Michael Lombardi: Thoughts on the NFL season at the halfway point

By
Michael Lombardi
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543
 

 

The Bears are halfway there. Are they living on a prayer?

When the Bears made that awful trade this week, acquiring defensive lineman Montez Sweat from the Commanders, I was accused by most Bears fans (thankfully not VSIN’s own Bill Adee) of being a Bears hater. For the record, I am not a Bears hater. I love their historic franchise from Papa Bear himself George Halas to Mike Ditka, Walter Payton and many others.

 

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Being an analyst means analyzing, not patronizing, so when the Bears give away a high second-round pick and then overpay a good player, someone needs to make the point. I completely understand the Bears needed to increase their payroll to reach the minimum levels or face the consequences. Still, it doesn’t make the decision correct. They easily could have paid Sweat this deal on the open market and saved their high-value second-round pick. They thought differently. Only time will provide the right answer. 

It was well documented I wasn’t a Mitchell Trubisky fan, nor was I a believer in Justin Fields. Now facing the Panthers on Thursday night as we cross into the second half of the season, the Bears will hold two top picks in the draft. These two picks could potentially change their franchise’s fortunes. From Jim Miller, Kordell Stewart, Chad Hutchinson, Kyle Orton, Rex Grossman, Brian Griese and Jay Cutler, Bears fans haven’t had a great passer behind center in the last twenty-plus years. You must go back to the 1979 draft when the Bears almost had a great quarterback—almost, had they listened to Mrs. Tobin.  

Bill Tobin was then the general manager of the Bears, and on the morning of the draft, he said goodbye to his wife and promised her that if Joe Montana were available in the third round, they would make him their selection. He was, and for some untold reason that only Mrs. Tobin knows, the Bears passed and selected Willie McClendon, running back from Georgia. Sixteen picks later, the 49ers selected Joe Montana. What could have been then, their history of not picking the right player or not being honest with the evaluation, provides lessons for what should happen now. And with eight games left, Bears president Kevin Warren and the McCaskey family need to make decisions for the future, starting with do they have the right head coach and the right person picking players. 

None of the Bears’ problems matter for us. We don’t care about next year; we care about making the right decisions with our bets. And for all the people accusing me of hating the Bears, consider some undeniable facts. Had I been a true Bears hater, I would have spent the last five seasons not examining the betting boards, only betting against the Bears regardless of the line. Since 2022, had I done that, I would have won 17 games and lost 7. Had I blindly bet against the Bears since 2018, I would have won 54 times, lost 36, and tied 2. That’s a 58.6-win percentage, resulting in a heavy profit. Since both head coach Matt Eberflus and general manager Ryan Poles took over, they are 5-21 and showing no signs of improvement, so why should any bettor avoid the number—the profits will keep coming.

Any time a coordinator becomes a head coach, his area of expertise must shine brightly, or doubt of his talent as a coach becomes questioned. Certainly, wins matter the most. Then, is one side of the ball headed in the right direction becomes the second criteria.  In the case of Eberflus, both are well below expectations, much like what happened in Las Vegas to Josh McDaniels. McDaniels didn’t win enough, nor did his offense show improvement. The Bears haven’t been good on defense since Eberflus took over. They ranked 32nd in DVOA last year and 30th this season. Even with Sweat, this won’t change.   

With the potential of Justin Fields returning to the Bears offense, which might make bettors inclined to place a wager, consider this. The success rate of the quarterback is defined by does the quarterback throw for 40% of the yards on first down, 60% on second and 100% on third down, with the common denominator being passing attempts plus sacks. Tyson Bagent is at 52.2% in this category, Fields is at 38.7% and ranks 29th overall, slightly ahead of Deshaun Watson, Daniel Jones and Zack Wilson—the top five, Brock Purdy, Josh Allen, Tua Tagovailoa, Jared Goff and Patrick Mahomes. Do the Bears need the next eight games to make their future decisions? As bettors, do we need to stop betting? No is the answer to both questions. 

Week Nine Thoughts

1. Joe Burrow looks like the 2023 version of Joe Montana, and the Bengals’ overall statistical numbers should start last week vs. the 49ers, or else the handicap will be wrong.

2. The line cannot get high enough when the Giants play a good team. How can Tommy DeVito lead the team to points, let alone a win? I love that DeVito is a Jersey kid from Don Bosco Prep. However, his 39 starts in college, from Syracuse to Illinois, weren’t impressive. He ended his career with a 63% completion percentage and a 6.9 yards per attempt. Not good for college, not good for pros. 

3. Kyler Murray is due to return this week against the Falcons. He isn’t going to make much of a difference, especially if he doesn’t show the speed and quickness he once had. I would wait a week to place a bet for or against the Cards. 

4. The Bills have lost five straight games against the spread.  Reminder: this isn’t the same Bills teams as in the past.

5. The Giants and the Jets are a disaster under the lights. This week, the Jets will again be in primetime with the bright lights and are a combined 2-25 in the last 27 night games. When the lights come on, New York goes dark. 

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