Matt Youmans – NFL Week 9 Best Bets:
Here are my NFL Week 9 best bets.
Jacksonville (-3) at Las Vegas
It’s always darkest before the dawn, and the Raiders are in such a dark place that even their most faithful fans in “The Black Hole” must be questioning the meaning of life. This is far from what coach Pete Carroll envisioned when he took over in January and started raising expectations for the AFC West’s cellar dwellers.
In July, a month of optimism for all NFL teams, Carroll said, “We are going to win a bunch of games.” But by the time the autumn wind hit, it was obvious the Raiders still blow. Two wins do not equal a bunch.
It could be worse. The Raiders (2-5) are not quite as rotten as the Titans, Jets, Saints and Dolphins. On Sunday afternoon in Las Vegas, there’s a chance the Raiders could prove to be better than the Jaguars (4-3).
The thrill is also gone in Jacksonville. After upsetting the Chiefs for their third consecutive win on Oct. 6, the Jaguars returned to form by scoring a total of 19 points in back-to-back losses. Trevor Lawrence is looking more like a bust than a franchise quarterback, and first-round pick Travis Hunter is now sidelined with a knee injury.
And speaking of injuries, Brock Bowers’ knee has healed and the Raiders’ star tight end will return from a three-game absence. Defensive end Maxx Crosby is also expected to start while fighting through a back injury. So maybe there’s some light at the end of the Allegiant Stadium tunnel.
The bye week arrived at the right time for the Raiders, who produced one of the most pathetic offensive performances in NFL history in a 31-0 loss at Kansas City in Week 7. In ideal weather conditions and with their starting quarterback healthy, the Raiders finished with three first downs and 95 total yards. The Chiefs, by comparison, totaled 30 first downs and 434 yards.
It should be noted Las Vegas offensive coordinator Chip Kelly is being paid $6 million per year yet deserves about $6 per hour. The pressure to deliver is on Carroll, Kelly and everyone else associated with this disaster, including overpaid quarterback Geno Smith.
When the Raiders hit the road and beat the Patriots in the season opener, Smith passed for 362 yards and a touchdown, and Bowers had five receptions for 103 yards. Since that fluke win, the Raiders have ranked last in the league in passing yards, and Smith has slumped while throwing 10 interceptions, the second-highest total in the league.
The Jaguars have plenty of problems, too. Lawrence is working with a weak receiver group that no longer includes Hunter, the two-way star who’s on injured reserve. Prior to the injury, Hunter had eight catches for 104 yards and a touchdown in a 35-7 loss to the Rams in London. Hunter has played 67% of the offensive snaps and 36% of the defensive snaps.
I realize the Raiders are a tough sell, but who wants to buy the Jaguars? I bet the home underdog at +3, a number still available at DraftKings. The line has dipped to 2.5 at most books. Carroll is not going to win a bunch of games this season, but he could get this one.
Best Bet: Las Vegas Raiders +3 (-120)
San Francisco (-2.5) at New York Giants
Injuries are piling up on the Giants, who have lost rookie running back Cam Skattebo and star receiver Malik Nabers for the season. The Giants, who snatched defeat from the jaws of victory in games at Dallas and Denver, are not bad, but they are young and finding ways to lose. This should be a bounce-back spot for the 49ers, who were all-around bad in a loss at Houston. It’s easier to trust San Francisco coach Kyle Shanahan in this spot. Shanahan said Mac Jones will start at quarterback for the fifth straight week. The 49ers rank No. 2 in the league in passing yards (259.3 per game) and No. 8 in scoring defense (20.5 ppg). Expect bigger numbers from Christian McCaffrey against a weak Giants run defense allowing 5.7 yards per carry.
Best Bet: San Francisco 49ers -2.5
Denver at Houston (-1.5)
Not only are the Broncos overdue for a loss, their defense has suffered a major setback with the injury to cornerback Pat Surtain II, who’s out for about a month. The Texans are showing more juice on offense with C.J. Stroud passing for nine touchdowns with two interceptions in the past four games (three wins). This is a bad matchup for Denver quarterback Bo Nix, who’s facing Houston’s No. 1 scoring defense (14.7 ppg).
Best Bet: Houston Texans -1.5
For more NFL Week 9 best bets, visit the NFL Week 9 betting hub, exclusively on VSiN.
