NFL best bets for Week 4 from Steve Makinen

September 29, 2023

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NFL Week 4 Best Bets

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Atlanta vs. Jacksonville

This week’s line in the London game between Atlanta and Jacksonville sets a tone for the game as if there is a big difference in the quality of these teams. With the Jaguars playing as 3-point favorites on a neutral field, oddsmakers are trying to tell us that they are that much better. Are they though? To me, it certainly doesn’t seem so thus far.

Head coach Doug Pederson’s team comes off an ugly 20-point loss to Houston and by all rights hasn’t put together an impressive game yet. Historically, they’ve fared horribly against NFC foes, going 7-31 ATS in their last 38 nonconference tilts, including 1-10 ATS in the QB Trevor Lawrence era.

In this specific matchup, Atlanta is on a 5-1 SU and 6-0 ATS run vs. Jacksonville. The Falcons have been pretty sound defensively so far, allowing just 18 PPG, and should be in this one throughout, with a great shot at the upset.

Play Atlanta at +3 and anywhere in the +/- 0.5 point range

Baltimore at Cleveland

Despite the constant barrage of criticism heading QB Deshaun Watson’s way lately, the Browns have gotten off to a strong start, going 2-1 against three fellow AFC playoff hopefuls. They face another one here, a once insurmountable nemesis in Baltimore.

The last five games in this series have been big ones, as Cleveland was finally able to get itself on a competitive level with the Ravens, winning two and seeing the biggest defeat margin of just six points. Now, with the Browns playing phenomenal defense (10 PPG & 163.7 YPG allowed), they get another shot at their hated rivals. They also get it heading into their bye week which is big because teams heading into their bye week when facing a divisional opponent are 49-19 ATS since 2013. Watson is listed as questionable for this one, but I like it either way.

Take Cleveland at -1 and/or any price adjustment if Watson is out

Washington at Philadelphia

I don’t think that anyone would argue that Philadelphia is the better team in this week’s matchup with Washington, but I would question the wisdom of laying more than a TD in a divisional game with a favorite that is not clicking at this point. Especially when you consider the recent history between these teams in the games played in Philly.

In fact, the Commanders are on a 2-2 SU and 2-0-2 ATS run here, including a 32-21 upset win last year as double-digit dogs. Despite what happened last week, I believe Washington is a better team now than they were then. Clearly, the betting public doesn’t share my sentiments, as 80% of money and bettors were on the Eagles as of this writing. That said, in NFL divisional games of 2022, DK majority Handle bettors were absolutely awful, as this majority group was just 36-64 ATS (36%). IMO, Philly is not playing well enough to be undefeated ATS, and this week it catches up.

Take Washington +9, or anything within +/- 1.5 points

Cincinnati at Tennessee

Geez, one win, and all of a sudden, bettors are thinking Cincinnati is back. Let’s be honest, the Bengals don’t look anything like the team that we watched come up just short the last few years of a title. QB Joe Burrow is not himself, and the offensive and defensive lines are getting whipped regularly. They are ranked at or near the bottom of the league in many key rushing stats on both sides of the ball. That’s not a good thing when getting ready for Derrick Henry.

The Titans are off a brutal effort at Cleveland, but that game does set up a decent extreme system play: NFL teams that lost, scored seven points or fewer, and had 10 or fewer first downs in a game have performed admirably as underdogs in the next contest, 16-29 SU but 31-14 ATS (68.9%) over the last decade-plus. I hate assuming good teams are back just because they eke out a win to save their season. I’ll fade Cincy till is shows signs of life, especially with the public backing them heavily this week.

Take Tennessee +2.5 (+2 or +3 work for me as well)

New England at Dallas

Besides what I’ve seen on the field the past few weeks, there are several key trends for this New England-Dallas clash that lead me to believe that the Cowboys are due to bounce back from their humbling defeat last week at Arizona. Let’s face it, oddsmakers made that a very difficult spot for the Cowboys and they succumbed to the pressure. They were also dealing with some tough news from the CB Trevon Diggs injury announcement. Now that they should be grounded again, this game and line sets up more favorably for them.

It is an offensive mismatch essentially, as Dallas can score, very well at home usually, and New England’s offense is struggling. Patriots’ QB Mac Jones is 0-11 ATS as an underdog, while Dallas is 9-1 ATS when coming off a loss in the head coach Mike McCarthy era. Not only all of that, but unlike the other favorites this week, there isn’t nearly as heavy of money in on Dallas. I expect them to get it done here.

Take Dallas -6 and nothing over 7

Kansas City at NY Jets

Everyone loves the Chiefs right now, and everyone is dumping on the Jets. Normally that is all I need to back a heavy underdog. In this case, there are a few other things I like. First, Kansas City is getting at or near 90% of the handle and bet volume at DraftKings. I absolutely love that when it is a massive NFL road favorite.

Second, home teams in this head-to-head series are on a 5-0 ATS run. Third, this number didn’t go nearly as high as I thought it would after the Chiefs’ rout of Chicago combined with another ugly showing by QB Zach Wilson and the Jets offense this past Sunday. And finally, home underdogs have been competitive on Sunday night football, going 15-17 SU and 19-11-2 ATS (63.3%) dating back to 2017. This Jets’ defense has a ton of pride and won’t be embarrassed on SNF. As hard as it seems to stomach, I’m backing New York here.

Take NY Jets +9 (+/- 1 point is fine) and don’t be surprised if it’s MUCH more competitive than that

Seattle at NY Giants

Oddsmakers seemingly can’t make up their mind regarding this Giants-Seahawks game and who should be favored. In my opinion, why would it be Seattle? Just because the Seahawks are 2-1 and the Giants are 1-2? I don’t think we have a real true feeling for where these teams are yet in 2023.

New York has yet to cover a point spread yet is still in reasonable shape to stay in playoff contention with a win here. They will be the beneficiaries of three MNF trends that have thrived lately: First, in non-divisional conference matchups on MNF, hosts are on a 16-8 ATS (66.7%) surge since ’19. Second, teams scoring 17.5 PPG or less at the time have gone 12-4 ATS (75%) in their last 16 tries against teams scoring higher than that. Third, won/lost records have mattered on MNF, as teams with the better record are 15-28-2 ATS (34.9%) in the last 45 MNF games not matching teams with identical records.

Seattle may have a better record, but it isn’t playing like an elite team defensively, ranking among the league’s worst in pass defense specifically. The Seahawks have allowed 316+ passing yards in all three games so far.

Let’s play the Giants as any underdog or pick ’em.

For more system matches and key trends, check out the Week 4 NFL Analytics Report.