NFL 2025 Mock Draft and Early Best Bets:

With so much media hype and speculation surrounding the NFL Draft, the event has turned into a soap opera of sorts. The most polarizing characters, aside from Mel Kiper Jr., are typically the quarterbacks, with this draft’s most dramatic actor being Shedeur Sanders.

As the betting world turns, quarterbacks are often the key to the action. The most popular prop most years — how many quarterbacks will go in the first round — is not an especially hot one this year. Of the three likely to be selected in the first round, Sanders is the most mysterious. Once projected as the possible No. 1 overall pick, the Colorado quarterback seems to be slipping out of the top 10. The DraftKings price on Sanders’ draft position of 8.5 is now sky high at Over -330, a price that’s tough to pay.

 

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What I will play are a different prop on Sanders and two props on another quarterback. Here are my best bets as of now (with lines from DraftKings, FanDuel and Caesars sportsbooks):

* Jaxson Dart to be the second QB selected (+200)

* Dart draft position Under 24.5 (-150)

* Matthew Golden first wide receiver selected (+200)

* Team to draft Shedeur Sanders: Steelers (+550)

* Team to draft Ashton Jeanty: Raiders (-150)

I have been a big believer in the Mississippi quarterback the past two years, mainly due to Dart’s above-average arm strength and mobility. Dart accounted for 32 total touchdowns last season while leading the Rebels to a 10-3 record. He completed 69.3 percent of his passes for 29 touchdowns with six interceptions and also ran for 495 yards and three scores. Dart and Sanders each appear worthy of first-round picks, though there’s probably more debate about Sanders.

Albert Breer of Sports Illustrated wrote, “I’m having a really hard time finding coaches or scouts who believe Sanders is a first-round talent. What I keep hearing is that he isn’t a great athlete on tape and doesn’t have exceptional arm talent. At this point, it feels like it would be surprising if the Raiders, Jets or Saints took him in the top 10.”

The draft is an information-based event that generally has meant a feast for bettors and famine for sportsbooks the past seven years, so it’s no surprise that bookmakers are going conservative and posting fewer props. The market is drying up and getting tougher to beat, which probably will mean fewer best bets this year, but I’ll continue to search for more plays.

For those of us who bet on the draft, working through the exercise of a mock first round has a purpose. In forming a plan of attack for prop wagers, it’s important to analyze team needs and dig for information to predict how the puzzle pieces might fit.

A mock is meant to predict what the teams will do and not what I would do. For example, most signs are pointing to the Raiders taking Boise State running back Ashton Jeanty at No. 6, but that’s not what I would do. If calling the shots in this Las Vegas draft, I would go with Georgia linebacker Jalon Walker or Michigan defensive tackle Mason Graham.

It’s highly unlikely the Giants will go with Sanders at No. 3. New York needs a young quarterback, and the same is true with Cleveland, but the Giants and Browns can get their guy in the second round or by trading up into a spot in the second half of the first round.

This could get wildly unpredictable after the first three picks, especially if multiple trades create chaos. While I reserve the right to roll out a second and final mock next week, here’s the first version:

Matt Youmans NFL Mock Draft 1.0

1. Titans: Cam Ward, QB, Miami
2. Browns: Travis Hunter, CB/WR, Colorado
3. Giants: Abdul Carter, Edge, Penn State
4. Patriots: Will Campbell, OT, LSU
5. Jaguars: Mason Graham, DT, Michigan
6. Raiders: Ashton Jeanty, RB, Boise State
7. Jets: Armand Membou, OT, Missour
8. Panthers: Jalon Walker, LB, Georgia
9. Saints: Jaxson Dart, QB, Mississippi
10. Bears: Tyler Warren, TE, Penn State
11. 49ers: Will Johnson, CB, Michigan
12. Cowboys: Matthew Golden, WR, Texas
13. Dolphins: Kelvin Banks, OT, Texas
14. Colts: Colston Loveland, TE, Michigan
15. Falcons: Mykel Williams, Edge, Georgia
16. Cardinals: Jahdae Barron, CB, Texas
17. Bengals: Mike Green, Edge, Marshall
18. Seahawks: Derrick Harmon, DT, Oregon
19. Buccaneers: Jihaad Campbell, LB, Alabama
20. Broncos: Omarion Hampton, RB, North Carolina
21. Steelers: Shedeur Sanders, QB, Colorado
22. Chargers: Kenneth Grant, DT, Michigan
23. Packers: Tetairoa McMillan, WR, Arizona
24. Vikings: Nick Emmanwori, S, South Carolina
25. Texans: Shemar Stewart, Edge, Texas A&M
26. Rams: Maxwell Hairston, CB, Kentucky
27. Ravens: Malaki Starks, S, Georgia
28. Lions: Grey Zabel, OL, North Dakota State
29. Commanders: Emeka Egbuka, WR, Ohio State
30. Bills: Walter Nolen, DT, Mississippi
31. Chiefs: Josh Simmons, OT, Ohio State
32. Eagles: James Pearce, Edge, Tennessee

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