doesn’t get much better than a win-or-go-home finale pitting Lamar Jackson, John Harbaugh and the Ravens against Aaron Rodgers, Mike Tomlin and the Steelers on a freezing Sunday night in Pittsburgh.
The stakes are high for game No. 272 of the regular season as the winner takes the AFC North and hosts a wild-card playoff game while the loser gets kicked out of the postseason party. The game is so big, the stars refuse to miss it. Jackson is coming back from a back injury, and Steelers linebacker T.J. Watt is returning from a punctured lung. When two rivals are ready to brawl in a back alley, sitting out with an injury excuse is not an option.
The toughest guy on the field could prove to be Baltimore running back Derrick Henry, who was an unstoppable force a week ago when running 36 times for 216 yards and four touchdowns in a win at Green Bay. The Ravens have gone away from Henry too often this season, but Harbaugh won’t allow that to happen here. The Pittsburgh defense has been pounded on the ground several times, most notably on Nov. 30, when the Bills rushed for 249 yards.
The Steelers’ surge started a week later on Dec. 7, when Rodgers passed for a season-high 284 yards in a 27-22 win at Baltimore. Rodgers targeted receiver DK Metcalf 12 times that day and Metcalf finished with seven catches for 148 yards. Metcalf is currently sidelined by a suspension, and he also missed last week’s loss in Cleveland which happened to be Rodgers’ worst performance of the season.
Jackson’s return should be a boost for Baltimore, but that’s debatable. The Ravens are 6-6 in 12 starts by Jackson, who has been an inconsistent passer while rushing for a career-low 28 yards per game. The point spread is inflated, partly due to Jackson’s comeback and also because Rodgers and the Pittsburgh offense looked so pitiful without Metcalf.
The Steelers typically find a way, and the perception that these teams tend to play close games is reality. In regular-season meetings between Tomlin and Harbaugh, the underdog is 25-7-3 ATS. Pittsburgh is 7-2 SU and ATS against Baltimore in the past nine meetings.
Best Bet: Pittsburgh Steelers +4
Detroit at Chicago (-3)
This line, which DraftKings opened at 1.5, has smelled fishy all week and that normally would keep me off the game. The Lions have lost three in a row and four of five to get knocked out of playoff contention. In a game that mattered last week at Minnesota, Jared Goff committed five turnovers and was sacked five times. The Bears are 7-2 in their past nine, losing one-score games at Green Bay and San Francisco, and their defense leads the league with 32 takeaways. Chicago clinches the NFC’s No. 2 seed with a win or an Eagles loss. This means something to the Bears and coach Ben Johnson, who surely wants revenge for a 52-21 beating his team took at Detroit in Week 2. Believe it or not, the Bears never have had a 4,000-yard passer in the franchise’s 105 years of existence, and Caleb Williams is 270 yards away from that mark. The fishy line might be a reason to take the Lions, but I can’t find many other reasons. I bet the Bears -2.5 and will stick with it.
Best Bet: Chicago Bears -3
Seattle (-2.5) at San Francisco
With the NFC West and No. 1 seed on the line Saturday night, the betting market has moved in favor of the Seahawks and their far superior defense. Seattle ranks No. 2 in scoring defense (18.1 ppg) and eighth in sacks (44). But the Seahawks are also counting on Sam Darnold, who can’t be trusted in this situation and is the inferior quarterback in this matchup. The 49ers are 7-1 this season in starts by Brock Purdy, who has 12 touchdown passes and two interceptions in the past four games. Running back Christian McCaffrey has been Superman lately, and tight end George Kittle is returning from an ankle injury. I might end up taking the underdog and the points, but I’ll definitely play San Francisco on a teaser.
Best Bet: 49ers +8.5 with Bills -2 and Rams -2.5 on athree-team6-point teaser.
For more NFL Week 18 best bets, visit the NFL Week 18 betting hub, exclusively on VSiN.
