Matt Youmans – NFL Week 5 Best Bets:
Here are my NFL Week 5 best bets.
New England at Buffalo (-8)
It’s way too early in the NFL season to be crowning anyone, so let’s not jump to conclusions. Still, with one month of results in the books, the Bills have emerged as the Super Bowl favorites while quarterback Josh Allen has the inside track to repeat as MVP. Those statements are facts not up for debate because the odds tell the story.
Buffalo (+380) tops the Super Bowl odds board at DraftKings, where Allen is the even-money favorite to win the MVP award. It’s also time to point out the Bills (4-0) have defeated three of the league’s worst teams — the Jets, Saints and Dolphins own a combined record of 1-11 — and needed a miraculous comeback to stun the Ravens in Week 1. So while it’s too soon to crown the Bills, they are on their way to earning the No. 1 seed in the AFC.
New England (2-2) is the only team capable of making the AFC East somewhat interesting. It’s a two-horse race and the Patriots have a lot of ground to make up, something they could begin to do with a win Sunday night in Buffalo.
Mike Vrabel is doing what was expected in his first season as Patriots coach. He’s fixing what was a mess on both sides of the ball. New England has the league’s No. 2 run defense (77.5 yards per game), and offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels is making progress in the development of second-year quarterback Drake Maye. In the past three games, Maye has completed 79% of his passes with six touchdowns and one interception.
To beat the Bills or at least cover the number, the Patriots need to control the run. Buffalo’s James Cook has surpassed 100 yards rushing in three consecutive games, and Allen is always a running threat. Allen has 1,123 total yards (964 passing, 159 rushing) and 10 total touchdowns (seven passing, three rushing). Again, it’s important to remember those numbers compiled by Allen and Cook were against four weak defenses.
It’s foolish to think Vrabel’s defense can shut down the Bills because that’s not happening. But Vrabel’s defense can do enough to give the Patriots a shot to pull the upset. Maye will need to do his part to move the ball and get some help from rookie running back TreVeyon Henderson and wideout Stefon Diggs, who will be fired up to face his former team.
I lean Over the total of 49, but my play is on the underdog. The Patriots are 2-2 straight up and 4-0 ATS in the past four meetings with the Bills. Circa Sports has dropped the line to Buffalo -7.5, but DraftKings and FanDuel are offering 8.5.
NFL Week 5 Best Bet: New England Patriots +8.5
Dallas (-1.5) at New York Jets
The Cowboys are the worst 1-2-1 team in the league, which is fact because they are the only team with a 1-2-1 record. Dallas has a dreadful defense that ranks last in total yards allowed (420.5) and passing yards (297.3). Dak Prescott and the offense counter by ranking No. 1 in yards per game (404.3) and No. 5 in scoring (28.5 ppg). The Cowboys will be without at least three offensive linemen and injured receiver CeeDee Lamb. New York scored 32 points against Pittsburgh and 27 against Tampa Bay, so this matchup has the makings of a shootout if Jets quarterback Justin Fields does his share as he should. At 0-4 with two losses by exactly two points, Jets will play with urgency to get coach Aaron Glenn his first win.
NFL Week 5 Best Bets: New York Jets +1.5 and a 6-point teaser with Jets +7.5/Cardinals -1.5
Las Vegas at Indianapolis (-7)
The honeymoon in Vegas is not over for new coach Pete Carroll, but it’s almost history. The Raiders have played poorly during a three-game losing streak, and Geno Smith has thrown seven interceptions, ending his honeymoon. Smith is a quarterback who runs hot and cold and he’s due to heat up. Indianapolis ranks No. 4 in scoring offense (30.8 ppg) and is obviously a much better team than most preseason projections. The Colts are teaser candidates and a decent Circa Survivor option, but I sense this game will be close in the fourth quarter. In a 25-24 loss to the Bears last week, the Raiders outgained Chicago 357-271 and held a significant yards-per-play advantage (6.9 to 4.2). Of course, the Raiders unraveled with four turnovers (three Smith interceptions) and allowed a blocked field goal. Carroll will emphasize cleaning up the mistakes this week and his team will likely play a much cleaner game.
NFL Week 5 Best Bet: Las Vegas Raiders +7
Denver at Philadelphia (-4.5)
Denver ranks No. 2 in scoring defense (16.8 ppg) and has allowed 99 rushing yards per game, and it’s especially important to be solid against the run when squaring off with Eagles running back Saquon Barkley and quarterback Jalen Hurts. Philadelphia is 4-0 despite being outgained in total yards and yards per play in all four games, with Tampa Bay’s 376-200 advantage in total yards last week highlighting the Eagles’ offensive woes. Hurts was an astounding 0-for-8 passing in the second half against the Buccaneers. Bo Nix found a groove by passing for 326 yards as the Broncos outgained the Bengals 512-159 on Monday night. Philadelphia is not a phony team, but it’s not currently a team to trust laying more than a field goal.
NFL Week 5 Best Bet: Denver Broncos +4.5
For more NFL Week 5 best bets, visit the NFL Week 5 betting hub, exclusively on VSiN.
