Michael Lombardi – A look ahead to Week 11 in the NFL:

The NFL football world has lost their minds. It’s been happening for some time, as analytics, with full support from the national media, has taken over the game. Passing up points is now acceptable. Who wants three points? The only coaches who are willing to kick are the ones winning Super Bowls. Don’t let facts get in the way of the decisions, keep passing up points. The ESPN chart always says “GO.” 

Last night was the ultimate. With 8:32 to go in the game, the Washington Commanders have a chance to take a one-point lead. Now, I realize a one-point lead is rather fleeting.  However, if they take the lead, they have a pretty good chance of getting the ball back and then adding or retaking the lead, depending on what the Eagles accomplish with their next possession. I completely understand the one-point lead was temporary. It was like a pool player making the easy shot, to spin the cue ball back to make a more difficult one, with a better opportunity to win the game. Taking the field goal then was adding to the points board, not winning the game. The three points were just the setup to allow a team to be in position to win—not become the winner. 

 

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All night, the Washington offense struggled. They scored their lowest output of the season, 18 points, the second time in the last four weeks a good defense has slowed them down. They were struggling to get the ball to their best player, receiver Terry McLaurin, and their usual third-down success was being challenged. The Eagles’ defense was dominating the game—and because of the missed field goals, the Commanders were still able to win the game. Until they had a brain fart. 

Last night, the Commanders’ Hollywood season seems to have a shelf life. This isn’t me bailing on their chances of making the playoffs. Rather, my understanding is that as the level of competition rises, the Commanders cannot keep up. Overall, they have improved and look as though they are on the right track. From Dan Quinn and Adam Peters’ work, the Commanders have altered the culture, going from bad to good. As the great management guru Jim Collins once said, going from good to great is hard. The great level isn’t going to happen overnight. It’s probably one or two offseasons away.  Winning the East is in their sight because of the work and the play of Jayden Daniels.  They need to improve both lines—which is why they struggle when playing the better teams in the league. After last night, we need to lower our expectations, as they are not going to win the East. They are wildcard contenders. With Dallas on the schedule twice, Tennessee, New Orleans, along with Atlanta and Philadelphia again, Washington should be able to get to ten wins, which easily clinches a playoff spot. 

When the Commanders enter the playoffs, they will have opportunities to win games, as they are not an easy out. If they face a team with an average or below-average defensive line, their offense will come to life. As an example, when facing a team like the Falcons, the Commanders can match them play for play—it’s a fair fight.  For them, the playoffs will all be about seeding.  So don’t be disappointed with the loss last night.  Be more disappointed with the stupid decision-making of not taking the lead. 

NFL QB Ratings

TOP FIVE        

1. Lamar Jackson – Big game Lamar needs to show up this week.

2. Josh Allen – Allen is right; it is just another game in Week 11. But it’s important for the confidence of the Bills.

3. Jayden Daniels – Needs to get the ball to McLaurin. 

4. Joe Burrow – Burrow is always great in November, especially coming off a loss.  18-7-1 ATS after a loss. 

5. Jalen Hurts – Hurts has played well the last five weeks, as running the ball has been the key for his passing game. 

BOTTOM FIVE

28. Gardner Minshew – He can get hot, and if the Raiders can run the ball on Miami, they might pull and upset. 

29. Caleb Williams – Williams needs to speed his game up and become more accurate. 

30. Mac Jones – Another week like last week, Jones will get benched. 

31. Will Levis – He didn’t make a mistake last week, but he didn’t make too many plays either. 

32. Anthony Richardson – He is so inconsistent, and the Colts need to borrow the Matt LaFleur playbook he used for Malik Willis.   

2024 NFL Power Ratings

The Ravens would be higher, and a clear AFC Super Bowl Contender if they can improve on their pass defense.  We are at the time of the year when defense matters, big time.  The scoring will slowly come down and the teams with the best defenses make the most progress.  The Ravens cannot let a year when Lamar Jackson plays so well go by the wayside.  Significant improvement needs to start now—the Steel City.

  1. Detroit
  2. Philadelphia
  3. Buffalo
  4. Baltimore
  5. Kansas City
  6. Pittsburgh
  7. Minnesota
  8. Green Bay
  9. LA Chargers
  10. Denver 
  11. Washington
  12. Arizona
  13. San Francisco
  14. Tampa Bay
  15. Houston
  16. NY Jets
  17. Atlanta
  18. Indianapolis
  19. LA Rams
  20. Chicago
  21. Seattle
  22. Cincinnati
  23. Miami
  24. NY Giants
  25. New England
  26. New Orleans
  27. Cleveland
  28. Jacksonville
  29. Dallas 
  30. Tennessee
  31. Las Vegas
  32. Carolina

Hall and Oates Play: I Can’t Go For That

Why do professional bettors still love the Jets?  I understand why this number moved from 1.5 to 4 with the news of Joe Flacco being benched and Anthony Richardson taking over. Still, what have the Jets demonstrated over the last ten weeks to give anyone comfort? I don’t get it. Their numbers are horrible: 30th in rushing yards per game, 29th in rushes and completions, 26th in points scored, 30th in passing yards and 23rd in yards per attempt. Yes, I know Richardson cannot complete passes, but still, the Colts can run the ball, and the Jets struggle to stop the run.  This was an easy call for me, cue Daryl and John. I’m out. 

Line of the Week

Why is the Rams-Patriots line coming down from 5.5 at open to 4 now?  What am I missing? The Patriots haven’t been that good on either side of the ball (I am discounting the Bears game) and gave up 400 yards to the Titans and Mason Rudolph. I favor Sean McVay over Jerod Mayo, Matt Stafford over Drake Maye, and I feel the bounce-back happens for the Rams. Yes, I know it’s a long trip with an early start. Losing badly at home takes all those challenges away, and I expect the Rams to play well. I love the number is coming down. 

Enjoy the games.

For more NFL Week 11 analysis and best bets, visit the NFL Week 11 Hub exclusively on VSiN.

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