2023-24 NFL Season New York Giants Review

Last week kicked off our series of deep dives on NFL teams whose T Shoe Index power rating increased the most throughout the 2023 NFL season. Today, we will move on to teams that underachieved the most, beginning with the New York Giants, who finished the season ranked 30th in the TSI power ratings. 

The Giants finished the season with a miserable 6-11 record, but did manage to cover the spread in half their games, going 8-8-1 ATS. They were only favored in a single game and failed to cover the spread in their lone instance laying points, while going 8-7 ATS as underdogs.

 

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Above, you’ll see the Giants’ TSI rating as it fluctuated throughout the season. Coming off of 2022, New York projected to be slightly below average, but that almost instantly dropped and remained at least four points below league average the rest of the season. Gross.

Giants Offense

The combination of injuries and subpar quarterback play really hampered this team in 2023. New York cumulatively had 179 games missed in 2023 due to injury and/or IR placements, not to mention the season starter at QB, Daniel Jones, had a passer rating of just 70.5 with 2 touchdowns and 6 interceptions. Tyrod Taylor then took over for Jones and did manage an 89 passer rating but threw just 5 touchdowns to 3 interceptions. This contributed to a drop in points per game from 21.5 in 2022 to 15.5 in 2023.

Some key stats that were indicative of New York’s demise included being 30th in the NFL in EPA per play down from 9th in 2022), 31st in success rate (down from 14th) and 29th in EPA per dropback (down from 12th).

Giants Defense

The regression wasn’t just on the offensive side of the ball; in 2022, the Giants allowed just over 21 points per game but saw that balloon to almost 24 points per game in 2023.

Defensively, they were 22nd in EPA per play (up from 28th in 2022) and 29th in defensive success rate (way down from 16th in 2022).

Giants 2024 Outlook

Their 2024 win total currently sits at 6.5, with the under being juiced to -135. With their best offensive weapon, Saquon Barkley, departed for rival Philadelphia and no clear answer at quarterback, I don’t see how this team is going to win 7 games this year. 

I would have to play Under 6.5 or nothing on the Giants’ win total. Of course, I will produce full win total projections for all 32 teams and release them at some point this summer, so stay tuned for that.

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