Matt Youmans – NFL Wild Card Weekend Best Bets:
Here are my NFL Wild Card Weekend best bets.
Los Angeles Rams (-10.5) at Carolina
At the end of November, the Rams were on a roll. Matthew Stafford was putting up MVP-worthy numbers and Los Angeles had won six straight games to get to 9-2. A seemingly harmless trip to Charlotte turned out to be the first speed bump Stafford would hit down the stretch, which became a bumpy ride that has resulted in the Rams returning to Carolina today to open the NFL’s wild-card playoff weekend.
Stafford threw two interceptions, including one that was returned for a touchdown in the first quarter, as the Rams were upended 31-28 as 10-point favorites at Carolina on Nov. 30. Stafford was upstaged by Bryce Young, who passed for three touchdowns without a pick, and the Panthers rushed for 164 yards with Chuba Hubbard (83 yards) and Rico Dowdle (58 yards) leading the way. It’s doubtful the Panthers, who dropped three of their final four games yet still won the NFC South with an 8-9 record, can duplicate that performance and pull another upset.
It’s also unlikely Stafford will play poorly in the rematch. Stafford finished as the regular-season leader in passing yards (4,707) and touchdowns (46) while throwing only eight interceptions. Davante Adams is returning from a hamstring injury suffered in Week 15, so the L.A. offense is close to full strength. Adams led the league with 14 touchdown catches, and Puka Nacua led the league with 129 receptions. With all of their weapons ready to fire, including running backs Kyren Williams and Blake Corum, expect the Rams to exhibit why they bring in the NFL’s No. 1 scoring offense (30.5 ppg).
After the NFL Draft in late April, I made my only Super Bowl futures wager of the summer on the Rams at 30-1 odds. DraftKings currently lists NFC No. 1 seed Seattle as the title favorite (+330) with the Rams as the second choice (+425). There should not be much concern about the Rams getting stunned by Carolina again, but there is a fear factor with laying the points because L.A. is the largest road favorite in the playoffs in the Super Bowl era. All eight of the Panthers’ wins came in the underdog role and they are 8-0 ATS after a loss this season.
Best Bets: Carolina Panthers +10.5 and Over 46 (half-unit each)
Green Bay (-1) at Chicago
Ben Johnson’s first season as Chicago coach has been a huge success. The Bears went from worst (5-12) in the NFC North to first (11-6) thanks to several fourth-quarter comebacks and some lucky breaks — and the luckiest win probably came in Week 16 when the Bears wiped out a 10-point deficit in the final two minutes of regulation and stunned the Packers 22-16 in overtime. Green Bay (9-7-1) returns to Soldier Field on a four-game losing streak amid rumors that coach Matt LaFleur might need this win to keep his job.
The Packers are in relatively good health. Although they will miss the pass-rush presence of the injured Micah Parsons, quarterback Jordan Love and running back Josh Jacobs are returning. Bears quarterback Caleb Williams is making his first postseason start, and it’s stating the obvious by saying it’s critical for both quarterbacks to avoid costly mistakes. Chicago ranks first in the league in turnover differential (+22) and its defense leads with 33 takeaways. The Bears are 2-12 versus the Packers in the past 14 meetings, so this is one of those situations where I need to see it to believe it. But it’s difficult to love this play because Love is so shaky.
With all six games at outdoor stadiums this weekend, here’s a trend to consider courtesy of Evan Abrams of the Action Network: Since 2004, wild-card games played outdoors are 49-23 Under the total, including 42-14 Under when the total was 41 or higher.
Best Bets: Green Bay Packers -1 and Under 44.5 (half-unit each)
Buffalo (-1) at Jacksonville
With Patrick Mahomes (Chiefs), Lamar Jackson (Ravens) and Joe Burrow (Bengals) left out of the AFC playoff party, Josh Allen is clearly the best quarterback in the bracket and the door appears to be as open as ever for the Bills to make a Super Bowl run. History is not on Buffalo’s side, however. Allen is 5-8 ATS in the playoffs, including 0-4 straight up on the road, and the Bills have dropped eight straight playoff road games since last winning one in 1993.
The Jaguars come in on a heater, winning and covering eight straight games to finish 13-4 and first in the AFC South. Liam Coen has done an impressive coaching job in Jacksonville while helping to elevate the play of quarterback Trevor Lawrence. The key to this matchup will likely be the Jaguars’ run defense, which ranks No. 1 in the league by allowing 85.6 yards per game, against Allen and NFL rushing leader James Cook (1,621 yards, 95.4 per game).
While the Bills are 1-point favorites at most books and the game is a pick’em at Circa Sports, the Jaguars are the more popular side with a majority of handicappers. This is a coin flip and I’ll hesitantly side with the road team. It seems to be Allen’s time to shine and it’s almost now or never for him.
Best Bet: Buffalo Bills -1
San Francisco at Philadelphia (-5.5)
Only one of the NFL’s eight preseason division favorites finished on top, and the Eagles were the one to deliver as back-to-back NFC East champs. It was not always pretty. Philadelphia finished 11-6 and lost three consecutive games to the Cowboys, Bears and Chargers from Weeks 12 to 14 when its offense bogged down. This has been a challenging season for Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts, who has struggled with a new coordinator, and it’s obvious the reigning Super Bowl champs are not as strong as a year ago.
This matchup pits 49ers coach Kyle Shanahan, one of the league’s best offensive play callers, against highly respected Eagles defensive coordinator Vic Fangio. Shanahan should be playing with a full deck as left tackle Trent Williams is expected to return from a hamstring injury and tight end George Kittle will return. The 49ers need major production from running back Christian McCaffrey and error-free play from quarterback Brock Purdy. In the last two games, McCaffrey ran hot and cold — 181 total yards (140 rushing) in a win versus the Bears, but only 57 total yards (23 rushing) in a loss to the Seahawks. Purdy has 51 career starts and the 49ers are 23-1 when he had no turnovers.
Philadelphia faced six opponents that reached the playoffs this season and went 3-3 in those games with the wins by margins of one, three and seven points. The San Francisco defense is the weak link, especially since the midseason loss of linebacker Fred Warner, and this should be a big game for Eagles running back Saquon Barkley. I expect Philadelphia to win and lean Under the total, but the Eagles have rarely made it look easy and this could go to the wire.
Best Bet: San Francisco 49ers +5.5
Los Angeles Chargers at New England (-3.5)
Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert is still hunting for his first playoff win, and Jim Harbaugh is the coach who can help get him there. Herbert and Harbaugh came up woefully short last year when L.A. was hammered 32-12 at Houston in this round. Herbert and rookie running back Omarion Hampton need to make plays on the ground, but an injury-riddled offensive line minus both starting tackles has been a problem. Herbert has been able to overcome most obstacles this season and is 4-0 straight up as an underdog.
I bet the Patriots at +500 to win the AFC East and Mike Vrabel made the difference, taking over a team that finished 4-13 and coaching it up to 14-3. While the New England defense has been as solid as expected, the play of second-year quarterback Drake Maye has been surprisingly superb. Maye completed 72% of his passes with 31 touchdowns and is likely to finish second to Stafford in the MVP voting. The chess match between Maye, who has been sacked 47 times, and Chargers defensive coordinator Jesse Minter, who’s a hot head-coaching candidate, will be something to watch. I’ve been high on the Patriots all season, but they will probably have to sweat this one out and I’m taking the points.
Best Bet: Los Angeles Chargers +3.5
Houston (-3) at Pittsburgh
Aaron Rodgers has one Super Bowl win, which came as quarterback of the Packers, and Mike Tomlin has one championship as Steelers coach, but postseason success for both is a distant flicker in the rear-view mirror. Pittsburgh has not won a playoff game since 2017 and carries a six-game losing streak. But there are a couple of trends working in favor of Tomlin and Rodgers. Tomlin is 12-1 at home on “Monday Night Football” and the Steelers are 23-1 at home on Mondays since 1992. Rodgers has a 12-2 career record in Monday home games.
Trends won’t mean anything when the game starts, however. Rodgers will need to be at his best, and he’ll have help with the return of receiver DK Metcalf. Rodgers is smart enough to utilize running backs Kenneth Gainwell and Jaylen Warren to deliberately move the offense against a Houston defense with a nasty reputation. The Texans have not been great defensively in recent weeks, though, allowing 21.8 points in the past four games against the Colts, Cardinals, Raiders and Chargers. The Pittsburgh defense, boosted by the return of linebacker T.J. Watt, broke down a few times last week against the Ravens. Still, it’s much tougher to contain Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry than it is to control Texans quarterback CJ Stroud, who’s always a question mark.
The Steelers came through for me a week ago and I’ll stick with that side. I bet this at +3.5 early in the week and expect Rodgers and Tomlin to stay hot on a cold Monday night in Pittsburgh.
Best Bet: Pittsburgh Steelers +3
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