Matt Youmans – NFL Week 8 Best Bets:
If the Indianapolis Colts are not completely tanking and waving a white flag on the season, they are doing something close to it. After firing general manager Chris Ballard in mid-October, Colts owner Carlie Irsay-Gordon scribbled two trades on her notebook, sending offensive guard Quenton Nelson to Seattle and defensive lineman DeForest Buckner to San Francisco. With the NFL’s trade deadline looming on Nov. 10, she’s probably not done.
Ballard was embarrassingly bad at his job and should have been dumped long ago. The next star to go could be running back Jonathan Taylor. Indianapolis (2-5) is in obvious need of a franchise quarterback and enters a rebuilding phase. The Colts are 10-point underdogs at Jacksonville on Sunday, and this dog player will pass. Here are my best bets for Week 8:
Kansas City Chiefs (-1.5) at Denver Broncos
The Denver defense has improved dramatically since Week 1, when Kenneth Walker debuted for Kansas City by rushing for 173 yards and a touchdown on 23 carries. The Broncos, blown out 31-10 in the opener, have allowed 15.7 points during a three-game win streak. Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs are reeling after totaling only 11 first downs and 213 yards in a 20-3 loss at Seattle. Denver’s defensive front has cranked up the pressure on opposing quarterbacks, and Mahomes is working behind a mediocre line and not getting many big plays from his wide receivers.
Divisional underdogs are 23-10 ATS this season, and the Broncos are among seven in that role this week. The Mahomes-Bo Nix showdown should be a slowdown type of game. I prefer the home dog on a teaser instead of taking the short number. I rarely play two-team teasers anymore because of the high prices, but will make an exception.
Best Bet: Chiefs-Broncos Under 40.5; and Broncos +7.5 with Raiders +7.5 on a six-point teaser (-140)
Las Vegas Raiders at New York Jets (-1.5)
It could be time for Kirk Cousins to win or get benched, although the quarterback position is not the problem for the Raiders. Cousins is tied for the league lead with 16 touchdown passes and ranks fourth in passing yards with 1,877. He’s not getting much help from his running backs and the line is underperforming. Las Vegas has slipped defensively, and if that continues don’t be surprised if end Maxx Crosby is mentioned in trade talks. The Raiders’ defensive decline has been no surprise considering their past four games (all losses) were against the Rams, Bills, Patriots and Chiefs — teams with elite quarterbacks. The Jets, led by a clueless coach and clumsy quarterback, represent a significant step down in class for Las Vegas. I like the dog, but it’s tough to love the dog at such a short number.
Best Bet: Raiders +7.5 with Broncos +7.5 on a six-point teaser.
Chicago Bears at Seattle Seahawks (-3)
After Seattle added Quenton Nelson to its offensive line, Chicago made a big deal by trading with Tennessee for All-Pro defensive tackle Jeffery Simmons. If the Bears can pressure quarterback Sam Darnold, he’s a mistake waiting to happen. However, Darnold does have the league’s top wideout, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, as his primary weapon. Smith-Njigba has 58 receptions and a league-high eight touchdowns in seven games. The Seahawks defense ranks No. 1 against the pass (144 yards per game) and fourth in scoring (17.9 ppg), so it will be interesting to see what Bears quarterback Caleb Williams can do a week after Mahomes was stifled in Seattle. The price on the home favorite is cheap, so go with the reigning Super Bowl champs and the superior defense on Monday night.
Best Bet: Seahawks -3
Three more plays for Sunday:
Bills -3 vs Ravens
Cardinals +7 at Cowboys
Chargers +6.5 at Rams
Last week: 3-3-1 against the spread
Season: 25-18-1
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