Wes Reynolds: NFL Week 1 Best Bets
Here are my NFL Week 1 best bets:
Baltimore Ravens/Indianapolis Colts Over 47.5
A new era begins in Baltimore as the Ravens have a new head coach for the first time since 2008. Jesse Minter returns as head coach after spending four seasons on John Harbaugh’s defensive staff (2017-2020). Minter also served as defensive coordinator for older brother Jim Harbaugh at both Michigan and with the Chargers. Anthony Weaver also returns to Baltimore as defensive coordinator. So, the scheme should be the same, but the Ravens are older on defense, and Minter’s defense with the Chargers allowed 38 points (just through the first 3 quarters) and 401 yards. The Colts offense was tops in the league for the first half of the season and stayed near the top until the Achilles injury to Daniel Jones.
Offensively, Declan Doyle joins as coordinator after one season with the Bears in the same role, but his first as play caller. However, Doyle was tasked with the halftime adjustments, and Chicago had seven come-from-behind victories last season. Lamar Jackson will be more under center in a new scheme behind a rebuilt offensive line, especially in the interior. Nevertheless, Lamar is 9-1 against Lou Anarumo-coordinated defenses. The Colts have also struggled to get a consistent pass rush for the last several seasons and did not seem to add much help in that department.
New Orleans Saints +7 at Detroit Lions
After going 15-2 in 2024, the Lions predictably regressed, but most did not expect them to regress out of the playoffs with a 9-8 record. The offensive weapons at the skill positions are still there, but Jared Goff, who saw no preseason action, is now behind an offensive line with three new starters.
New Orleans went just 6-11 in Kellen Moore’s first season but did finish 4-1 SU and 5-0 ATS in their final five games and seemingly found a permanent answer at QB with Tyler Shough, who went 5-4 as a rookie starter. The Saints also return four starters on the offensive line and add a new weapon with Travis Etienne out of the backfield.
It is not just the OL in a bit of flux for Detroit. Both starting safeties (Branch and Joseph) are out for this game.
This is also not a good spot for Detroit from recent history. Favorites of 6+ points, who failed to make the playoffs the previous season, are 4-12 ATS in the first four games of the regular season the following year over the last four seasons.
TEASER OF THE WEEK
Houston Texans +7.5/NY Jets +7.5
THE OTHERS
Minnesota Vikings -125 ML vs. Green Bay Packers
Packers/Vikings Under 46.5
Tampa Bay Buccaneers/Cincinnati Bengals Under 50.5
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