Matt Youmans – NFL Week 1 Best Bets:
After an offseason of hype, the Super Bowl favorites got an immediate reality check. The Rams flew from Los Angeles to Australia at the last minute and looked unprepared while sleepwalking through a humbling 27-7 loss to the 49ers. It was a reminder to the betting public to not always believe the hype, especially early in the season.
Week 1 tends to be unpredictable. Remember when the Raiders upset the Patriots to open last season? Las Vegas finished 3-14 while New England went 14-3 and reached the Super Bowl. Don’t overreact to anything that happens this weekend. Here are my best bets:
Atlanta Falcons at Pittsburgh Steelers (-6)
It’s last call for Aaron Rodgers, who claims this is definitely the final year of his NFL career. He said something similar a year ago at this time, but this time he really means it. Time catches up to everyone, and we are about to find out how much this 42-year-old quarterback has left.
Rodgers’ second year with the Pittsburgh Steelers begins Sunday with a new coach. Mike Tomlin is out and Rodgers’ old friend in Green Bay, Mike McCarthy, is now in charge. While the McCarthy-Rodgers reunion is one of the top storylines of the season, the betting line on the Falcons-Steelers game is one of the hottest topics of Week 1.
Atlanta will open the season by starting the No. 3 quarterback on its depth chart. With former first-round pick Michael Penix Jr. still rehabbing a knee injury and Tua Tagovailoa sidelined after suffering an oblique injury Thursday in practice, journeyman Cooper Rush gets the call. Pittsburgh has moved from a 3-point favorite early in the week to -6.
Rush is nothing special. In nine years with the Cowboys and Ravens, he owns a 9-7 record as a starter. Rush lost both of his starts with Baltimore last season and threw four interceptions with no touchdown passes. Still, the truth is Rush might not be a downgrade from Tagovailoa, who looked terrible in the preseason, so the line move looks like a minor overreaction.
The Falcons do have some positive attributes. Kevin Stefanski is a major coaching upgrade and Bijan Robinson is an elite running back. Robinson’s playmaking ability is the primary reason Atlanta could pull the upset, but the Pittsburgh defensive front will be focused on containing Robinson and forcing Rush to do something through the air.
Rodgers did not make many big plays last year when his mobility was severely limited. His numbers were good — 3,322 passing yards, 65.7% completions, 24 touchdowns, seven interceptions – but he made mostly short throws and used his high football IQ to dissect defenses.
I bet the Steelers at -3 (-125) early in the week and wanted to fade Tagovailoa. At this point, it doesn’t make sense to lay a bigger number against a similarly bad quarterback. Chris Boswell is one of the league’s most accurate long-range kickers and Pittsburgh will probably count on his leg to help win this game. With 41 being a key number for totals bettors, look under the DraftKings total of 41.5 in what is likely to be a low-scoring grinder.
Most importantly, the Steelers just need to win. I’m using Pittsburgh on multiple Circa Survivor entries and that has become a popular pick this week.
Best Bet: Falcons-Steelers Under 41.5 (-115)
Dallas Cowboys (-3) at New York Giants
John Harbaugh’s debut as Giants coach is being hyped as a turning point for the franchise, and Harbaugh can start by turning around this one-sided rivalry on Sunday night. The Cowboys have won 16 of the past 18 meetings, with New York’s only two wins coming in Week 18 games.
Dallas has legitimately high expectations due to its defensive improvements and a Dak Prescott-triggered offense that will be explosive as usual. But the defense will get an early stress test. Harbaugh has built a bigger offensive line, the running backs are physical and tough, and quarterback Jaxson Dart is a playmaker. The Giants’ strength could be their defensive front, so don’t be surprised if Harbaugh’s team wins the battle on the offensive and defensive lines.
Best Bet: Giants +3
Five more plays for Sunday:
Browns +8.5 at Jaguars
Colts +3.5 vs Ravens
Cardinals +9.5 at Chargers
Eagles -5.5 vs Commanders
Vikings -1.5 vs Packers
For more NFL Week 1 best bets, visit the NFL Week 1 betting hub, exclusively on VSiN.
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