AFC Championship Preview

While researching the upcoming AFC Championship preview, I went back and looked at every game Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes played against the Ravens’ defense. The most recent game was in 2021 when Mahomes threw for 343 yards and three touchdowns, losing a 36-35 shoot-out in Week 2 of the season.

In that game, the Chiefs had an 11-point lead going into the fourth quarter. They allowed the Ravens to score two touchdowns in the fourth, each time the Ravens missed the two-point conversion and yet the Chiefs still lost. 

 

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The Chiefs offense ran nine plays in the fourth quarter. They had three first downs and one turnover. The last three drives of the game went interception, punt, fumble. Overall, Mahomes has been sensational in his four games against Baltimore—Twelve touchdowns and two interceptions overall, with seven touchdowns with one interception in Baltimore. 

The Past is the Past

So, what does Mahomes’s past history against the Ravens mean? Nothing, absolutely nothing. Seriously, I wasted my time because then is then, and now is now, and both teams have different players, different schemes, and different approaches.

Past data analysis of two teams is meaningless. Don’t believe me? Ask Aristotle. Yes, the famous Greek philosopher who was the founding father of analytics. Aristotle believed that studying past data was only worthwhile when things could be other than they are. This means if there is no change in the circumstances, then past data applies. If there are changes, it’s meaningless. Therefore, according to Aristotle, my research would be useless in handicapping the upcoming game because both teams have changed in many ways. 

How the Chiefs Have Changed

What isn’t useless is the understanding of how the Chiefs have changed their offensive approach since their Christmas day loss at home to the Raiders. They’re no longer looking for the big play. Mahomes isn’t holding the ball, trying to do the impossible.  They shifted to a more run-centric team, with 80 rushing attempts in the last three games, and have thrown the ball 93 times. 

The results have been impressive, as they have averaged 26 points in the three games that matter since that horrible day (not counting the Chargers game at the end of the year) and averaged 141 yards on the ground. Mahomes has not thrown an interception in those games and has played flawlessly within the framework of the offense. 

Their offensive line has also demonstrated vast improvements, as they have been better at run blocking, allowing the explosive Isiah Pacheco to get a head of steam as he enters the hole. Credit head coach Andy Reid who understood his offense was lacking in explosive players. He realized for them to win in the playoffs, they needed to change. 

All the Pieces Matter

Now comes the hard part.  As police commissioner Ervin Burrell famously said in HBO’s The Wire, “It’s Baltimore, gentleman. The Gods will not save you.”

Winning in Baltimore will be a challenge, and the Gods won’t be on their side. During the revamping of the Chiefs offense, they faced three bad defenses which were bad for various reasons. The Bengals were lacking talent, struggled all season to stop the run, and finished 23rd overall in DVOA. Miami finished 19th but were trending downward due to injuries of their key players. The same could be said for the Bills, who finished 13th and were depleted at linebacker when the Chiefs came to town. 

Baltimore is the best DVOA defense in the NFL, with their multiple fronts and packages.  They held better NFL offenses than the Chiefs to under 20 points—Miami, San Francisco, and Detroit—so this will require the Chiefs to be perfect on Sunday with their execution.  They cannot have drops; they cannot have false starts, and most of all, they cannot turn the ball over. 

Mike Macdonald, the Ravens’ defensive coordinator, will feel confident in playing man-to-man, not worrying about the Chiefs being able to work the ball down the field. Even though the Chiefs have improved on offense, they are still slow.

You Come at the King, You Best Not Miss

Perhaps the deciding factor in the AFC Championship game will be how the Chiefs compensate for the loss of Joe Thuney at left guard. Baltimore’s best defensive lineman, Justin Madubuike, can create problems inside against backup Nick Allegretti, which can cause problems for Mahomes in the pocket. 

Defeating the Chiefs has always come down to pressure on Mahomes by rushing four.  The Bucs were able to harass Mahomes all game in their Super Bowl.  The Eagles did it until they were tired, and the Chiefs won the second half. 

Mahomes is always the concern when playing the Chiefs. However, Jackson is a huge concern for the Chiefs as the 2023 version of Jackson is different and better than any other version. In the past, if a team could make the Ravens play from behind, taking their runaway, they didn’t have a drop-back passing game to get back into the game.  They do now. 

Jackson has thrown for more yards this season than at any point during his career. His yards per attempt is the highest. His passing attempts are the highest, and his interception percentage is tied for the lowest. Even though his touchdown numbers are not what he threw during his first MVP season, his all-around numbers are better and most importantly, the Ravens offense is more well-rounded.

This will be the first battle between Mahomes and Jackson where Jackson has the better skill players, the better down-the-field passing game, and the ability to come back with a passing game.

AFC Championship Final Verdict

When you reach this final game, two things always matter the most: the ability to adjust during the game and the personnel to handle the adjustments. Baltimore does both well. So do the Chiefs in terms of scheme adjustments. The difference can be whether they have enough talent to handle the personnel adjustment. 

Yes, it’s hard to go against Mahomes and his playmaking talent, but as we have seen, the 3.5 are all gone, and the market is covered with 4s all over. My sense is the line should be 6, but the Mahomes factor clamps it down. For all the Mahomes as an underdog talk, I favor Jackson in this game to play well and make all those teams (like Atlanta) who couldn’t wait to proclaim their lack of interest in him this off-season regret their decision. 

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