Michael Lombardi – A look ahead to Week 10 in the NFL:
If last night is any indication of the weekend of NFL football that lies ahead, we will be glued to our couches all morning and night on Sunday. Thankfully, with daylight savings time forcing the sun to go down early, it makes watching from the couch more enjoyable. What we witnessed last night was important to note and understand.
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The Ravens are no longer the old Ravens. The versatility of their offense no longer has them being a team that needs to play from in front. Yes, they still play their best with the lead, ranking fourth in the NFL in the key statistic of first half point differential with an +55 margin. Over the last 30 years, it has been proven that teams who enter halftime with the lead are destined for great things. The Super Bowl winner often comes from a team in the top five in this category. At the halfway mark, here are the top five teams:
Detroit +91
Washington +70
LA Chargers +65
Baltimore +55
Minnesota +44
Dallas was the best team last year in this category. We learned if they didn’t have the lead, they couldn’t play winning football in a different style. It was essential for them to play from in front, which was also the case for the Ravens. Remember when they got behind the Chiefs in the AFC Championship game? They panicked and fell apart. This year’s team is completely different. They have been behind the Bengals in the fourth quarter in both games and found ways to win—with much help from Zak Taylor’s lack of game management and the Bengals lack of being a physical team.
The differnce lies with Lamar Jackson and his ability to make accurate throws under pressure. When Al Michaels (great tie knot last night) asked Kirk Herbstreit who else could tip toe down the sideline and make a spectacular run, Herbie said “no one.” And he was right. Jackson always could electrify us with his runs. Now, his arm is as exciting.
What about the Ravens defense? Can a defense this bad win against the forward pass win the Super Bowl? And how bad is this defense? Consider these numbers: On throws over 11 yards, they have allowed 64 completions in 103 attempts, for 1,380 yards, 13.3 per attempt. In the fourth quarter alone, they have allowed 81 completions in 130 attempts, for 1,056 yards, 8.12 per attempt. For them to overcome this lack of pass rush and coverage, their offense needs to control the ball and keep scoring. They are -24 in the fourth, which needs to be corrected as it’s clear they aren’t improving on defense.
What you love about the Ravens is they can win with any style. What you hate about them is whenever they face a good passing game, or even a bad one, they are vulnerable. If this isn’t corrected soon, Lamar’s best season might be in vain.
NFL QB Ratings
TOP FIVE
1. Lamar Jackson – He might have clinched the MVP vote last night.
2. Josh Allen – Allen is playing under control and letting his teammates help him.
3. Jayden Daniels – By far the best rookie and one of the best in the league.
4. Jared Goff – Never throwing more than 25 times in the game and making the most of each throw.
5. Kirk Cousins – Each week he continues to improve. And is the reason the Falcons are on top of the South. So why did they draft Penix?
BOTTOM FIVE
28. Daniel Jones – Still cannot make plays down the field, his 6.2 YPA is one of the worst in the NFL for starters.
29. Caleb Williams – Williams has made some incredible plays on the move, yet, struggles to make plays when he has to throw the ball over 10 yards.
30. Mac Jones – He was mistake prone in New England and will that trend continue this week against the blitz heavy Vikings?
31. Bryce Young – Young knows where to throw the ball, the problem is his lack of power in his throws, which allows the defense to get a great break on the ball. His lack of arm strength wasn’t apparent in college. It is in the NFL.
32. Will Levis – His shoulder is healed for the time being. His mistake-prone play probably isn’t.
2024 Power Ratings
When you examine the NFC, the Eagles have emerged as possibly the second-best team. Their numbers defensively have improved since the bye week. Their offense has found their footing by understanding, running the ball is the key to their success. Yes, I know the Commanders are in first place by a half of game and have been outstanding all season. However, I’m not convinced they can beat the Eagles and win the East. At the half way mark of the season the Commanders have been a great story and the addition of Marshon Lattimore helps their porous secondary. I’m just not sure they can handle the Eagles the way they are playing.
- Detroit
- Buffalo
- Baltimore
- Philadelphia
- Kansas City
- Washington
- Pittsburgh
- Houston
- LA Chargers
- Green Bay
- Chicago
- Minnesota
- Denver
- San Francisco
- Tampa Bay
- Arizona
- Cincinnati
- NY Jets
- Indianapolis
- Seattle
- LA Rams
- New Orleans
- Atlanta
- NY Giants
- Cleveland
- Miami
- Dallas
- Jacksonville
- Las Vegas
- Tennessee
- New England
- Carolina
Hall & Oates Play: I Can’t Go For That
This week’s handicapping card features eight road teams as favorites. It also features seven games with a point spread of six or more. Only two games are under the key number of three, and five games with the spread of four or under. Tricky card. There are so many games I want to call Daryl and John to eliminate. The Bears look like a good play, until you analyze the numbers and understand Caleb Williams isn’t playing well. In every analytical category, Williams is in the bottom third of quarterbacks who have attempted over 150 passes. Williams is 26-76 on throws over 10 yards and 7-33 on throws over 20 yards. I want to take the Bears, but Williams scares me, and I have no interest in taking the Patriots. So, sing Daryl, sing John.
NFL Line of the Week
The Giants are 6.5-point favorite against the Panthers, and I am tempted to take them. Go ahead and call me an idiot How can the Giants be almost a touchdown favorite vs. anyone, including Oregon? The point spread isn’t an endorsement of the Giants, rather a statement about how bad the Panthers are playing, especially with Bryce Young under center. The line opened at 5.5 and when head coach Dave Canales announced Young as the starter it jumped to 6.5. The Panthers lack offensive skill talent at the wide receiver position. They can run the ball effectively which he has been the achilles heel of the Giants’ defense. Can you take the Panthers and the 6.5—no chance, not even with their win over the Saints last week.
For more NFL Week 10 analysis and best bets, visit the NFL Week 10 Hub exclusively on VSiN.
