NFL best bets for Week 6 from Wes Reynolds

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Wes Reynolds
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Best bets for Week 6 of the NFL season

Wes Reynolds is on VSiN Tonight (9 p.m.-12 a.m. ET / 6-9 p.m. PT) and will be posting his weekly college football and NFL best bets for us. He is also one of the hosts of our Long Shots golf betting podcast. He also writes weekly golf previews 

 

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(odds as of October 13, 11:30 p.m. PT)

Patriots at Raiders (-3; 41)

The Patriots have been outscored by a combined score of 72-3 over the last two weeks. Much of the chatter this week around this game has been regarding whether this is the end of the line for Bill Belichick in New England, and it probably should be either leading the hoodie into retirement or a start somewhere else to finish his coaching career. However, he has probably heard this all week as well, and what better time to stop the bleeding than against one of his former pupils?

Plus, the Patriots lost in Las Vegas last year in one of the more remarkable finishes in recent memory as the Raiders returned a fumble for a touchdown as time expired to win 30-24.

When a team is shut out, it tends to be the ultimate buy-low spot. In fact, underdogs off a shutout loss are 44-26 ATS since 2005. Furthermore, road underdogs off a loss of 20 or more points are 50-26 ATS over the last five years.

As poor as the New England offense has been, the Raiders actually rank worse (31st in DVOA vs. 28th).

The Raiders got the cover last week as small home favorites against Green Bay last Monday night, but do we really trust it to happen twice in a row with Josh McDaniels’ decision-making and game-management skills or lack thereof?

Bet: Patriots +3

Panthers at Dolphins (-14; 47.5)

The Carolina Panthers are the NFL’s last winless team at 0-5 and are also 0-4-1 ATS on the season. Surely, they will not cover against a Miami Dolphins team with an offense that has produced the most yards since the 2000 Rams "Greatest Show on Turf" with four Hall of Famers and has even surpassed that unit, right?

Miami dominated the Giants last week in a 31-16 victory and still had to hold off a late backdoor against backup Tyrod Taylor, who was in for an injured Daniel Jones.

Furthermore, RB De’Von Achane, who is averaging 11.2 yards per touch, is out for the next four weeks. While the cupboard is hardly bare without him, Achane is a huge loss.

There is not much encouraging to say about Carolina other than Bryce Young probably looked the best he has looked in his rookie campaign during last week’s second half at Detroit. Granted, the game was way out of reach, but you have to start somewhere.

This is more temporarily selling Miami at the top of the market, especially with an SNF showdown at likely still unbeaten Philadelphia on deck.

Bet: Panthers +14 (to +13)

 

TEASER OF THE WEEK

Texans +8/Commanders +8.5

 

TOTAL OF THE WEEK

Giants/Bills UN 44.5

 

 

 

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