Matt Youmans – NFL Week 6 Best Bets:
Here are my NFL Week 6 best bets.
Detroit at Kansas City (-2.5)
One year after being unbeatable in one-score games, the Kansas City Chiefs can’t find a way to win a close one. Still, it seems crazy to write off the reigning AFC champions this early in the season because Patrick Mahomes usually finds a way.
Mahomes and the Chiefs (2-3) are 0-3 in one-score outcomes — losing to the Chargers, Eagles and Jaguars — after going 11-0 in one-score games last season. It’s not going to be surprising if the Detroit-Kansas City clash on Sunday night is decided by one score. At Circa Sports, the Chiefs opened -1 and action on the home favorite has pushed the line to 2.5.
After a disastrous season-opening loss at Green Bay, Detroit has rebounded to win four in a row by an average margin of 19 points. Jared Goff has 11 touchdown passes and one interception during the winning streak. The Lions lead the NFL in scoring offense at 34.8 ppg.
The Chiefs are focused on bouncing back from a 31-28 loss at Jacksonville on a mistake-riddled Monday night. Mahomes threw an interception that was returned 99 yards for a touchdown, and Kansas City committed a season-high 13 penalties for 109 yards. On the positive side, the Chiefs did outgain the Jaguars 476-319 as Mahomes consistently moved the offense, although his pick-six was a major swing play in the game.
With the Chiefs close to being a 4-1 team, Mahomes and coach Andy Reid talked at length this week about cleaning up the costly mistakes. The price is cheap on Kansas City, which will be a focused home favorite.
Best Bet: Kansas City Chiefs -2.5
Seattle at Jacksonville (Pick ’em)
With the Jaguars off their best win in years, and one of the highlights of quarterback Trevor Lawrence’s career, this looks like a time to fade Jacksonville, which is a 1-point favorite at a few books. Despite an outstanding offensive showing, the Seahawks let one get away in a 38-35 loss to Tampa Bay. Sam Darnold completed 28 of 34 passes for 341 yards and four touchdowns. Jaxon Smith-Njigba had eight catches for 132 yards and Kenneth Walker rushed for 86 of the team’s 122 yards. Seattle ranks No. 5 in scoring offense (29.2 ppg). The Seahawks are known for their home-field advantage, but the reverse is actually true lately as they own a 9-1 road record the past two seasons.
Best Bets: Seattle Seahawks +1
Buffalo (-4.5) at Atlanta
The spot is better for the Falcons, who are 2-2 and coming out of a bye. The matchup is also favorable for Atlanta running back Bijan Robinson, who has 314 yards (4.9 per carry and 78.5 per game). The Bills rank 28th in run defense by allowing 145.6 yards per game. It’s tough to trust Falcons quarterback Michael Penix Jr. and coach Raheem Morris, so that’s a reason for hesitation. Buffalo quarterback Josh Allen is capable of taking over any game, but he’s got to cover a significant number and the home ‘dog should be live Monday night.
Best Bet: Atlanta Falcons +4.5
Chicago at Washington (-4.5)
Jayden Daniels returned from injury and played well, totaling 270 yards and a touchdown in Washington’s 27-10 victory over the Chargers in Los Angeles. The bad news for the Commanders is top receiver Terry McLaurin is doubtful to play with a lingering quad injury. The Bears won back-to-back games against the Cowboys and Raiders prior to a bye, which should provide an advantage for coach Ben Johnson. It’s popular to bash Chicago quarterback Caleb Williams, who has a 2-8 record in 10 road starts, so it’s probably surprising to hear that Williams has 19 touchdown passes to three interceptions in his past 15 games.
Best Bet: Chicago Bears +4.5
For more NFL Week 6 best bets, visit the NFL Week 6 betting hub, exclusively on VSiN.
