Minnesota Vikings 2024 Predictions and Odds:

It will be a transitional year for the Vikings, but head coach Kevin O’Connell has gotten a lot out of this team in his two years at the helm. The Vikings went 13-4 in 2022 and were the most popular regression candidate in the league coming into 2023. It came to fruition, as the Vikes went 7-10. The irony is that they had a -18 point differential in 2023 and a -3 point differential in 2022, but had a difference of six wins.

The defense was markedly better under Brian Flores in 2023, as he blitzed, blitzed, and blitzed some more. The offense was far worse, but the Kirk Cousins and Justin Jefferson injuries obviously played a huge role. Could we be sleeping too much on the Vikings in 2024?

 

***Top NFL Resources***

*Join thousands of other sports bettors and unlock access to picks, public betting splits data, & the VSiN live video broadcast by upgrading to VSiN Pro. Grab your first month for less than $10.*

Offense

It seems likely that Sam Darnold will start until O’Connell feels like first-round pick J.J. McCarthy is ready to take over. Maybe that doesn’t happen at any point this season and McCarthy learns the job from the sideline. This was a 6-4 team through 10 games last season that bottomed out. Injuries will do that, even if this was a team ticketed for some tough times.

Cousins is off to the Falcons and Jefferson is off to the bank with a massive four-year, $140 million extension. The backfield will look different with Aaron Jones instead of Alexander Mattison and that could help a running game that ranked 25th in Rush EPA. Losing Cousins and Jefferson obviously skewed the numbers for the passing game, but negatively impacted the running game as well.

Darnold has a 63/56 TD/INT ratio in his career across 66 games with three different teams. O’Connell is a great offensive mind and something of a QB whisperer, but the keys to the car could quickly go to McCarthy, who had a 44/9 TD/INT ratio as a two-year starter at Michigan.

Defense

Minnesota graded as an average defense in a lot of areas, as Flores’ uber-aggressive style was both a blessing and a curse. The Vikings blitzed over 51% of the time per Pro-Football-Reference, but only recorded a 21.9% Pressure% and 43 sacks, which both ranked around league average. They allowed the fifth-most yards after catch, while allowing the eighth-fewest air yards.

To remedy those issues, they signed or re-signed a bunch of guys up front, headlined by Jonathan Greenard (12.5 sacks) and Andrew Van Ginkel (6 sacks). They also signed a terrific linebacker in Blake Cashman (106 tackles). With former Browns exec Kwesi Adofo-Mensah pulling the personnel strings, I can’t help but feel like this group will take a step forward.

Outlook

In a loaded division, the Vikings are understandably viewed in a pessimistic light with their win total of 6.5, but bettors are bullish on that number with a heavy vig on the Over. As mentioned, this is a sharp front office that seemed to love McCarthy and the fit with O’Connell, but I remain skeptical. I’m also curious how impatient they become with Darnold. I do really like this defense, though, and O’Connell gets a lot out of his teams. I wouldn’t bet this, but I like it for contests or pools.

Minnesota Vikings Pick: Over 6.5 Wins

RELATED ARTICLESMORE FROM AUTHOR