A new week begins with seven MLB games and one NFL Preseason game. For an updated breakdown of Monday's betting action, be sure to tune in to the VSiN Market Insights Podcast with Josh Appelbaum. It will be posted at 1 p.m. ET. I'll also be co-hosting the Lombardi Line with Patrick Meagher from noon-2 p.m. and then co-hosting Betting Across America with Mike Pritchard from 3-5 p.m. ET.
In the meantime, let's discuss where the money is flowing for a trio of games today.
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8 p.m. ET: Jacksonville Jaguars at New Orleans Saints
This Monday Night game is the final game of NFL Preseason Week 2. The Jags (0-1 SU, 0-1 ATS) fell to Browns 23-13 in their preseason opener, losing straight up as 3-point home favorites. Similarly, the Saints (0-1 SU, 0-1 ATS) lost to the Ravens 17-14, failing to cover as 1-point road dogs. This line opened with New Orleans listed as a 3.5-point home favorite. Pros and Joes are both laying the points, driving the Saints up from -3.5 to -4. Some shops even reached -4.5 before some Jags buyback brought the line back down. The total opened at 37.5 and has been steamed up to 40. If you're betting the over now, you're late to the party and getting the worst of the number, which is commonly referred to as "chasing steam." Instead, bettors could be eying a buy-low inflated under opportunity. The under is 24-8 (75%) this preseason. When the total is 37 or higher, the under is 10-2 this preseason and 185-116 (62%) since 2014. Jameis Winston is a -190 favorite (66% implied probability) to take the first snap in Week 1 for the Saints. Taysom Hill is %plussign% 140.
8:10 p.m. ET: Kansas City Royals (55-68) at Houston Astros (73-51)
Both of these non-division foes have played well as of late. Kansas City is well out of playoff contention but has gone 6-1 in their last seven games, most recently sweeping the Cubs in Chicago. Meanwhile, Houston leads the AL West by 3.5-games over 2nd place Oakland and just took two of three from Seattle at home. In tonight's series opener, the Royals start lefty David Lynch (3-3, 5.12 ERA) and the Astros send out righty ace Zack Greinke (11-3, 3.43 ERA). This line opened with Houston listed as a hefty -220 home favorite and Kansas City a %plussign% 200 road dog. Pros aren't scared off by the big chalk and have steamed Houston up from -220 to -240. Non-division home favorites are 401-250 (62%) this season. Home favorites -200 or more are 151-57 (73%). The Astros are 60-38 as a favorite. The Royals are 34-51 as a dog. Houston is 28-21 against lefties. Kansas City is 35-50 against righties. Houston is 39-24 at home. Kansas City is 23-37 on the road. The Astros will lean on their bats in this one. Houston is hitting .268, which ranks 1st in MLB. Kansas City is hitting .244, which ranks 12th. There looks to be a slight lean to the under here. The total is 9 with the under juiced up to -115.
9:40 p.m. ET: Seattle Mariners (67-58) at Oakland Athletics (70-55)
This a crucial series for these AL West rivals. The Athletics are currently tied with the Red Sox for the second Wild Card spot but the hard-charging Mariners are only three games behind. Both teams are looking to get back on track, as the Mariners just dropped two of three at Houston while the Athletics just dropped two of three at home to the Giants. In tonight's series opener, Seattle hands the ball to lefty Marco Gonzales (5-5, 4.10 ERA) and Oakland counters with righty Paul Blackburn (0-1, 5.06 ERA). This line opened with the Athletics listed as a short -107 home favorite and the Mariners a -103 road dog. Wiseguys have pounced on the A's at home laying a virtual pick'em price, steaming Oakland up from -107 to -120. Home favorites receiving 10-cents of steam or more are 329-204 (62%) this season. Short home favorites -130 or less are 220-158 (58%), producing roughly %plussign% 31 units. Oakland has mashed lefties this season, going 28-18. We could also be looking at a higher-scoring game in this one. The total is 8.5 with the over juiced to -115, signaling a possible rise to 9. The forecast calls for low 60s with 10 MPH winds blowing out to center.
Remember to check the VSiN Betting Splits every day for money and ticket counts so you can tell who the public is betting on.
