NFL Football in December: Nobody Knows Anything
After Tommy “Cutlets” DeVito led the Giants to an upset win over the Packers, causing Packer fans to scream louder than ever they want defensive coordinator Joe Barry fired, it’s only fitting that the essence of this column comes from an episode of The Sopranos title “Nobody Knows Anything.”
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In the episode, Tony Soprano’s best friend, Big Pussy Bonpenisiero, has severe back problems, gets arrested by the Feds, and is accused of being a turncoat for the government. When Tony has his people investigate Big Pussy’s back problems and sudden disappearance, the word gets back to him that “nobody knows anything.” It’s exactly how I feel after watching two teams with so much at stake, Miami and Green Bay, play well below the level of my expectations.
How can Miami give up 28 points, 15 of them in the final four minutes of the game? How can Miami allow 403 yards to the Tennessee offense? How can the Fins not score more than 27 points, especially after having two drives begin inside the Tennessee 13-yard line? How can Green Bay not slow down the Giants’ run game, allowing DeVito to run for 71 yards? How can Green Bay not sack DeVito all game? The “how comes” could go on forever, and the only answer is: This is NFL football in December; nobody knows anything.
In fairness, many of the professional bettors were on the Giants, believing the Packers were overvalued after their impressive win against the Chiefs. The line moved from a steady 6.5 to 5 during the day, then back to 6 before kickoff. I wasn’t buying the overvalued angle. Once the news broke that Tyrod Taylor wasn’t going to be the starter, my handicapping centered on the Packers. It was a must-win for them, and they were feeling confident, playing their best football of the season.
My reasons for taking the Packers were simple. The Giants are a one-dimensional team with DeVito, and they would struggle to cover the Packers receivers. After the game, both beliefs proved correct; only the Packers failed to stop the one dimension, allowing DeVito to escape the pocket time and time again, as if they were surprised he could run.
This game plan, or lack of a plan, by Barry is why Packer fans are always reluctant to buy into their team. Barry hasn’t been able to stop the run against any team, even with a good defensive front. It’s been the Packers’ kryptonite since Barry replaced Mike Pettine, which I understood beforehand. I only felt that since we ALL knew the Giants were going to run, stopping the run would be a little easier.
All Packer fans (including my cousin Big Daddy) wonder how they can hold Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs to 19 points and can’t hold DeVito to under 20. It wasn’t as if the Giants developed a new plan for the week. Barry had to know it was going to be the quick game passing, runs from all different looks and Saquon Barkley being the featured offensive weapon.
The Packers, by allowing DeVito to escape the pocket because of their poor rush lanes, made him into a bigger cult hero. Now with a three-game winning streak attached to his name, the Giants are feeling good about themselves. Is now the time to fade the Giants? Perhaps, but it comes with a huge risk as you must answer the main question: Are you willing to take the Saints and lay the 4.5 with check down Derek Carr? I’m not ready to answer that one.
In the South Florida game, the handicap was simple. Miami was playing at home with a strong chance to gain home field throughout the playoffs, something they would need to avoid being in cold weather. With the number one seed at stake, how could Miami not dominate a Tennessee team that struggled to play well or score on the road?
Going into the game, the Titans were winless on the road, never scored more than 16 points in a game, and scored 70 total in their prior six losses. They averaged 11.66 points per game and struggled to be consistent on offense. On defense, they cannot cover or tackle in the secondary. Without Jeffery Simmons, their all-everything defensive tackle, the Fins would move the ball with ease. Each point was wrong.
Once Miami lost receiver Tyreek Hill for the first half, we all witnessed why he is the MVP of the league and makes this offense fly. Hill is the linchpin of the offense. When he is not on the field, their protection breaks down, their big play ability falls short, and it exposes all the deficiencies of Tua Tagovailoa’s game. (Don’t kid yourself, Tua was never the MVP of the league, nor is he a top-ten quarterback when Hill isn’t scaring the living Jesus out of every defensive coordinator.) When Hill wasn’t on the field in the first half, it was the first time all season the Miami offense failed to score an offensive touchdown, and they looked completely different.
When Tua can throw in rhythm to his first look, his accuracy is elite. When he has to hold the ball for a split second longer, the protections break down, causing him to move in the pocket. And without Hill, the defense is free to send pressure, not fearing playing man-to-man. Hill must stay healthy for Miami to have a chance.
For as bad as Miami played on both sides, the game was still winnable. They had two chances to win the game. With 2:40 left in the game, having a six-point lead, Miami needed one first down to seal the game. Instead, they were called for holding on third down, allowing the Titans to not use their last timeout, taking only 25 seconds off the clock. The Titans became the explosive offensive team, scoring in five plays. They left Miami with 1:49 left in the game, needing only a field goal to win.
I had such belief and trust in the Miami defense before the game, but without Jaelan Phillips or Jevon Holland on the field, they were unable to get control of the game. In the critical two-minute drive with Hill on the field, Tua failed to move the team, gaining only one first down, then not converting a fourth-and-2 when he was sacked. How can we believe Miami is an elite offense when they failed to produce yards at the most critical time?
Yes, it’s only one game and the first home loss of the year for Miami, yet the way Tennessee played with a physical toughness causes concerns. The 27-point output is rather deceiving, as the Fins were given the ball inside the 13-yard line twice in the fourth quarter for their two scores, and the defense scored seven.
Losing Hill for any portion of the game slows down Miami’s offense, yet have we reached the conclusion that perhaps the NFL has solved the Miami offensive riddle? For me, the fair question to ask and ponder is, can the Dolphins offense play well against a physical defensive front?
Last Friday, after the Pittsburgh loss to New England, I wrote about avoiding the “pencil game,” which means don’t pencil wins in for good teams playing against bad teams. Last night proved that belief correct. It also proved that “nobody knows anything” when it comes to understanding how to best handicap teams playing for nothing against teams playing for something. I made that mistake last week. This week, I hope to know something.
