Matt Youmans – NFL Week 4 Best Bets:
Here are my NFL Week 4 best bets.
Indianapolis at Los Angeles Rams (-3.5)
One minute into the third quarter, Matthew Stafford’s second touchdown pass of the game put the Rams in position to make a bold statement last Sunday in Philadelphia. The reigning Super Bowl champs were down and ready to be knocked out.
Instead, Stafford never landed another punch and the Eagles staged a Rocky Balboa-type comeback for the ages.
When something is crushing, demoralizing and emotionally draining, it’s tough to focus on anything positive. The Rams were not unique in losing a game on a blocked field-goal attempt on the final play because those things happen. How the Eagles won and covered the point spread on that play was so incredible it will be unforgettable.
It should have been enough that Philadelphia defensive lineman Jordan Davis busted through to block Joshua Karty’s kick to preserve the Eagles’ 27-26 lead as time expired. It was not enough. Amid a pile of bodies, the ball bounced up to Davis and the 336-pounder raced 61 yards to the end zone to finish off a stunning 33-26 victory — and the Eagles covered as 3.5-point favorites while the Rams’ betting backers were stuck with one of the worst beats in NFL history.
A week later, time is doing little to heal the bettors’ wounds. The only recourse for the Rams is to show resiliency and win the next one, which is Sunday against the Colts in Los Angeles.
So here was the positive side: The Rams played well enough to take a 26-7 lead, reinforcing the pregame analysis by the handicappers (including this one) who played the underdog. Unfortunately, the right side turned into a wrong result, and you try to move on. Some will even be willing to come back with a bet on the Rams again this week.
The Rams (2-1) are talented enough to win the NFC, something they also showed last season in a tight playoff defeat at Philadelphia. Stafford has plenty left to give at age 37; his playmakers (running backs Kyren Williams and Blake Corum and receivers Puka Nacua and Davante Adams) can be outstanding, and the offensive line is more than capable. The Rams’ defensive front, led by Jared Verse, is becoming a force as the team’s 12 sacks are tied for most in the league.
The Colts and quarterback Daniel Jones are a surprisingly upbeat story at 3-0, but that record includes victories over the Dolphins and Titans, two of the league’s worst teams. Indianapolis’ Jonathan Taylor leads the NFL with 338 rushing yards, but the Rams have been solid defending the run, allowing only one touchdown and 3.9 yards per attempt on the ground. Jones has six total touchdowns (three passing, three rushing) and no interceptions, but history lessons indicate he’s not really this good and is due for a reality check.
The bottom line is the Rams are the superior team and should be focused on showing it. Stafford and coach Sean McVay have seen enough to know they can’t sit on a lead and must stay aggressive and finish the job this time. It’s never easy to lay 3.5, but I’ll do that while also betting the Rams simply to win.
NFL Week 4 Best Bets: Los Angeles Rams -3.5 and moneyline -190
Chicago at Las Vegas (-1)
Ben Johnson’s first win as Chicago coach highlighted the bright side of quarterback Caleb Williams, who passed for 298 yards and four touchdowns (with no interceptions and no sacks) against the Cowboys. It also was an indictment of a bad Dallas defense. Considering all the criticism he attracts, it’s surprising Williams has 18 touchdown passes with two interceptions in his past 14 games. It’s not surprising that Williams has a 1-8 record in nine road starts.
Chicago’s soft defense might be just what a sluggish Las Vegas offense needs. The Raiders rank 27th in scoring (17.7 ppg) as quarterback Geno Smith and rookie running back Ashton Jeanty continue to struggle behind a below-average line. Offensive coordinator Chip Kelly will find ways to get tight end Brock Bowers more involved. The home team should be desperate and hungry.
NFL Week 4 Best Bets: Las Vegas Raiders -1 and Over 47.5 (half-unit each)
For more NFL Week 4 best bets, visit the NFL Week 4 betting hub, exclusively on VSiN.
