Michael Lombardi – A look ahead to Week 14 in the NFL:

Even though the Detroit Lions are wounded from all the injuries they have sustained during the NFL season, they still have incredible grit. And grit is what makes champions.  Angela Duckworth wrote a book about Grit, explaining the secret to outstanding achievement is not talent but grit: a special blend of passion and persistence. Grit is about having passion and perseverance for long-term goals. Gritty people can maintain their determination and motivation over long periods despite experiences with failure and adversity. Those three sentences sum up the Lions last night and all season. 

Take nothing away from Green Bay; they also demonstrated tremendous grit. They won’t win the NFC North this year but will surely be a playoff team and a hard out for anyone in the first round. Green Bay is a young team. Young teams need to learn how to win close games—how to increase the amount of internal grit, finding ways to win.

 

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The Lions respected Green Bay so much, they risked losing the game with a fourth down call instead of kicking the field goal to put them in the lead with a little more than 40 seconds to go. Giving Green Bay any time left indoors in ideal conditions concerned Lions head coach Dan Campbell, so he decided to play the game the way he told his team he would—aggressively. My sense of the decision was more related to his defense, or lack thereof, as leaving Green Bay any time left could have resulted in a winning kick. It was a gritty move by Campbell, one that paid off. 

What often gets overlooked from the Lions because of their fourth-down aggressiveness is their overall execution. They are a well-trained, fundamentally sound football team who has improved over the season. This high-level execution is why they risked the fourth down call. Last night, the Lions had 32 rushing attempts and 32 completions, for a total of 64 rushes and completions. Anything over 52 is excellent, which clearly demonstrates the effectiveness of the Lions’ execution. In contrast, the Packers had 36 and only had the ball for slightly less than 24 minutes. The Lions ran 76 plays to the Packers 45, which was a good thing because the Lions were struggling to defend the Packers especially in the second half. 

The Lions aren’t a fancy powderpuff team. They are tough and want to play a power game behind their dominating offensive line. Last night, the Packers didn’t want to play man-to-man, so they went to a zone, forcing the Lions to put together long drives. Of their 10 possessions, they had five drives over 10 plays. Their longest plays in the game were 28 yards passing and 20 rushing, so they methodically moved the ball, altering their play style. Last night proved the Lions can play any style and win. 

What made last night so much fun was the game was like an NFL playoff game in style and intensity. As we enter the holiday season, every time we get a playoff-style game before the playoffs is a wonderful gift.

NFL QB Ratings

1. Josh Allen – I don’t see anyone playing a more complete game than Allen. He no longer has to worry about feeding a receiver, he can run the offense. 

2. Lamar Jackson – Has the bye week to rest and get healthy for the stretch run.

3. Jared Goff – Even though he has played better in cold weather lately, he is still more effective in the dome.

4. Joe Burrow – Unless the Bengals change their approach, they will waste Burrow’s talent, and he could become the next Dan Marino. Go to one Super Bowl and not return

5. Jalen Hurts – Playing well within the framework of the offense. 

BOTTOM FIVE

28. Anthony Richardson – Richardson is inconsistent from drive to drive, game to game. Those moments of solid play make are so sweet it creates a belief he will improve

29. Aidan O’Connell – Can he play well two weeks in a row?  If he can make plays against the Chiefs, he should vs. the Bucs. 

30. Will Levis – Improving each week, and now as the home favorite, can he make enough good plays to win? 

31. Drew Lock – Can he throw effectively vs the Saints, but more importantly, can he get solid pass protection? 

32. Mac Jones – Played his best football in two years in the fourth quarter vs the Texans.  Was it him playing well, or was it the Texans not caring?  

2024 NFL Power Ratings

This week, there has been little movement in the rankings. This is due to the amount of games played and how hard it becomes to move up in the rankings. It takes four to five games for improvement to translate into these numbers. The good teams can stay good, even when playing poorly, which is something that needs to be addressed when handicapping. The bad teams, like Carolina, which is slowly improving need to be addressed when deciding on the point spread. Analyzing the last five weeks is more important than the total accumulation of games. 

  1. Detroit
  2. Philadelphia
  3. Buffalo
  4. Minnesota
  5. Pittsburgh
  6. Green Bay
  7. Kansas City
  8. Baltimore
  9. Washington
  10. Denver
  11. LA Chargers
  12. Houston
  13. Tampa Bay
  14. Miami 
  15. Arizona
  16. Cincinnati
  17. Seattle
  18. Rams
  19. NY Jets
  20. Indianapolis
  21. San Francisco
  22. Chicago 
  23. New Orleans
  24. NY Giants
  25. Dallas
  26. Atlanta
  27. Cleveland
  28. Tennessee
  29. New England
  30. Jacksonville
  31. Las Vegas
  32. Carolina

Hall & Oates Play: I Can’t Go For That

Every Sunday morning, I get ready for the upcoming week’s games. I’ve done all my research for the Sunday games; now my attention turns to the next week. So I prepare my next week sheet, starting with getting the games in the correct order and posting the look ahead lines, knowing full well those lines will change based on the outcomes of the Sunday and Monday games. This week, I noticed Minnesota was playing Atlanta in Minneapolis. Kirk Cousins returns to hear the skol from the opposite side of the field.  I thought this would be a fun game to watch, and the line would be close. Boy, was I wrong. The line opened at 5.5 and now is moving towards 6. I realize Cousins threw four horrible picks against the Chargers, which might have affected the number, but 6 points?  I also realize Atlanta isn’t a great team—poor defense, no pass rush, and a highly overrated offensive line that causes Cousins to take too many hits.  Still, it made no sense.  Then I ran my numbers, and they had Minnesota as a 7-point favorite. I wanted to play the revenge angle for Cousins, feeling this would be a close game, with Atlanta capable of pulling the upset. With two of my critical indicators telling me to bet Minnesota and my gut screaming Falcons, I decided the best thing I could do was to call John and Daryl and let them sing.  

Line of the Week

We had Jonathan Von Tobel on the Lombardi Line this week discussing the Jets/Miami game. JVT was amazed the line was moving away from the Jets which has been the case for the last ten weeks. The so-called “sharps” have loved the Jets all season.  Why? I don’t have a clue, neither does JVT. Yet week after week, the money comes pouring in on the Jets, and they don’t cover. Like a dog that can’t stop chasing a car, the sharps came back the next week after having their pockets emptied, betting the Jets all over again. After we signed off from JVT, guess what happened? The line then moved toward the Jets. Stupid, right? Especially considering Miami loves to feast on the bad teams in the AFC East. Historically, the Jets have struggled when facing the Dolphins. They are 3-13 SU and 4-11-1 ATS since 2016, their least profitable opponent ATS in that span.  Makes no sense unless you take the Fins. 

Enjoy the games.  

For more NFL Week 14 analysis and best bets, visit the NFL Week 14 Hub exclusively on VSiN.

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