NFL 2025 Results from the Makinen Strength Ratings:
Last week, I put together an article detailing the results of my strength ratings that are published weekly on VSiN.com for the 2025 season for college football. I get asked about this subject often, and I felt that in the spirit of both accountability and transparency, I would dig into the numbers and share the results with readers. It would provide at least a foundational answer to the oft-asked question, “How do I use these ratings?”
From my experience with this, it seems like people believe in the quality of the ratings on the surface, but without proof of how they help bettors win, it’s hard to understand their value. Well, in that sense, the college football Makinen Weekly Ratings have been winning, and hopefully, many of you have noticed. In this article, I’m going to provide you with an update on the CFB records of the ratings after Week 11’s action and provide a detailed report on what has transpired with the pro ratings this season.
As a little background, the strength ratings I offer are essentially very similar to other power ratings, statistical metrics, and other strength indicators you’ll find offered by other sources. They are simply gauges for determining how good teams are. For each of the sports I offer them for, each rating point essentially equals a point on the field or court, and can thus be used to determine who should win in a given matchup and by how much.
Because I offer three different sets of numbers on the VSiN pages, titled MATCHUP RATINGS, in addition to the Effective Play-by-Play Ratings I’ve been sharing in articles lately, each of these numbers can vary and may offer conflicts for any number of contests. The important thing to know here is that they are each derived from different formulas. Hopefully, the results I’m about to share with you can help you decide what numbers you find most important. Interestingly, the Effective Play-by-play Ratings had their biggest NFL week thus far in Week 10. I’ll share more about that on Tuesday.
Hopefully you read Friday’s COLLEGE FOOTBALL STRENGTH RATINGS RESULTS article. If not, I encourage you to review that information. For now, here are some of the highlighted records updated after the Week 11 action this past weekend:
Power Ratings Overall Point Spreads Record: 631-576 ATS (52.3%)
When PR’s project the home team to win ATS: 356-296 ATS (54.6%)
In FBS GAMES: 302-251 ATS (54.6%)
In GREEN STAR games, 210-188 ATS (52.8%).
Effective Strength Ratings Overall Point Spreads Record: 636-567 ATS (52.9%) – This went up after a 68-47 Week 11 result
When ESR’s project the home team to win ATS: 337-265 ATS (56%)
In FBS GAMES: 296-251 ATS (54.1%)
In GREEN STAR games: 274-264 ATS (50.9%).
Effective Strength Ratings Overall Totals Record: 649-565 (53.5%) – This also improved after a 62-52 result in Week 11
When ESR’s projected UNDER the total: 323-272 (54.3%)
In CONFERENCE GAMES: 398-338 (54.1%)
In GREEN STAR games: 194-167 ATS (53.7%).
Bettors’ Ratings Overall Point Spreads Record: 586-618 ATS (48.7%)
In NON-CONFERENCE GAMES: 217-257 ATS (45.8%)
In FCS GAMES: 242-290 ATS (45.5%)
In GREEN STAR games: 334-320 ATS (51.1%)
Bettors’ Ratings Overall Totals Record: 627-583 ATS (51.8%)
In GREEN STAR games: 205-179 ATS (53.4%)
Note that these records encompass all college football board games, totaling 1,229 games, and producing such records is commendable.
Before sharing the various results from the 2025 NFL season for the different strength ratings I offer, I thought it would be best to direct you to the spots on the VSiN website where you can view these ratings. They are here:
NFL Makinen Weekly Ratings
These are the formulated game projections I provide on a weekly basis using my Power Ratings, Effective Strength Ratings, and Bettors’ Ratings. These are the numbers that I am analyzing for this article.
Makinen NFL Power Ratings
These are the raw ratings for every team in FBS and FCS that I use to formulate the projections above. Looking at the numbers from this perspective gives readers a macro view of how I gauge all the teams. The Power Rating is somewhat of a manually adjusted number I derive from analyzing box scores of games, the Effective Strength Ratings are a metric based upon scoring stats and schedule strength. The Bettors’ Ratings are a calculation of how the betting market gauges a team based upon closing lines and past opponents. The Recent Ratings are a calculation of Effective Strength in recent games. The Strength of Schedule shows the average power rating of the opponents a team has faced to date.
It’s important to understand the differences in the various ratings before blindly following them in any given sport, thus the further explanation above. With that in mind, I pored through the database of the Strength Ratings I have uploaded to the VSiN database this season and compared them to the finishing lines and actual results of games played. The following is a synopsis of the results and some of the highlights/lowlights.
PRO FOOTBALL 2025 SEASON RESULTS (games through Sunday 11/9)
Power Ratings
Money Lines
So far in the 2025 pro season, my pro football Power Ratings have produced these money line records – ALL GAMES
When PR’s project the home team to win outright: 60-30 SU (66.7%)
When PR’s project the road team to win outright: 31-16 SU (65.9%)
When PR’s project the winner in a neutral field game: 4-2 SU (66.7%)
Combined: 95-48 SU (66.4%)
In DIVISIONAL GAMES: 27-13 SU (67.5%)
In CONFERENCE GAMES: 37-16 SU (69.8%)
In NON-CONFERENCE GAMES: 29-18 SU (61.7%)
Interesting that there is a bit of a “weak spot” when predicting the winners in non-conference action.
In GAMES with Point spreads >3 points: 66-24 SU (73.3%)
In GAMES with Point spreads <=3 points: 29-24 SU (54.7%)
When PR’s Project an UPSET WIN by underdog team: 7-11 SU (38.9%) – although when projecting home underdogs to win outright, the record is 6-5 SU
Point Spreads
So far in the 2025 pro season, my pro football Power Ratings have produced these ATS records – ALL GAMES. Note that not all ATS ties or tie projections are counted.
When PR’s project the home team to win ATS: 45-42 ATS (51.7%)
When PR’s project the road team to win ATS: 26-26 ATS (50%)
When PR’s project the ATS winner in a neutral field game: 4-2 ATS (66.7%)
Combined: 75-70 ATS (51.7%)
Though better than “average,” and a 1.7% theoretical advantage, this result is a bit less than that of college football.
In DIVISIONAL GAMES: 21-18 ATS (53.8%)
In CONFERENCE GAMES: 34-21 ATS (61.8%)
In NON-CONFERENCE GAMES: 21-30 ATS (41.2%)
Again, it’s noteworthy the disparity in these records by type of game. This is something to watch going forward. Note that for the week 10 MNF game, the conference battle showed a Green Bay win by 2.0 points.
In GAMES with Point spreads >3 points: 44-39 SU (53%)
In GAMES with Point spreads <=3 points: 31-31 SU (50.9%)
If you utilize the Weekly Matchup Ratings currently, you would know that there is a GREEN STAR any time there is a Power Rating difference of 3.0 or more off of the actual line. When there has been a 3,0-point or greater difference this season in pro football from to Power Ratings against the closing line, my projected ATS winners have gone 6-8 ATS (42.8%).
Effective Strength Ratings
Point Spreads
So far in the 2025 pro season, my pro football Effective Strength Ratings have produced these ATS records – ALL GAMES. Note that all ATS ties or tie projections are not counted.
When ESR’s project the home team to win ATS: 30-38 ATS (44.1%)
When ESR’s project the road team to win ATS: 29-39 ATS (42.6%)
When ESR’s project the ATS winner in a neutral field game: 3-3 ATS (50%)
Combined: 62-80 ATS (43.7%)
This is not a good record, although I will say that I tend to handicap games from a situational standpoint in the NFL more than I do statistically. That said, I do find overall power ratings and metrics involving momentum more valuable than body of work statistics for the NFL game. Perhaps these numbers can serve better in a FADE capacity, as they do reflect a team’s raw stats, which do have a lot to do with where oddsmakers build their numbers from.
In DIVISIONAL GAMES: 15-24 ATS (38.5%)
In CONFERENCE GAMES: 30-25 ATS (54.5%)
In NON-CONFERENCE GAMES: 15-30 ATS (33.3%)
Again, on the Weekly Matchup Ratings page currently, there is a GREEN STAR any time there is an Effective Strength Rating difference of 3.0 or more off the actual line. When there has been a 3.0-point or greater difference this season in pro football from Effective Strength Ratings against the closing line, my projected ATS winners have gone 11-13 ATS (45.8%). Note that this is a far lesser winning percentage than that of college football, which I find to be a more strength/statistical-based game.
Totals
So far in the 2025 pro season, my pro football Effective Strength Ratings have produced these records on totals – ALL GAMES. Note all FT ties or tie projections are not counted.
When ESR’s projected OVER the total: 36-31 (52.6%)
When ESR’s projected UNDER the total: 32-43 (42.7%)
Combined: 68-74 (47.9%)
This is almost a 5% improvement on the record of point spreads, but still not usable to a savvy bettor, unless it involves fading the projections.
In DIVISIONAL GAMES: 17-20 (45.9%)
In CONFERENCE GAMES: 26-31 (45.6%)
In NON-CONFERENCE GAMES: 23-24 (48.9%)
Again, on the Weekly Matchup Ratings page currently, there is a GREEN STAR any time there is an Effective Strength Rating difference of 3.0 or more off the actual total. When there has been a 3.0-point or greater difference this season in pro football from Effective Strength Ratings against the closing total, my projected totals have gone 10-6 ATS (62.5%). This is our first profitable record using NFL stat models, obtained simply by taking the games with the total projections 3.0 or more points off the actual numbers.
Bettors’ Ratings
Point Spreads
So far in the ’25 pro season, my pro football Bettors’ Ratings have produced these ATS records – ALL GAMES. Note all ATS ties or tie projections are not counted.
When BR’s project the home team to win ATS: 41-34 ATS (54.7%)
When BR’s project the road team to win ATS: 36-29 ATS (55.4%)
When BR’s project the ATS winner in a neutral field game: 5-1 ATS (83.3%)
Combined: 82-64 ATS (56.2%)
This is a very encouraging start to our NFL Bettors’ Ratings numbers and the success does have some foundation to it, as I believe the NFL is a markets-based betting model above all things and the numbers that oddsmakers submit are based significantly upon market perception. Having a rating that quantifies this perception can prove advantageous when there are discrepancies off of lines. We’ll see if the rest of the queries or the numbers on totals produce similar results.
In DIVISION GAMES: 21-17 ATS (55.3%)
In CONFERENCE GAMES: 33-24 ATS (57.9%)
In NON-CONFERENCE GAMES: 29-22 ATS (56.8%)
The above figures are very strong across the board, and there are no strong or weak spots. Something to consider moving forward.
Again, on the Weekly Matchup Ratings page currently, there is a GREEN STAR any time there is a Bettors’ Rating difference of 3.0 or more off of the actual line. When there has been a 3.0-point or greater difference this season in pro football from Bettors’ Ratings against the closing line, my projected ATS winners have gone 12-13 ATS (48%). It is worth noting that these larger discrepancies are not as successful. Speaking from a personal handicapping perspective, when I see lines that are “off” a lot compared to normal market values, that makes me more inclined to go the other way.
Totals
So far in the 2025 pro season, my pro football Bettors’ Ratings have produced these records on totals – ALL GAMES. Note that all FT ties or tie projections are not counted.
When BR’s projected OVER the total: 45-34 (57%)
When BR’s projected UNDER the total: 33-34 (49.3%)
Combined: 78-68 (53.4%)
These numbers for totals on the Bettors’ Ratings are far better than those for the Effective Strength Ratings, by 5.5% in fact. Still, the inconsistency between the projected Overs and Unders leaves me leery about fully trusting them.
In DIVISIONAL GAMES: 20-20 (50%)
In CONFERENCE GAMES: 30-27 (52.6%)
In NON-CONFERENCE GAMES: 28-21 (57.1%)
As usual, on the Weekly Matchup Ratings page currently, there is a GREEN STAR any time there is a Bettors’ Rating difference of 3.0 or more off of the actual total. When there has been a 3.0-point or greater difference this season in pro football from Bettors’ Ratings against the closing total, my projected totals have gone 12-11 (52.2%).
Summary
The strength and stat models tracked for college football demonstrated more reliability. I am not surprised, as again, I believe handicapping the NFL successfully hinges more on momentum metrics, finding successful situational spots, and finding ways to play with or against the markets. It’s never as easy as analyzing team stats and backing the better team. Oddsmakers have already accounted for this in most cases. Hopefully, some of what you have read here can give you an advantage going forward, using the Makinen Strength Ratings in conjunction with other time-proven strategies.
