MNF Chargers vs. Jets Week 9 odds and predictions
Every week, VSiN will be doing an in-depth dive on the week’s Monday Night Football game. In Week 9, that game features the New York Jets hosting the Los Angeles Chargers at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, New Jersey. The Chargers are coming off a blowout win over the Chicago Bears last week, while the Jets earned a comeback win over the New York Giants. These teams are both fighting for spots in the playoffs in the AFC, so this should be an exciting game. With that out of the way, keep reading for our Chargers vs. Jets preview, picks and player props.
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How To Watch Chargers vs. Jets
Date: Monday, November 6
Time: 8:15 p.m. ET
Channel: ESPN
Chargers vs. Jets Spread
The Jets have won three games in a row and they’re 3-0-1 against the spread in their last four contests. This New York team has really exceeded expectations since losing Aaron Rodgers to a torn Achilles, and the defense has been the reason for that. The Jets are sixth in the league in Defensive DVOA this year, and they also have impressive numbers when it comes to both Rush EPA per play allowed and Dropback EPA per play allowed. The problem is that New York is still absolutely abysmal offensively, with Zach Wilson and the passing game being downright horrendous. That makes it hard to envision a scenario in which the Jets keep this game close.
I have no doubts that Breece Hall will hit a big hole or two in the ground game, but Los Angeles’ job defensively will be really easy in this one. The Chargers are going to load the box and do everything they can to make life on Hall difficult. That’ll mean that Wilson will need to find a way to beat the Chargers through the air, and I just don’t see the third-year quarterback doing that. Wilson is currently ranked 30th out of 36 qualifying quarterbacks in PFF’s player grades. Wilson is also ranked 35th in Completion Percentage Over Expected, which is also miserable. And the worst part about it is that Jets wide receiver Garrett Wilson is open constantly. But without Wilson really playing up to the competition — like he did against the Kansas City Chiefs — Los Angeles will be sitting pretty here.
Offensively, you’re probably not going to see Justin Herbert moving the ball down the field the same way he did against the Bears. Herbert threw for 298 yards with three touchdowns and no picks last week, and his QBR was up at 122.7. The Bears are one of the worst defensive teams in the league and the Jets are one of the best. But Herbert is surrounded by talent on the offensive side of the ball, so I think he’ll help Los Angeles find the end zone two or three times in this game. And if the Chargers do that, how exactly will the Jets keep up?
Chargers vs. Jets Total
It’s difficult to take an Under in a game with the Chargers, as they really can struggle to get stops defensively. But Los Angeles is coming off a game in which it held Chicago to 13 points. And all things considered, it doesn’t feel like there’s that much that separates the Bears offense from the Jets offense. So, I’m expecting another good defensive performance from the Chargers. And while I do expect the Chargers offense to have some success, I don’t think they’re going to light it up here. That should mean another primetime Under.
It’s also just hard to ignore that the Under has hit in each of the last four games that the Chargers have played. Their totals are consistently high because of their reputation on both sides of the ball, but they haven’t been involved in a shootout in quite some time.
Chargers vs. Jets Player Props
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Justin Herbert Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns
I had Herbert to go Over 1.5 passing touchdowns against the Bears and he ended up throwing for three scores in that game. This is a matchup that is going to be much tougher for the star quarterback, but I still think it’s crazy that he’s plus money to hit the two-touchdown mark. Herbert has thrown for at least two touchdowns in four of the seven games he has played this year, and the reality is that this game can go Under even if the Chargers score three touchdowns. With that in mind, needing two from Herbert doesn’t seem outrageous. I’d play this every time it’s offered moving forward — no matter who the opponent is.
Chargers vs. Jets Prediction
I understand the logic behind taking the Jets and it really does feel a little too easy to take the Chargers here. But I still think it’s impossible to lay off Los Angeles here. I just don’t think the Jets are capable of coming up with the offense required to cover in a game like this. Of course, they did ultimately do it in a similar game against the Philadelphia Eagles a few weeks ago, but that was an odd game. Philadelphia really gave that one away and I don’t see Los Angeles doing so in a big spot.
Lean: Chargers -3.5
Head to our Pro Picks page to see how VSiN analysts are betting Chargers vs. Jets!
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