Matt Youmans – Super Bowl 60 Best Bets:
It’s too soon to compare Drake Maye to Tom Brady, but hopefully the comparison is being made Sunday night after Maye leads the New England Patriots to a Super Bowl win. For starters, Maye is an underdog, just as Brady was a ‘dog in the first of his six championships with the Patriots.
After a superb regular season, Maye’s play has slipped to mostly unimpressive in the postseason, and his task only gets tougher against an elite Seattle defense. Still, the 23-year-old quarterback was the runner-up in NFL MVP voting for good reason and he’s got an opportunity to play his best on the biggest stage, a clutch quality that made Brady legendary.
The case for the Patriots does not necessarily begin with Maye, however. New England coach Mike Vrabel’s defense has allowed only two touchdowns and an average of 8.7 points while forcing eight turnovers in three playoff games against the Chargers, Texans and Broncos.
The counterargument is Sam Darnold and the Seahawks, who scored a total of 72 points in their two playoff wins, are a different animal than the weak offenses the Patriots faced on the AFC side. Darnold is coming off the finest performance of his career by passing for 346 yards and three touchdowns without an interception against the Rams in the NFC title game.
It could be a mistake to doubt Darnold, but he’s still got something to prove. Darnold led the league with 20 turnovers this season, and he’s facing a New England defense that feasts on mistakes. It’s going to be difficult for Darnold to duplicate his sensational outing against the Rams while playing away from home for the first time in this postseason.
It’s also worth noting the Seahawks defense did not slow down Matthew Stafford, the veteran quarterback who edged Maye by one first-place MVP vote. Stafford and the Rams rolled up 479 total yards and 8.3 yards per play in the 31-27 shootout in Seattle two weeks ago. The Seahawks have allowed 132 points during their nine-game win streak — 64 points in two games versus the Rams and 68 points in the other seven games.
Maye might not need to play at Stafford’s level to win this game, but he must avoid big blunders because the Patriots’ margin for error is thin. Meanwhile, the New England defense does need to shut down the run and force Darnold to try to be the hero, a role he has rarely thrived in throughout his career.
The five-game ATS win streak for underdogs is the longest in Super Bowl history, and I’m going with the ‘dog for the third year in a row. My prediction: Patriots, 23-20. I lean Under the total of 45.5, but that will be a half-unit bet if I play it.
Super Bowl 60 Best Bet: Patriots +5
Ten prop bets for the 60th Super Bowl (and our 10th Super Bowl at VSiN):
No score in the first 6.5 minutes of the game (-135)
It’s not a bad idea to play the first quarter and first half Under the total, but I’ll stick with this prop which I’ve played several times in the past. With two quarterbacks starting in this game for the first time, expect a slow start as the offensive coordinators are likely to be conservative with their play calling. Aside from the classic Marvin Hagler-Thomas Hearns duel in 1985, which was an all-out brawl after the opening bell, the first round or two of a boxing title fight usually sees the combatants dancing around and throwing jabs to get a feel for the opponent, which will probably happen here. For historical context, there have been 10 Super Bowls with a scoreless first quarter — the most recent being the Chiefs-49ers matchup in 2024 — and the Patriots were involved in five of the 10.
Sam Darnold Over 29.5 pass attempts (-110)
Darnold’s redemption story is not quite complete, although the Seahawks quarterback is already being hyped as a conquering hero. He’s got to win one more game, and he will have to do it with his arm. New England is rock solid against the run, so coach Mike Vrabel will dare Darnold to beat his defense through the air. It’s a strategy that makes sense for several reasons because the more Darnold throws it, the more likely he is to make mistakes. The Seattle coaches have confidence in Darnold to let it fly. He had 36 and 34 pass attempts in the past two games against the Rams and will probably need to throw it more than 30 times in this game.
Darnold to throw an interception (-125)
Only two quarterbacks (Geno Smith and Tua Tagovailoa) threw more interceptions than Darnold’s 14 in the regular season, and Darnold led the league with 20 total turnovers. The Patriots defense has five interceptions in three playoff games.
Drake Maye to throw an interception (-125)
New England’s mediocre offensive line allows frequent pressure on Maye, who took 47 sacks in the regular season and 15 more in three playoff games, and pressure leads to forced throws and turnovers. Darnold seems more likely to throw a pick, but Maye threw one in each of the first two playoff games.
Kenneth Walker Under 73.5 rushing yards (-110)
The Darnold prop for pass attempts is tied into this one. The Patriots allowed 48, 79 and 87 yards rushing in the three playoff games — with Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert running for 57 of the 87 in the wild-card round. Walker had 19 carries for 62 yards (3.3 per carry) against the Rams in the NFC title game, and the New England front seven is stronger against the run than the other defenses Walker has faced in recent weeks. Walker went over this posted total in only six of 19 games this season.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba to score a touchdown (-110)
Admittedly, laying a price on any player to score a touchdown is not the sharpest bet, but there’s no doubt who will be Seattle’s go-to target. Smith-Njigba, the league’s leader in receiving yards, had 10 touchdowns in the regular season and two scores in two playoff games. He’s the most likely MVP aside from the quarterbacks.
Bryce Baringer Over 3.5 punts (-150)
Patriots coach Mike Vrabel wants to lean on his defense and is unlikely to become a riverboat gambler on fourth downs in this game. Baringer punted eight times against the Texans and eight times against the Broncos.
Number of different players to attempt a pass: Over 2.5 (+150)
Darnold (oblique) and Maye (shoulder) each enter the game with injury concerns, so if either quarterback takes a hit and exits the game for a while, this prop probably wins. Of course, a trick play is always a possibility, especially coming from creative offensive coordinators such as the Patriots’ Josh McDaniels and the Seahawks’ Klint Kubiak.
Will the final score of Super Bowl LX be the same as any past Super Bowl? (Yes +400)
This is the first time I’ve seen this prop, which is posted at the Westgate SuperBook. It’s OK to take a shot on a few plus-priced props for entertainment in this game. If the score is somewhat normal — such as my prediction of 23-20 — there’s a good shot of cashing at 4-1 odds. Here are some other scores from past Super Bowls that we could see this time: 31-24, 31-17, 30-13, 28-24, 27-23, 27-17, 27-10, 24-21, 24-10, 23-16, 21-17, 20-17, 20-16, 17-14, 16-13.
Will the game be decided by 3 points? Yes (+450)
The Eagles blew out the Chiefs last year, but prior to that this prop hit three years in a row (Chiefs 25, 49ers 22; Chiefs 38, Eagles 35; Rams 23, Bengals 20).
For more Super Bowl 60 best bets, visit the Super Bowl betting hub, exclusively on VSiN.
