Michael Lombardi – Who is winning the NFL MVP race:

We are halfway through the NFL season, which seems impossible, especially considering the bad weather hasn’t arrived. It seems like forever for the season to arrive, and once it does, time puts on its tracksuit and speeds along. The midway point has enlightened us on how many bad teams there are currently in the league and how few have realistic chances of being the next Super Bowl winner. Most everyone’s Super Bowl winner predictions (especially mine) look like garbage. However, those who stayed conservative and picked the best teams from last year look clairvoyant. Besides picking the Super Bowl winner, we spend most of the offseason picking who will be the  NFL MVP. We know it’s a quarterback race, so we can narrow the field. We also know the winner of the NFL MVP must be a team winner—his team has to be the number one or two seed with one of the best records in football. At the halfway point, here are the options:

Lamar Jackson – Baltimore

His odds are at 3-1, and he seems like a great choice to become a back-to-back MVP winner. Jackson has improved this season in almost every category. His bad throws are at 15.5%, the lowest of his NFL career, and his “target rate” is the highest, at 77.6%. What makes this improvement even more impressive is his pressure percentage, which is the highest it has been in three seasons, at 20.1%. Jackson is making great throws while being pressured. 

 

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Josh Allen – Buffalo

Allen is 3-1 to win MVP. The change in offense has really helped cut down on Allen’s mistakes. He is no longer careless with the football, having only two interceptions on the season.  One of the biggest concerns about Allen when leaving Wyoming was his ability to be accurate under pressure. So far this season, his accuracy numbers are at a career high. In his first season, he was at 25.7% of the time throwing bad balls. Now, he is at 13.1%, one point lower than last year. With the Bills being able to run the ball effectively and having better balance in their offense, teams are more reluctant to pressure Allen as those numbers have come down from 19.3% of the time last year to just 13.9% this season. Allen no longer needs to carry the team with his arm and legs, allowing for him to have the highest adjusted yards per attempt in his career at 8.59. That number is 1.5 higher than last year and 1.3 above his career average—all without having a number-one receiver. 

Patrick Mahomes – Kansas City

His odds have shifted from being the betting favorite to being at +450.  With their overtime win against Tampa last night, the Chiefs kept their record unblemished. Mahomes isn’t having a Mahomes-like season. He is doing what is needed to win, yet all his numbers are far from normal. For example, his “on target” numbers, usually around 77%, are currently at 64.3%.  Last season, he was at 80.7. The Chiefs are winning, and Mahomes is making plays at crucial moments. Yet, he doesn’t have that MVP shine. 

Jared Goff – Detroit

The best odds on the board at 7-1, and he’s having the best season of his career. His accuracy has been remarkable, up seven points in his completion percentage from last year and nine above his career average. What stands out this season is Detroit is using less of Goff and getting more.  Last year, he threw the ball 605 times, 35.5 times per game. This year, he has attempted 211 throws, with 55 coming in one game for an average of 26.37 per game. And his adjusted yards are at 9.19, well above his career 7.50.  There is no doubt, Goff is playing his best

I don’t have a vote, but I do in my column. For me, Goff offers the best odds and is playing his best. What more could Goff do to justify winning the NFL MVP?  His team is the best team in the league in large part due to his play.  Why is he getting discredited for being on a good team?  If you really want to give the MVP award to the rightful person, then give it to the Lions’ offensive line. Their offensive line is why they win—their offensive line is why Goff is playing so well, and their offensive line is why their offensive coordinator, Ben Johnson, can be creative and run the ball effectively. 

I understand voting for the offensive line in total is not realistic. My only point in suggesting their offensive line is to not dilute the value of Goff because of the talent around him. Goff has never been my favorite quarterback despite his success in Los Angeles.  I was always worried about his ability to handle the pressure, the weather or anything requiring toughness. All that has changed.  In Detroit, he has become elite with his play and improved his toughness. Do I worry about him reverting to being concerned about the rush or the cold weather?  No. I feel like he has grown as a player and man while the Lions have embraced him. 

My voting order would be Goff, Jackson and Allen. All three are worthy, all three are playing great, and yet only one can be the winner.  Plus, the odds are better for Goff, and since he has won in Minnesota and Green Bay, it’s hard for me not to see them as the number-one seed in the NFC.  If that holds, then how isn’t Goff the NFL MVP?

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