MNF Ravens vs. 49ers Week 16 odds and predictions
There won’t be many tidings of comfort, but there will be tidings of joy for one of the fan bases on Christmas Night when the Baltimore Ravens and San Francisco 49ers face off to wrap up Week 16. It is one of the week’s premier games and will be a very physical matchup between two teams that know what it takes to win and run the football effectively.
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This game features No. 2 and No. 5 offenses in yards per carry, the No. 1 and No. 7 offenses in points per drive, the No. 1 and No. 6 defenses in points per drive, and the NFL MVP favorite and the second favorite. What could be better than that?
MORE: Check out our Week 16 NFL Bet Hub for all of this week’s best bets and content
How To Watch Ravens vs. 49ers
Date: Monday, December 25
Time: 8:15 p.m. ET
Channel: ESPN
Ravens vs. 49ers Spread
Lookahead lines pegged this game at 49ers -4.5, but the results from Week 15 and the betting action throughout the week have San Francisco -5.5 as we look ahead to kickoff. These teams have actually only met seven times since Art Modell stole the original Browns and moved them to Baltimore for the 1996 season. The Ravens won the only recent meeting back in 2019 by a 20-17 score. That is the only Kyle Shanahan vs. John Harbaugh matchup between the two.
As mentioned, these are two of the league’s elites. The 49ers boast the league’s best offense by a pretty good margin in a lot of traditional and advanced metrics. They are also +13 in turnover margin, as they entered the week tied with four teams for the fewest giveaways with 12 and are tied with the Jaguars for the most takeaways with 25. Baltimore has forced four fewer turnovers and has turned the ball over four more times.
However, the Ravens have allowed the fewest points per drive with 1.31. San Francisco’s offensive prowess has them atop the league in point differential, but Baltimore is third with the best scoring defense in the league.
This will be the biggest underdog role for the Ravens with Jackson in the lineup since Week 3 of the 2019 season against the Chiefs.
Ravens vs. 49ers Total
The total sits at 47 for this one and we’ve seen it go up slightly throughout the week. Per Jeff Sagarin, these teams have played the 14th (49ers) and 16th (Ravens) strongest schedules. Baltimore has allowed over 30 points twice recently, as the Browns and Rams both achieved that feat. The 49ers surrendered 29 to the Cardinals, but they scored 45 and that outcome was never in doubt.
The 49ers have scored at least 27 points in each of their last six games and in every game since the bye week. Baltimore hasn’t faced a lot of top-tier offenses lately and throughout the course of the season, but they held the Lions to six points and the Chargers to 10 points before Justin Herbert got hurt. They also held Seattle to three points with all of their dynamic skill players.
The 49ers entered this week with the third-fewest missed tackles this season and the Ravens were 12th in that department, but Baltimore had allowed the fewest yards per play with 4.4. Opponents have only scored on 28.8% of drives against the Ravens defense and 32.6% of drives against the 49ers defense, but these are two above average offenses.
Ravens vs. 49ers Player Props
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Isaiah Likely Over 35.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
In three games since Mark Andrews went out, Likely has had 40, 83, and 70 yards. He’s also scored a touchdown in each of the last two games. The line and the increasing total would suggest that the Ravens will be trailing and that there could be more points than expected. Those would both be positive things for Likely, as the Ravens would have to call a more aggressive game or would be calling pass plays in the second half and fourth quarter to keep pace or play catch-up.
1st Quarter Over 9.5 (-110)
Using the handy First Touchdown Tracker of our own Stephanie Kamerschak, you can see that the Ravens have scored the first touchdown in 92.9% of their games and the 49ers have done so in 78.6% of theirs. These teams rank second and third in 1st Quarter Points Per Game with 6.9 and 6.6, as the Ravens are slightly ahead.
With two smart coaching staffs, I would expect the scripted drives to be effective. Also, the Ravens are seventh in points per drive while being 16th in plays per drive. They’ve scored on 42.5% of their possessions overall. The 49ers are first in points per drive and 24th in plays per drive, while scoring on 46.4% of their possessions. These two offenses create some explosive plays and have first-quarter success.
Ravens vs. 49ers Prediction
When presented the opportunity, the 49ers have made statements. They had that bad stretch with three losses, but they pummeled the Eagles on the road and also thumped the Cowboys earlier this season. After the bye week, they rolled Jacksonville on the road. Is this another opportunity for them to do a similar thing? I’m not so sure.
The Ravens are an uncharacteristic collapse against Cleveland away from having won nine in a row. I lean with the Ravens plus the points, but like those two props more.
Lean: Ravens +5.5
Head to our Pro Picks page to see how VSiN analysts are betting Ravens vs. 49ers!
