Matt Youmans – NFL Week 8 Best Bets:
Here are my NFL Week 8 best bets.
Green Bay (-3) at Pittsburgh
In what is supposed to be his final NFL season, Aaron Rodgers is so far exceeding most expectations. The critics who claimed he had nothing left have been wrong. He’s playing well enough for Pittsburgh to be in first place in the AFC North, although the truth is he’s simply the last quarterback standing in a division that has collapsed.
Joe Burrow was lost to injury in Cincinnati, Lamar Jackson went down in Baltimore and Joe Flacco failed in Cleveland before getting traded to Cincinnati, where he recently upset Rodgers and the Steelers in a strange twist of fate.
Two months into the season, most teams are still searching for an identity. The Steelers are 4-2 amid smoke and mirrors. Pittsburgh ranks 24th in total offense and 28th in total defense, rankings that suggest their record should be reversed. But finding ways to win ugly games is what Mike Tomlin-coached teams have been doing for several years. One difference now is Tomlin’s defense has been a disaster area.
The media spotlight will be fixed on Rodgers when the Steelers host the Packers on Sunday night. Rodgers spent the first 18 years of his career in Green Bay, but he said, “This is not a revenge game for me.” While the 41-year-old facing his former team is a sexy storyline, he’s probably not going to be the most important player in the game.
Jordan Love, the quarterback who replaced Rodgers in Green Bay, should be more pivotal in deciding the outcome. Love needs to replicate what the 40-year-old Flacco unleashed on the Steelers on Oct. 16, when he passed for 342 yards and three touchdowns in a thrilling 33-31 win. The Bengals rolled up 470 total yards on a defense that had no answers. Tomlin and defensive coordinator Teryl Austin have had about 10 days to find some answers in what needs to be a redemption game for the Pittsburgh defense.
Rodgers, who has 14 touchdown passes to five interceptions, is getting a measure of revenge on those who said he was shot after two lost years with the Jets. Rodgers has been sacked only twice in the past three games, but he’ll be under more pressure from Micah Parsons and the Packers’ pass rushers.
Love has not been lighting it up recently. The Packers are 2-1-1 in their past four games, including 0-3 ATS on the road, and the Love-led offense totaled only 262 yards in a 27-23 win at Arizona a week ago.
I’m obviously partial to home ‘dogs and Tomlin is typically reliable in this role, going 19-13 straight up and 22-7-3 ATS. I’ll side with the Steelers and hope their defense shows up.
Best Bet: Pittsburgh Steelers +3
New York Giants at Philadelphia (-7.5)
How will the Giants react to blowing a 26-8 fourth-quarter lead in a 33-32 loss at Denver? That’s a question for Dr. Phil. I’m guessing the Giants will learn from it and respond with resilience, and they should be confident in this matchup after beating the Eagles 34-17 in early October. Philadelphia’s out-of-sync offense will be without injured receiver A.J. Brown. The Eagles have five wins, but none by more than seven points, and they will likely win again by one score. The Giants are on the rise due to an improving defense and the dynamic rookie duo of quarterback Jaxson Dart and running back Cam Skattebo.
Best Bet: New York Giants +7.5
Cleveland at New England (-7)
The Patriots are another team with a young quarterback who’s a rising star. Drake Maye has completed 75.2% of his passes for 1,744 yards and 12 touchdowns with two interceptions. Maye has been sacked 22 times, however, and the Cleveland defensive front will put the heat on him. The Browns’ biggest problem is at the quarterback position — Flacco flamed out and rookie Dillon Gabriel does not appear to be the guy. The Patriots just swept a three-game road trip through Buffalo, New Orleans and Tennessee, so this would seem to be a soft landing spot, but New England is 4-16 at home since the 2023 season. The Browns have the defense to be competitive if rookie Quinshon Judkins is effective running the ball.
Best Bet: Cleveland Browns +7
Dallas at Denver (-3.5)
If Bo Nix and the Broncos can recapture the offensive rhythm that produced 33 fourth-quarter points against the Giants, this should fly Over a high total. Nix tends to go cold too often, so that’s a potential problem with this play. The Cowboys’ only hope is for quarterback Dak Prescott to get hot. Dallas ranks No. 2 in scoring offense (31.7 ppg) and 30th in scoring defense (29.4 ppg), and its past four games have averaged 65.5 points.
Best Bet: Cowboys-Broncos Over 51
For more NFL Week 8 best bets, visit the NFL Week 8 betting hub, exclusively on VSiN.
