Matt Youmans – NFL Week 7 Best Bets:
Over the summer, when there were doubts about Patrick Mahomes’ ability to return from a knee injury and be the same player, the betting market was down on the Chiefs. Mahomes’ mobility and improvisational talents are what make him a special quarterback. Kansas City was coming off of a disastrous 6-11 season that ended with a six-game losing streak, so there also was a perception that the championship window was closing.
I opted to buy stock in Mahomes and the Chiefs at 15-1 odds to win the Super Bowl, in addition to a bet at +180 to win the AFC West. Kansas City is 5-0 and 1.5 games ahead of Denver in the division, so those futures are looking good so far.
The NFL is a week-to-week league and things can change quickly. A strong finish to the season is far more important than a fast start. Only three undefeated teams are still standing, including San Francisco (6-0) and Minnesota (5-0). The Vikings have the lowest ceiling of three because of their problematic quarterback situation. The 49ers are definitely Super Bowl material if they can overcome a pile of injuries to key players.
A Kansas City-San Francisco matchup in the Super Bowl is a popular prediction at this point, and that would be a rematch from February 2024, when the Chiefs won a 25-22 overtime thriller in Las Vegas. Don’t be surprised if the Chiefs and 49ers both fall on the road this weekend. Here are my best bets for NFL Week 7:
San Francisco 49ers (-2.5) at Atlanta Falcons
With a relatively comfortable cushion in the NFC West — three games up on the Seahawks and four up on the Rams — San Francisco should not feel urgency to put banged-up players on the field ahead of its Week 8 bye. The 49ers have ruled out receivers Mike Evans and Deebo Samuel and defensive end Nick Bosa. Brock Purdy has played his way into the MVP discussion with 14 touchdown passes to two interceptions. However, Purdy and the offense hit a dead end Monday night, when Evans left with an injury and a 23-3 lead against the Commanders turned into a 23-17 win.
Atlanta is 0-3 at home, including 0-2 with Michael Penix Jr. at quarterback, and this is their third consecutive home game. The Falcons should have a good shot to pull the upset if they don’t fall too far behind and can ride running back Bijan Robinson, who’s second in the league in rushing yards (641) and yards per game (106.8). This line has dipped from 3.5 early in the week to 2.5 (-120) at Circa Sports, but 3 might reappear by Sunday for dog bettors who can wait. Another option is to buy a half-point to +3 (-130).
Best Bet: Falcons +2.5
Los Angeles Rams (-3.5) at Las Vegas Raiders
The preseason Super Bowl favorites have stumbled to 2-4 and their injury report is a mess. The Rams will be without receiver Davante Adams, defensive tackles Poona Ford and Kobie Turner and linebacker Nate Landman. Matthew Stafford will miss Adams and maybe miss Puka Nacua, who has a calf injury and will be a game-time decision. It’s not do-or-die time yet, but the Rams arrive in Las Vegas desperately needing a win. The Raiders (3-3 straight up, 5-1 ATS) came up short on their home field in losses to Kansas City (30-27) and Buffalo (33-30), but their defense was decent against mobile quarterbacks and Stafford is immobile and short-handed. The Las Vegas defense has recorded 80 QB pressures and 15 sacks. There seems to be no better time than now to face the beat-up and slumping Rams.
Best Bet: Raiders +3.5
Kansas City Chiefs at Seattle Seahawks (-3)
With the Circa and DraftKings books both moving to Seattle -3 late in the week, count me in on the underdog. Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes and coach Andy Reid boast a 10-1-1 ATS record as road dogs. This game should mean more to Kenneth Walker, the NFL’s rushing leader with 665 yards. Walker was the Super Bowl MVP and Seattle let him go. The Seahawks are stuck with Sam Darnold, who has tossed seven interceptions and is getting little help from his running backs. Seattle is 1-3 in its past four games and four of its six games were decided by three points or fewer. It’s not going to be any sort of surprise if the Seahawks bounce back to get a needed win, but taking Mahomes and the points is a tough offer to refuse.
Best Bet: Chiefs +3
Dallas Cowboys (-4.5) at Philadelphia Eagles
While injuries are decimating the Eagles on both sides of the ball, it appears running back Saquon Barkley will return Monday night. The loss of quarterback Jalen Hurts has been a controversial issue, but it’s not a huge deal on the field because Hurts was not playing especially well and new starter Tanner McKee is capable. Dallas has been a major disappointment, starting with a confused coaching staff and carrying over to struggling quarterback Dak Prescott and a defense that ranks 30th in yards allowed (382.5 per game) and 25th in scoring (26.5 ppg). Maybe the Cowboys can get their act together, but this is a big number to cover on the road in a division game.
Best Bet: Eagles +4.5
Three more plays for Sunday:
Giants +10.5 at Texans
Colts-Vikings Under 41.5
Lions -3 (-120) vs Packers
Last week: 2-3 against the spread
Season: 22-15
For more NFL Week 7 best bets, visit the NFL Week 7 Betting Hub, exclusively on VSiN.com.
