Best bets for Week 10 of the NFL season
Wes Reynolds is on VSiN Tonight (9 p.m.-12 a.m. ET / 6-9 p.m. PT) and will be posting his weekly college football and NFL best bets for us. He is also one of the hosts of our Long Shots golf betting podcast. He also writes weekly golf previews.
Top NFL Resources:
NFL Odds | NFL Betting Splits | NFL Power Ratings | Week 2 NFL Hub
(odds as of November 10, 11:30 p.m. PT)
Packers at Steelers (-3.5; 38.5)
Somehow and someway, the Pittsburgh Steelers are 5-3 despite being outgained in all eight games by an average of -98 net yards per game! In fact, Pittsburgh’s offense has gone three-and-out on 47% of its possessions.
The Steelers’ defense ranks in the Top 10, but the Steelers, as a whole, have been extremely lucky.
Pittsburgh is 5-0 in one-score games and has had the smaller win probability entering the fourth quarter in four of their five wins. Eventually, regression returns to the mean here with this team. Perhaps regression also returns some positive for Green Bay, who has lost three games by a total of seven points.
While Jaire Alexander is likely to miss for Green Bay, Kenny Pickett and the Steelers offense may be unable to take advantage of that.
Aaron Jones is now in his third week back from a hamstring injury that sidelined him for three games, and that helps out Jordan Love, who had his best completion percentage (76.9%) of the season and 8.8 YPA (his best since Week 1) and broke a five-game streak of throwing an interception.
Bet: Packers +3.5 (Play to +3)
TEASER OF THE WEEK
Cardinals +8/Vikings +9
TOTAL OF THE WEEK
Colts/Patriots UN 43
The Indianapolis Colts technically "scored" 27 points in a two-touchdown victory over Carolina last week, but they only scored 13 points offensively and gained less than 200 yards against a beat-up Carolina defense.
The Patriots have the fifth-best defensive rushing DVOA, so the Colts could continue to struggle to move the ball on the ground.
Meanwhile, the Colts run the most zone coverage in the league (89%), and the way to beat them is to run the ball, which New England ranks about mid-pack in doing.
