NFL underdogs continued their month-long run of success on Sunday, going 8-5-1 ATS. Dogs are now 38-24-1 ATS (61%) on the season. The big surprise from yesterday came with totals. Much to the delight of the betting public and the chagrin of the sportsbooks, overs produced their first winning week of the season going 8-6. Unders dip to 37-26 (59%) overall.
Now we turn our attention to the final game of Week 4: Monday Night Football.
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8:15 p.m. ET: Los Angeles Rams (2-1) at San Francisco 49ers (1-2)
These NFC West rivals are coming off opposite Week 3 performances. The Rams took care of business against the Cardinals, winning 20-12 and covering as 3.5-point road favorites. On the flip side, the 49ers fell to the Broncos 11-10, losing straight up as 1.5-point road favorites.
This line opened with the 49ers listed as a 1.5-point home favorite. The public thinks the wrong team is favored and they're rushing to the window to grab the points with the defending champion Rams. However, despite 75% of bets backing Los Angeles, we've seen this line remain stagnant. Typically if a %plussign%1.5 dog is getting such lopsided betting, you would likely seeing the line fall to a pick'em or even flip in their favor. However, we haven't seen this happen. This signals a sharp line freeze on the 49ers. Despite the heavy Rams betting, the sportsbooks refuse to drop the line and give out a better number to contrarian 49ers backers. Reading between the lines, it appears as though sharps are backing San Francisco and fading the trendy dog Rams.
The 49ers have value as a rare contrarian home favorite in a heavily bet primetime game. San Francisco is only receiving 25% of bets but 33% of money. The 49ers also have buy-low value as a team that didn't cover their last game against a sell-high team that did cover their last game. Also, why is a 1-2 team favored over a 2-1 team? Shouldn't it be the other way around? If it looks fishy, there is usually a reason for it. Kyle Shanahan has also had Sean McVay's number. Shanahan has won six straight regular season matchups against McVay. Brad Allen, the lead ref, is 56% ATS historically to the home team.
Pros have also targeted the under. It opened at 48 and has plummeted down to 42.5. The under is only receiving 37% of bets but 55% of money, a sharp under bet discrepancy. Divisional unders are 16-5 (76%) this season. The 49ers are 3-0 to the under this season. The Rams are 2-1 to the under.
