NFL Week 1 Best Bets, Predictions and Picks from Matt Youmans:
Here are my NFL Week 1 best bets.
Baltimore (-1) at Buffalo
If the Super Bowl loser hangover hits the Chiefs, who are leaving Brazil with a bad headache before the first Sunday of the NFL season, the window of opportunity will be wide open in the AFC. So maybe it’s finally Josh Allen’s time. Or is it Lamar Jackson’s time?
The Bills and Ravens, a pair of title contenders frustrated by an inability to get over the hump in the postseason, are set to meet in a Sunday night showdown in Buffalo. The winner will emerge as the favorite in the AFC, which Kansas City has won five of the past six years. But the Chiefs are 0-1 and suddenly losing their swagger.
Allen and the Bills seem ready to step up, but the same is true of Jackson and the Ravens. When the teams clashed in the divisional round of the playoffs in January, Baltimore made one too many blunders and allowed Buffalo to advance with a 27-25 win.
The boxscore from the playoff game eight months ago was tilted to the Ravens, who had a 416-273 advantage in total yards yet unraveled with three turnovers. Baltimore had the better defense that day and that has not changed. The betting line is basically the same, too.
Buffalo is a league-best 18-2 at home, including the playoffs, since 2023. But the Ravens are again slight road favorites against the Bills, a clear sign that Baltimore has more believers in the betting market. I’m one of those believers.
The Ravens have few weaknesses and many strengths. If Jimmy “The Greek” Snyder were checking boxes on his CBS chalkboard — with Brent Musburger looking on in “The NFL Today” studio — he likely would give Baltimore checkmarks for edges in coaching with John Harbaugh, the running attack with Derrick Henry and for the superior defense. Buffalo gets a check for intangibles, including the home field, and the quarterback position is a tossup.
As of today, I power rate the Ravens as the league’s top team. Baltimore’s defense should be the difference in this heavyweight fight.
NFL Week 1 Best Bet: Baltimore Ravens -1
New York Giants at Washington (-6)
It’s typically a good idea to run with dogs in early-season divisional games, and the Cowboys (+8) gave a great effort while cashing for me Thursday in their 24-20 loss at Philadelphia. The Giants are also capable of pulling an upset when the other two NFC East teams meet in Washington. New York’s defensive front has the talent to contain Commanders quarterback Jayden Daniels. In last year’s meetings, Washington squeaked out wins by scores of 21-18 and 27-22. The Giants have definitely improved their roster from a year ago and are being underrated by most skeptics. Russell Wilson is a 36-year-old quarterback who has been aging fast and does not move the needle as he once did, but he’s got something left. He’s also got a few playmakers around him and a better line in front of him.
NFL Week 1 Best Bet: New York Giants +6
Cincinnati (-5.5) at Cleveland
It has been repeated countless times how bad the Bengals have been in early September under coach Zac Taylor — 1-11 straight up in the first two weeks of the season. Taylor played quarterback Joe Burrow and his stars more in the preseason to try to avoid another slow start. The offense will be fine, but Cincinnati’s defense is its biggest problem. Here’s the big question for Cleveland: Is 40-year-old Joe Flacco able to trade shots with Burrow? The Browns have the motivation and talent to hang with the Bengals. These divisional games mean more, especially to teams like the Browns and Giants who have heard how hopeless they are all offseason. Week 1 divisional home dogs are 23-7 ATS since 2010, a trend that’s relevant because there are reasons behind it. The Browns and three other teams (Falcons, Seahawks and Bears) fit the description this week.
NFL Week 1 Best Bet: Cleveland Browns +5.5
San Francisco (-1.5) at Seattle
Don’t sleep on Seattle, which could be a surprise contender in the NFC West. Mike Macdonald is a defensive wizard and rising star as a coach. The Seahawks are built to run the ball and play shutdown defense. Every optimistic prediction for San Francisco’s season highlights a soft schedule as a reason the team will overachieve. This is not a soft opener. The 49ers were hit hard by the Super Bowl loser hangover and dipped to 6-11 last season when a diminished defense and injuries led to the decline. The offense is not quite as explosive anymore, and now there are more health concerns with running back Christian McCaffrey.
NFL Week 1 Best Bet: Seattle Seahawks +1.5
Detroit at Green Bay (-2)
I used the Falcons and Saints as home dogs on some contest cards this week. The Packers are the only short home favorite that made my list. If the good version of quarterback Jordan Love shows up, Green Bay will be hard to handle. The Packers have been put together to win now, which is why they traded with Dallas for edge rusher Micah Parsons, who might not play because of a bad back and will be limited if he does play. Parsons is no factor in my handicap of this game. The Lions will take a step back this season, so I’m starting their fade here at Lambeau Field. The last time Jared Goff took the field, he threw three interceptions in a 45-31 playoff loss to the Commanders. Goff will miss offensive coordinator Ben Johnson, who will be coaching in Chicago on Monday night.
NFL Week 1 Best Bet: Green Bay Packers -2
For more NFL Week 1 best bets, visit the NFL Week 1 betting hub, exclusively on VSiN.
