NFL Betting Guide – 2024 NFL Best Bets:

Our VSiN experts provide their NFL best bets for the upcoming season.

Matt Youmans

Philadelphia Eagles to Win Super Bowl (14-1)
Two years ago, Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts emerged as an MVP candidate by accounting for 35 total touchdowns while posting a 14-1 record as a starter. He led Philadelphia to a 24-14 lead at halftime of Super Bowl LVII. It was not a fluke. Hurts is the real deal. Of course, the Eagles lost the title game to the Chiefs, and last season resulted in a hangover for Hurts and a team that fell apart down the stretch. I’m expecting 2024 to look a lot like 2022 for Philadelphia, which had a productive offseason by adding running back Saquon Barkley, improving the defensive secondary and strengthening the coaching staff with new coordinators Vic Fangio (defense) and Kellen Moore (offense). On May 1, I bet the Eagles at +135 to win the NFC East, but that price is long gone. I believe in this team enough to bet on Philadelphia to get back to the Super Bowl and close the deal this time.

 

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Cincinnati Bengals to Win AFC North (+160)
A last-place schedule will help the Bengals climb the ladder from worst to first in the division. It’s not as if Cincinnati, which finished 9-8 last season, has a long way to go. While the AFC North is arguably the NFL’s toughest division, the Browns and Steelers have serious concerns at the quarterback position. The Bengals’ only concern with quarterback Joe Burrow is his ability to stay healthy. Burrow appears to be fully recovered from a season-ending wrist injury. I expect the Ravens to take a step back in the regular season, and this could play out similar to 2022, when Cincinnati finished 12-4 and won the division by 2.5 games over Baltimore.

San Francisco 49ers Under 11.5 Wins (-130)
When there is drama in training camp, it’s typically a bad sign for what’s to come, and the 49ers have been unable to solve the contract hold-in by leading receiver Brandon Aiyuk. If Aiyuk is not on the field, the offense is likely to sputter. The brief action that quarterback Brock Purdy got in the preseason was unimpressive, and Purdy is operating behind a line that rates as mediocre. Almost seven months after the 49ers blew a Super Bowl they should have won, the hangover still lingers. It’s going to be difficult to replicate last year’s 12-5 finish. San Francisco will face a tougher schedule than it did last season, and the rest of the NFC West is no joke with the Rams, Seahawks and Cardinals seemingly on the rise.

Dallas Cowboys Under 10.5 Wins (-180)
While playoff wins have been hard to come by for the Cowboys, regular-season success has been routine. Dallas won 12 games in each of coach Mike McCarthy’s past three seasons. McCarthy’s luck is about to run out. The Cowboys are weaker on the offensive line and quarterback Dak Prescott has fewer playmakers to work with this season. Aside from linebacker Micah Parsons, there is nothing elite about the Dallas defense. It’s a top-heavy roster with Parsons, Prescott and receiver CeeDee Lamb all chasing top-of-the-market contracts. The Eagles will return to superiority in the NFC East, and the Cowboys could slip to third in the division if the Commanders turn into a surprise team as many expect. This finally should be the end for McCarthy.

Denver Broncos Over 5.5 Wins (-130)
After watching all of the preseason games and reviewing each team, I have changed my opinion a little on a few teams. The Broncos will be better than the betting market suggests. Denver’s two-deep roster is not highlighted by stars, but it’s more talented than initially thought. I’m not buying all the hype on rookie quarterback Bo Nix, who was impressive against backups in two preseason games, but he doesn’t look overwhelmed after starting 61 college games at Auburn and Oregon. Sean Payton, who led the Broncos to a 7-4 record in their final 11 games last season, is a coach who deserves the benefit of the doubt. It’s not easy to find at least six wins on Denver’s difficult schedule, but Payton will probably overachieve with an underrated team.

New York Giants to Make Playoffs (No -470)
It would be surprising if the Giants don’t finish last in the division and I’ll be absolutely stunned if they reach the playoffs. The media will make quarterback Daniel Jones the fall guy, but the truth is the organization has numerous problems and Jones has been set up to fail. New York (6-11 last season) probably has a seven-win ceiling and a floor of rock bottom. The Patriots and Panthers are the only teams in the league that appear to be obviously worse than the Giants, so lay it and wait five months to cash what should be a no-sweat bet.

New England Patriots to Make Playoffs (No -1,000)
Even with Bill Belichick calling the shots, New England finished with only four wins last season. Now, with a coaching downgrade to Jerod Mayo and a quarterback situation that’s a chaotic mess, the Patriots must deal with a tougher schedule. How is this team getting to five or six wins? I normally would not suggest a play with this price tag, but the Circa Sports line is a bargain compared to what DraftKings is offering on this (-1,800) and the bet is 99% to win.

Wes Reynolds

Indianapolis Colts Under 8.5 Wins (-115) 
Colts General Manager Chris Ballard elected to basically run it back with his roster from last season being that they were technically one play away from winning the AFC South and making the playoffs. However, they were fortunate to be in that position considering they went 6-2 in one-score games before that finale against Houston. 

From what little we saw of Anthony Richardson in the preseason, he is still a work in progress. The electrifying plays are there, as is the size and freakish athleticism. Nevertheless, he misses easy throws that the average NFL starter can routinely make. 

Even with Richardson’s continued development, the offense should still be above NFL average assuming Jonathan Taylor can stay healthy and the Colts stay committed to running the ball. 

Defensively, the Colts ranked 28th in points allowed and defensive coordinator Gus Bradley’s scheme is entirely too predictable. This team will find itself in quite a few shootouts where whomever is fortunate enough to have the ball last will win. Will the Colts have the same close game luck as last year? 

Indianapolis also has to play three teams off bye weeks and two other teams with extra prep time off playing in Thursday night games. In all, the Colts face a -17 days net rest edge differential, which is the third-largest mark in the league this season. 

Dallas Cowboys Under 10.5 Wins (-180)
The Cowboys have won 12 games in three consecutive seasons, but yet they have more questions than answers this season. Dak Prescott is in a contract year, as is CeeDee Lamb, who has yet to report to camp. The Cowboys are also starting two rookies on the offensive line and have little to no depth at the tackle positions. After a season in New England, Ezekiel Elliott is back at starting running back. At this point in his career, ‘Zeke’ is a goal-line back. 

The defense, under Dan Quinn (now the head coach in Washington), was able to play more aggressively because they could outscore teams. Mike Zimmer will employ more man coverage and they have the corners to play that scheme. However, the Dallas defense is +34 in turnover margin, so at least some regression should be coming. 

With all the question marks on the roster, there is a potential for a sluggish start and the Cowboys always have the potential to be a bit of a national media circus. Philadelphia is also substantially improved and should live up to the hype that they failed to live up to last season. 

Tampa Bay Buccaneers to Finish Last in NFC South (5-1)
Last season, the Bucs sat at 4-7 heading into December. Then, they won five of six games to earn the NFC South division title and won a Wild Card Round playoff game against a DOA Eagles team before bowing out in Detroit.  Tampa had a great deal of fortune last year with injuries and turnovers, both of which should regress to the mean this season.

Baker Mayfield was on his fourth team in two years to start last season but finally found a home in Tampa as he posted career highs in total completions, completion percentage, passing yards, and touchdown passes. He was rewarded with a three-year contract extension. However, he now has to do it without Dave Canales as his offensive coordinator has now moved on to be Carolina’s head coach. While Mayfield still has offensive weapons with Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, he is also behind a young offensive line, and has a new offensive coordinator. 

Atlanta has now emerged as the clear favorite in the South, Carolina should be improved, and New Orleans still has arguably the best defense in the division. Meanwhile, Tampa does have to play a first-place schedule including games at Detroit, vs. Baltimore, at Kansas City, vs. San Francisco, and at Dallas. 

It does not take much to go worst to first or first to worst in this division. 

Pauly Howard

New England Patriots Alt Under 5.5 Wins (-190)
This is the worst team in the league by a wide margin. During Bet Bash, Under 3.5 at +300 odds was hit heavy by many in attendance, and I agree with it. You can’t ask this team to get to six wins with horrible skill position players and a rookie quarterback that isn’t ready. The Patriots just traded Judon, and the team’s schedule is brutal. Also, AFC East quarterbacks are elite and the Pats face Burrow, Purdy, Stroud, Williams, Lawrence, Richards, Herbert and Murray. I love this Under. 

Mitch Moss

Week 3: Detroit Lions vs. Arizona Cardinals Over 50
I’m high on the Lions this year. I bet them to win the NFC at +600 and the Super Bowl at 12-1 earlier in the summer. Their offense is loaded across the board. While the defense should be improved this year — especially the secondary — it could take some time before we see it. Arizona had one of the best running games in football last year once Kyler Murray returned. Trey McBride closed the season as one of the best tight ends in the league, and Marvin Harrison Jr., should be an electric and prolific weapon as a rookie. So, the Cardinals offense is solid. On the other hand, Arizona’s defense is putrid on paper. All three units rank at, or near, the bottom of the league per various people who do such rankings. Also, 51 is a key number with totals, and I expect the game to close higher than what is currently available at DK. Both teams could be in the 30s.

Washington Commanders Over 6.5 Wins (-120)
I’m a believer in rookie QB Jayden Daniels. I bet him to win OROY (+800). He’ll enter the league playing under a revamped coaching staff in Washington DC. People still mock Dan Quinn after his Atlanta Falcons blew a 28-3 lead in the Super Bowl to the Patriots, but his overall resume spanning a decade is no laughing matter. From being the defensive coordinator with the “Legion of Boom” in Seattle, to running a Dallas defense that produced 26 turnovers in 2023, 33 in 2022 (1st in the league), and 34 in 2021 (also 1st in the league), Quinn will take the reins of a team that had the worst turnover differential in the NFL last year. Going back to 2011, 14 teams led the league in turnover margin or were tied for the league lead. Eleven improved in that category the following year. The Commanders play the Giants twice, Arizona, Cleveland, Carolina, Chicago, Pittsburgh, Tennessee, New Orleans, among others. Getting to seven wins is worth a bet to me. 

New York Jets to Win Super Bowl (30/1)
New York Jets to Win AFC (15/1)
Both numbers are available at the Westgate as of this post. I wasn’t expecting to add any conference or Super Bowl futures this late in the season, but both of these numbers were too good to pass up. I don’t have super high expectations for Aaron Rodgers, but this is a playoff team if he stays healthy and plays average-to-above-average football. The offensive line has a chance to be much improved, and I love their weapons. The defense is loaded at every single level. That unit will carry the team to wins if/when the offense is struggling. It’ll travel in January, and throw the fear of god into their opponents. 

​​Stormy Buonantony

Denver Broncos Alternate Over 6.5 Wins (+160)
There has been a lot of love for Bo Nix in the Offensive Rookie of the Year market, shifting from 18/1 in our initial NFL betting guide to 11/1 for the refresh. That said, none of that love has translated to much of an adjustment on the Broncos season win total Over 5.5. While I agree this roster doesn’t exactly scream “world beater” I think they can and should be able to win 6-7 games and the plus-money option on the alternate Over 6.5 wins is calling my name. Denver got off to a 1-5 start to last season, got embarrassed defensively against Miami 70-20, Russ struggled to cook Top Ramen and the Broncos still found a way to claw out eight wins in Sean Payton’s first season.

As my colleague Michael Lombardi pointed out during our show recently, Denver was 0-6 last season when they turned the ball over 2+ times, but were 8-3 in games they had one or no turnovers. That’s a big part of the Broncos’ story. So with Payton getting his guy in Nix, who was the most efficient QB in college football history last season (also had 51 total TDs and three INTs), the offense should operate at a higher clip. Yes I know Denver plays in a division with the 2X defending Super Bowl champion in it and faces the AFC North this season, But there are a lot of winnable games on that schedule as well.

Lowest Scoring Team: New England Patriots +320
Lowest Scoring Team: New York Giants 10/1
I can see the Patriots and Giants in a competition this season for the #1 overall pick in next year’s draft. And while the prices are the same in the “fewest wins” market as they are for “lowest scoring team,” I’m taking wins/losses out of the equation and directly fading these offenses. Last year, both of these teams were bottom three in the NFL for points, points per game, offensive EPA and yards per play, with the Pats tying the Panthers as the league’s worst offensive unit.

Let’s start in New England, where things could get worse before they get better, even with a new OC and QB. Jacoby Brissett was so bad this training camp & preseason that head coach Jerod Mayo started openly saying rookie Drake Maye had potential to win the starting job despite comments all offseason about the importance of not rushing his development plan. That’s telling. They’re also largely devoid of talent at the skill positions and have been experimenting with several OL combinations throughout camp. It doesn’t make matters better for the Pats, they’ll also be facing one of the league’s most difficult schedules top to bottom.

While New England is a favorite in this market for a reason, I also like the potential value on the NYG at 10/1. If one of these bets wins, you’re taking home a profit overall. As I stated in the last version of the guide, I have zero faith in Daniel Jones. The Giants literally were more productive scoring with Tyrod Taylor and Tommy DeVito than Jones prior to his injury last year and not even stud rookie WR Malik Nabers will turn that pumpkin into a carriage. After 10 years of trying to improve the offensive line, there’s nothing firm that tells me this is the year the attempted improvements will take hold. Oh, and their top scoring threat, Saquon Barkley, is now playing for a division rival.

Kelley Bydlon

Seattle Seahawks +200 to Make Playoffs
Seattle Seahawks +350 to Make Playoffs as a Wildcard Seed 
I’m buying on upside with the Seahawks this season in the weaker NFC. I expect Mike Macdonald to have a major impact on this team immediately, and in particular on defense. I bet him 20-1 to win Coach of the Year and think it’s still a good bet at current numbers around 12-1. Yes, their travel/schedule and offensive line is a concern to me, but I think if the line can play close to league average, this could be an elite offense this season. They were a top-10 offense in early down efficiency a season ago, and a change at head coach could help on third and fourth down. I also love the addition of OC Ryan Grubb, who will likely look to have three WRs on the field often like he did at Washington. With DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett and Jaxon Smith-Njigba posing major threats through the air, it should open some running lanes for Kenneth Walker III as well. I think there is a chance they threaten the 49ers for the division, but it’s more likely they end up as a wildcard seed. 

New England Patriots Most Regular Season Losses +400
New England Patriots Last Winless Team +600
Have you heard anybody else say the Patriots are going to be bad this season? Yeahhhhh, you’ve heard a lot of people say it, and I think they’re all right. This defense might still be pretty good, even with the loss of Matthew Judon to ATL, but man it is hard to find much to get excited about at all on the offensive side of the ball. Worst record, last winless and Under win total are all good bets on the Pats this season.

Anthony Richardson MVP 40-1
Here’s a fun longshot bet for the season and the only bet I’m interested in making with the Colts. I saw enough out of Richardson in his brief playing time last season, to believe he has a VERY high ceiling. And if he plays to that level this season, the Colts could easily find themselves in the AFC playoff picture. But if he doesn’t, I don’t trust the rest of this team to be good enough, consistently, for me to buy in on a division price, or Over their win total. I’ll aim high because if we are talking about an 11+ win Colts team with a healthy Richardson, it’s hard for me to imagine him not being a part of the MVP conversation. 

Gill Alexander

Pittsburgh Steelers Alt Season Win Total Under 8 Wins +110
Pittsburgh Steelers Alt Season Win Total Under 7.5 wins +155

Hold on a sec, I’m being told that Mike Tomlin has never had a losing season as a head coach in the NFL. Well that seems like something that someone should really publicize. Nonetheless, this is the year that streak ends! How many reasons can I give you to support this position? 

The Schedule: The Steelers close the season with a gauntlet of eight  games: vBAL, @CLE, @CIN, vCLE, @PHI, @BAL, vKC, vCIN.  I’m not sure that you can come up with a more difficult flurry of games if you were given a clean palate and the task to come up with one. That near half-season stretch doesn’t include earlier games: @ATL, @IND, vDAL, and vNYJ. Good luck.

2023 record in games decided by seven or fewer points: 9-2: Pittsburgh’s 10-7 record last year was a mirage to begin with. Even if you believe that 9-2 SU in one-score games is the product of some Tomlin magic, you have to concede it’s much more the product of simply being on the right side of season-long variance. Okay, you don’t have to concede this. I’m just telling you that you’re smarter if you do. The performance in this subset is unsustainable and likely to regress to mean in 2024.

Opponent’s QBs: Last year the Steelers faced Dorian Thompson-Robinson, Will Levis, Gardner Minshew, Bailey Zappe, and Tyler Huntley, not to mention Jake Browning twice (instead of Joe Burrow). They went 4-3 in those games. Seven games against backups. SEVEN. That’s not happening again.

Your QBs: The Steelers enter the season under center with some combination of the corpse of Russell Wilson and Justin Fields, who, when last seen in preseason, was busy not seeing a wide-open receiver downfield for a sure TD. In other words, vintage Fields. This situation is what I like to call suboptimal.

I could go on with things like unsustainable red zone performance on defense last year, the hallmark of my Alt Season Win Total Under bet that cashed on the Giants, written up in this space last year, but I don’t want to look any more stupid on the off chance that Tomlin has a VSiN subscription, reads this, gets that leader amongst men expression on his face that can’t be quantified and rallies the troops to extend his insane streak.

Seriously though, that’s not gonna happen. Because 17 years in a row without a losing season is one thing, but 18 in a row is just ridiculous.

Dustin Swedelson

Last Winless Team: New England Patriots (+475)
Let’s not overthink this. This team actually got worse coming off a four-win 2023 campaign. They’re the underdogs in every game in 2024. The spread isn’t less than a field goal until Week 17. Jacoby Brissett hasn’t won a road game since Week 1 of 2022 and New England starts with three of their first four at the Bengals, at the Jets and at the 49ers. Week 2 hosting Seattle could throw a wrinkle into this plan, but if the Seahawks take care of business, and they should, the next spot where they could potentially win is Week 9 at Tennessee. By then, they should already be the last winless team. Last season’s last winless team, Carolina, picked up their first victory in Week 8. 

Josh Allen Most Interceptions (10/1)
There is more pressure on Josh Allen’s arm to make plays than ever before. The Bills have removed his go-to reliable weapons and have left him with Curtis Samuel, Khalil Shakir and rookie Keon Coleman at wide receiver. That’s a significant downgrade on the outside for a QB who still turned the ball over through the air regularly even when he had Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis. Allen has the most interceptions in the NFL over the last five seasons (66). He finished second in INTs the last two years (three-way tie in 2022), averaging 16 INTs per season over the last three combined. Because he will be asked to do even more this year, more turnovers feels inevitable.

New York Jets to Win Super Bowl (20/1)
This feels like one of those bets where we will know very quickly if it has a chance or not. No bet comes without risk, and I understand those who see all of the warts that make up the 2024 New York Jets and want to back away, but 20/1 doesn’t match the potential of this roster. They have longer odds than several teams that have just as many issues as they do. Give me the upside that Aaron Rodgers can be 75% of what he used to be, that the additions and depth on the offensive line keep him healthy and that defense continues to perform as an elite unit.

Jacksonville Jaguars to Win AFC South (+300)
The overreaction on the Jaguars has gone too far. Yes, they absolutely crumbled down the stretch last year, losing five of their last six, but they still almost won the AFC South in Week 18 and then addressed a lot of needs this offseason. Center Mitch Morse and DT Arik Armstead bring leadership and track records of winning and improving their line-of-scrimmage play. Brian Thomas Jr. and Gabe Davis should provide big-play potential through the air. And they improved their secondary by adding Darnell Savage and Ronald Darby. I like backing a team that has done this before, has something to prove and wants to wash away the taste of last year from their mouths at a big number. 

Steve Makinen

Indianapolis Colts Under 8.5 Wins
There will be a few teams across the league this year in which a second-year quarterback and coach team up to try and build upon successful rookie campaigns. Often this brings about the end of the “honeymoon,” as things get a bit more real as opponents know more about the coaching style and system. The team that I figure to be most negatively affected in that situation this year is Indianapolis, who comes back with head coach Shane Steichen and QB Anthony Richardson to build upon what was a noteworthy 9-8 season.

The Colts were one of my winning wagers last year, as they went Over a rather low season win total. I liked what Steichen brought to the table and figured that QB Gardner Minshew would see the bulk of the action in Richardson’s rookie year. That, of course, happened, but only because the rookie suffered a season-ending injury in the season’s fifth game. They would go on to lose their next three to drop to 3-5, and at the time, I was just about ready to tear up my wager ticket. However, Minshew steadied the ship and opened up the passing game, and the defense improved in the season’s second half.

The relief QB is now gone, and Steichen faces the pressure that all rookie coaches do in their second seasons. Indy also won six of its nine games by eight points or fewer and 35 of the last 47 teams that did so dropped, by an average of 3.1 wins per season. I don’t see this as a playoff team this season, as they are at best the #3 team in the AFC South, and also with Richardson likely to struggle after his injury and not gaining much experience last year. Let’s go Under with the Colts as they struggle to a 7-10 type of season.

New England Patriots Over 4.5 Wins
One of the strangest changeover systems I have come across in studying NFL teams from one season to the next reads as follows: Teams that won five or fewer games, none by double-digit margins, have shown significant improvement in the follow-up campaign. In fact, since 1993, there have been 52 such teams, and 50 of them improved the next season, by an average of 3.9 wins per season, including one by as many as 10 games. Why is it strange? Well, it basically says that the team was so bad that it basically can only go up from here. New England is one of the teams affected by this angle in 2024, as is the team I’m next to unveil, Washington.

For the Patriots, the room for quick improvement is immense. They lost eight games by single-possession score margins while only scoring 13.9 PPG. The offense can best be described as dysfunctional with QB Mac Jones under center. With rookie QB Drake Maye still battling Jacoby Brissett for the starting spot, it is an upgrade regardless of who wins. The other thing that figures to give this franchise an immediate boost is the changing of head coaches. While it may seem crazy to think that letting go of the league’s most successful coach ever in Bill Belichick, the changeover to rookie head coach Jerrod Mayo should give this team a breath of fresh air after things had clearly gone sour following the departure of QB Tom Brady a few years ago. If that weren’t enough, this team had terrible turnover luck last season. With a pretty solid defense ready to go and an offense that couldn’t be nearly as bad, wipe the slate completely clean for New England in 2024.

NFL Week 1: LAS VEGAS RAIDERS (+3.5) vs. LA Chargers
Admittedly, I believe that the Chargers will be a better team with head coach Jim Harbaugh in 2024, so much to the point that I made their season win total a best bet in our initial betting guide. However, I have two separate systems that make them a play against in Week 1 versus the Raiders. First, divisional road underdogs of 6.5 points or less are on a 17-13 SU and 21-8-1 ATS (72.4%) run since ’2013. Second, Week 1 favorites playing in a revenge spot from a loss the prior season are just 17-24 SU and 15-26 ATS (36.6%) over the last 12 seasons.

The last time these teams met back in December, the Raiders hung 63 points on the Chargers. Ironically, it was in the second half of a season in which the LA defense was otherwise quite strong. The magnitude of that loss had to have a lot to do with the Chargers moving on from Brandon Staley and bringing in Harbaugh. Fans of the franchise are excited about the change, but they will barely recognize a number of players who have been brought in to replace aging stars. The schemes will also be very different as Harbaugh figures to rely more on a run-based attack rather than putting everything on QB Justin Herbert.

The Raiders played some pretty inspired football down the stretch for interim head coach Antonio Pierce, and as such, he was named the permanent choice to lead this team into ’24. He turns to QB Gardner Minshew to lead the offense, after Minshew, who has had an up-and-down (mostly up) career, nearly led the Colts to the playoffs a year ago. This is a tough spot for a favorite to be in. While it can be argued that revenge is a good motivator, there is enhanced pressure of being placed as a favorite over a team that you lost to last time out. Let’s go with the Raiders in a down-to-the-wire contest.

Matt Brown

Keon Coleman Over 625.5 Receiving Yards (-112) 
As of this writing, Keon Coleman ran a route on 100% of the first-team dropbacks during the first two preseason games. Does Coleman have some flaws? Sure. But he’s going to be on the field a ton with Josh Allen on a team without a true #1 wideout with the departure of Stefon Diggs. Sixty-three different players surpassed this yardage total in 2023, with several players getting there while only having 75-80 targets. Most projection systems have him well clear of the 625 number with conservative target projections close to 100. Jaxon Smith-Njigba cleared the 625-yardage mark last season as a rookie despite being the clear No. 3 option in the passing game. Coleman might be the #2 to Dalton Kincaid, but there will be plenty of targets and yards to go around for Allen, who has thrown for at least 4,200 yards in each of the last four seasons. 

Patriots Last Winless Team (+500), Worst Regular Season Record (+350)
My affinity for fading the 2024 Patriots has no bounds. This is the least talented team in the NFL by a decent margin. They’ve got a new head coach. They will eventually be breaking in a rookie quarterback. The offensive tackles graded out 55th and 79th (out of 81 qualifiers) by PFF last season. The defensive line is a mess. They lack a true #1 wideout. The other three teams in the division are all betting favorites to make the playoffs. The list goes on and on. 

Then there’s the schedule. They’re currently underdogs in all 17 games, with only one game listed as closer than a 3-point spread. There’s only one winnable game in the first eight (Week 2 at home against the Seahawks), and if they can’t steal that one, they’re staring down the barrel of 0-8 before heading to the next winnable game on their schedule. Week 9 on the road against the Titans could be a win, but what if Will Levis is good? Sure, there are second-half games against the Bears, Colts, Cardinals, and Chargers, but player for player, all of those squads are better. I don’t think we’re talking 0-17 or anything as the defense does possess some talent and will keep some games close enough to squeak out. But anything exceeding four wins seems highly unlikely without some wackiness occurring.  

Mike Somich

Keon Coleman Over 4.5 TDs/Dalton Kincaid Over 750.5 Receiving Yards
I threw both of these together because the handicap is very similar. Where there is chaos, there is opportunity, and, oh boy, is there ever chaos in the Buffalo pass-catchers room. With Diggs and Davis leaving, 241 targets, 15 touchdowns and over 1,800 of the 4,300 passing yards walked. The question is who fills the void.

From a touchdown perspective, I love Keon Coleman, he’s a big body wide receiver with a massive catch radius. He plays well off script and fits Josh Allen’s redzone style to a tee. He should get plenty of looks near paydirt and for the Bills to be the Bills, he needs to cash in.

Yardage wise, Kincaid jumps out. Last year, in 91 targets, he recorded 675 yards. He comes into the season as the most reliable and trusted target for Allen. If he lands an additional 30 of the 241 targets that need to be spread out, he should eclipse the 900-yard mark.

Los Angeles Chargers Under 8.5 Wins
Let’s buck the trend on this one. Yes, Harbaugh is a massive coaching upgrade. Yes, the schedule is not hard. I totally understand the case for the Over, but let’s just look at this roster. It’s bad. Like bottom-five NFL bad outside of the QB position. 

The backfield is a recycled group of injured Ravens, the pass-catching group features *checks notes* nobody and the defense is a year older with their star pass rusher already banged up. Add that to the fact that the Broncos and Raiders are better than last year and this is an easy button to click while going against the grain.

Exact Super Bowl Result: Kansas City Chiefs Beat Lions, 40-1 
Let’s have a little fun with a sprinkle of a longshot result. The Chiefs are better than last year. Let that sink in. By year-end, they will be a top-five offense once again with better tackle play and a wide receiving core that complements each other. They could also run the last 11 games on their schedule and end up with the top seed in the AFC.

In the NFC, I’ve got the Lions rated as the second-best team, but I like them more than the 49ers to make the Super Bowl. Everyone is back on the offensive side of the ball, and it is not illogical to expect year-two leaps from Gibbs and LaPorta, as well as St. Brown, to continue to improve. Defensively, they addressed the secondary, which should improve as the season runs its course. 

With both live for the one seed in their conferences, let’s swing away at 40-1!

Ben Wilson

Week 2: Seattle Seahawks -2.5 at New England Patriots
Part of the reason why I advocated for Mike Macdonald as a COY bet in the original NFL guide was because of the Charmin soft schedule Seattle gets out of the gate. It’s always risky to make assumptions in the NFL, but I’d be stunned if Seattle didn’t take care of business Week 1 at home against Denver and rookie QB Bo Nix in his debut. Cincinnati is likely to be the top survivor selection in Week 1 as the largest favorite on the board at home against New England. Assuming both those results hold, the Week 2 line in Foxborough has a great chance of crossing through the key number of 3 and rising to 3.5 or 4. It’s an outstanding matchup for Seattle with how Macdonald frequently used simulated pressures and disguises to wreak havoc on young, inexperienced opposing offenses in his time with Baltimore. Young and inexperienced is a kind way to describe the anemic New England offense heading into 2024, and it’s why putting Seattle in pocket before Week 1 gets underway is a smart way to start your Week 2 portfolio.

Tyler Shoemaker

Week 1: Cincinnati Bengals/New England Patriots Under 43
Between the Patriots being almost last in the NFL in points per game and points per play last year and the fact they didn’t really improve the offense this offseason, I’m not sure they’re going to really improve on last year’s average of 36.8 combined points per game. Also in consideration here is the Ja’Marr Chase contract situation for the Bengals, because as Chad Ochocinco indicated, “Ja’Marr won’t touch the field” until his contract is resolved. Even if Chase is happy and in the lineup, my T Shoe Index only projects 39.5 points in this game, so I love getting above key numbers of 41 and 42 here.

Joe Ceraulo

Seattle Seahawks Over 7.5 Wins (-140)
Seattle Seahawks to Make the Playoffs (+185)
The Seahawks exceeded expectations last year, going Over their total of 8.5, despite missing the playoffs. I see this offense looking more like the 2022 playoff team, than last year’s third-place squad. We should expect a huge jump in performance from second-year wideout Jaxon Smith-Njigba, and the offensive line should improve as well. If they get just average play from the O-Line, and first-year head coach Mike Macdonald works his magic on a defense that ranked 30th last year, Seattle should be a wild card team in a wide-open, and frankly mediocre, NFC pool. The key for them is capitalizing on the early part of the schedule. A 4-1 record is well within reach in their first five games, and if they do that, we’ll be in good shape for BOTH of these plays.

Minnesota Vikings Under 6.5 Wins (+120)
Minnesota Vikings Alt Under 5.5 Wins (+210)
Could this schedule be more brutal for Minnesota? From the looks of things, a 2-7 start may be their BEST-case scenario, and if they don’t get by the Giants in Week 1, they could very well be winless until November! The worst part is that Sam Darnold has arguably his best situation to be successful that he’s ever had at the pro ranks, but I don’t trust his offensive line or defense to keep this team in games. With that schedule, not only do I love the Under 6.5, but I’m also happy to play the alternate Under 5.5 wins at better than 2-1 odds.

Pittsburgh Steelers Over 8.5 Wins (+125)
The Steelers won 19 games in the past two seasons with Kenny Pickett as QB1! If that isn’t proof of “Mike Tomlin Magic,” I don’t know what is. Whether Tomlin lets Russ cook, or Justin Fields gets the job I feel he deserves, he’ll have an upgrade at the quarterback position and at offensive coordinator with Arthur Smith’s creative offense guaranteed to change the pace of what we’ve seen in Pittsburgh during Matt Canada’s tenure. Yes, many projections give Pittsburgh the league’s toughest schedule this year, but that doesn’t worry me. They’re going to surprise people with more divisional wins than expected (29-12-1 in their division since 2017), and outside of their own division, they actually draw some fairly favorable matchups with the likes of the Broncos, Chargers, Giants, Commanders and Raiders, among others (I don’t rule out the Falcons and Cowboys as beatable foes). I’m not making the mistake of betting on Tomlin to have a losing record…not in this lifetime!

Houston Texans to Win AFC South (+105)
If you think CJ Stroud and company are going to regress after the additions of Stefon Diggs, Joe Mixon, Danielle Hunter and others, you must not think much of DeMeco Ryans! It only took one year but Stroud and Ryans have asserted themselves among the best quarterback/head coach duos that exist in the league today. In addition to a seemingly endless array of weapons on offense, this team will also boast one of the league’s most feared pass rushes. Yes, the first-place schedule is much tougher than last year’s last-place schedule, but that comes with the territory of being one of the best teams in the league, and they’ll respond to the increase in competition just fine.

Detroit Lions to Win NFC North (+135)
It’s Dan Campbell’s world, and we’re all just living in it. With all due respect to what the Packers did in the second half of last season, and on Wild Card Weekend, they’re still not up to Detroit’s level in terms of talent (or toughness). The Lions offense can get so creative with their weapons, they have a top-tier offensive line, they retained one of the best offensive minds in the league in OC Ben Johnson, their defense appears to be vastly improved, and they have an incredibly favorable schedule, with 14 of 17 games being played indoors this year. The stars appear to be aligning for Detroit after they seemed to be 30 minutes away from an NFC championship the last time we saw this team.

Jared Goff to Win MVP 27-1 (now 25-1)
Given how high I am on the Lions, it makes sense I view Goff as a legitimate contender for the MVP award this year, no? The two key factors here for Goff are the return of Ben Johnson and 14 of those 17 games coming indoors, with the only potential for serious weather appearing to be Week 16 in Chicago. After finishing top-four in yards, yards per game (among QBs who played at least half their team’s games) and touchdowns a year ago, the only thing left for Goff to do would be get the one seed. Nine of the past 11 MVPs played on the top seed in their conference, so if Detroit overtakes San Francisco for that top spot, that would help Goff’s case immensely.

Super Bowl LIX: Baltimore Ravens Over Detroit Lions (75-1)
I know…I’m crazy for not having the Chiefs in here. It’s hard to imagine the Super Bowl without a certain Patrick Mahomes in it, but I’m going to take a chance, be bold, and say Lamar Jackson finally gets to hoist the Lombardi Trophy this year. Make no mistake though, if Mahomes, Steve Spagnuolo and company do make it to the big game, my money will be on them just like it’s been in all four of their appearances.

Back to Baltimore though, since I’ve already stated all the things I love about Detroit this season. Jackson’s coming off his second MVP award, but after losing the conference championship at home last season, he may be entering the 2024 campaign with a bigger chip on his shoulder than ever before. With Derrick Henry beside him in the backfield, there’ll be less pressure on Jackson to use his legs, and I love the emergence of Isaiah Likely in this offense as one of Jackson’s favorite targets, behind Mark Andrews and Zay Flowers. The offensive line will be much better than people expect, and first-year coordinator Zach Orr’s defense will pick up where they left off a year ago. Orr’s defense will be VERY similar to the top-ranked scoring unit that Mike Macdonald led, and the Ravens, once again, will be the most complete team in football this year, except this time, they’ll get the job done.

Will Hill

Pittsburgh Steelers Worst Record +3100
When you have two quarterbacks, you have no quarterback, and the Steelers certainly have two quarterbacks. Justin Fields and Russell Wilson were available for virtually nothing for a reason this offseason. Anyone who cites Tomlin’s track record of winning records is dismissing the luck factor. Last year Pitt went 5-1 in the division and swept the Bengals and Ravens. But they didn’t face Joe Burrow and instead they got to face Jake Browning twice, along with Tyler Huntley and Dorian Thompson Robinson.

They start their season at Atlanta and at Denver, against a Broncos team that looks perhaps better than expected, in a place that’s tough to win in September. If they don’t bank wins early, the gauntlet that is their second-half schedule will have them picking in the top five, with an outside shot at being the worst team. Tomlin has certainly overachieved with middling talent the past few years, but this is still a coach that has lost home playoff games to Blake Bortles and Baker Mayfield, and also lost a playoff game to Tim Tebow. Tomlin gets a whole lot of credit for a coach who hasn’t won a playoff game since 2016. This is the year that the luck runs out. 

New York Jets +1500 Last Undefeated Team
The Jets start out with a tough game in San Francisco, but the Super Bowl hangover is one trend that has been consistent through the years. If the Jets can win (or tie) that game, the path is certainly there. After the 49ers, the Jets have games against the Titans, Patriots, Broncos and Vikings. They then host the Bills before playing the Steelers and Patriots again. This team won seven games with quarterbacks who may never play again in the NFL. The Rodgers decline is overstated, as he was playing with a fractured thumb in 2022. The talent will match the hype this year, so 15-1 is a good number considering the schedule after Week 1. 

Jared Smith

Los Angeles Chargers Under 8.5 Wins (+135)
Harbaugh took over as GM, along with former Ravens front office guru Joe Horitz, and mismanaged a dire cap situation. Veteran presences on offense like WR Keenan Allen, WR Mike Williams, RB Austin Ekeler, and TE Gerald Everett are all gone, leaving the Chargers with the worst skill position group in the NFL. On defense, Khalil Mack returns along with his 17 sacks from last season, but six were in one game against Aidan O’Connell who was making his NFL debut, and four others came against Zach Wilson and Bailey Zappe. At 33 years old, I question how productive Mack can be. Joey Bosa also returns on a restructured deal. When healthy he is elite, but he has only played 14 combined games in the last two seasons.

These moves send a clear signal that Harbaugh will implement a culture built around running the football and playing defense, which might work in the Big Ten but not in the modern NFL. Justin Herbert has the physical tools to be an elite passer in this league but he is now wearing Harbaugh handcuffs, not to mention new OC Greg Roman made the Ravens offense look pedestrian with Lamar Jackson. Since 2000, this is the second-highest preseason win total for a team following a season of five or fewer wins. There have been 15 other teams with a win total of 8+ after five or less wins the prior year, and 11 of the 15 teams stayed Under their season total the following season. Sell the Chargers.  

Week 1 – Las Vegas Raiders/Los Angeles Chargers Under 42.5
This will be as much of a home game for the Raiders as it will be for the Chargers, so the crowd won’t be much of a factor for either side. I’m very down on the Chargers skill position group this year and I expect Jim Harbaugh to lean on the running game, especially early in the season. They might not have much choice because they lost virtually all of their offensive production from last year. This is a subpar skill position group and Justin Herbert missed most of preseason with a foot injury.

I would be surprised if the Chargers offense was in sync from the start. Meanwhile, the Raiders offense has identity problems as well, with the very average Gardner Minshew getting the nod at QB1 after getting pushed by Aidan O’Connell in camp. The identity in Vegas this year will be built around culture and defense under Antonio Pierce. They might have the best defensive line in the NFL adding Christian Wilkins to pair with Maxx Crosby. Divisional Unders in Week 1 are 11-3 over the last two seasons. Expect this to be a cagey affair.

Tim Murray

Philadelphia Eagles to Win NFC East + Oregon to Make CFP (+140)
The Eagles’ odds to win the NFC East have been on the move all throughout the offseason. After collapsing following a 10-1 start to last season (finished 11-6 and lost to Tampa Bay, 32-9, in the playoffs), Philadelphia made much-needed upgrades to the offense, coaching staff, and secondary. The Eagles acquired RB Saquon Barkley via free agency and traded for WR Jahan Dotson. Dotson, a 2022 first-round pick, was clearly not in the plans for the new coaching staff in Washington. Philadelphia sent a third-round pick and a pair of seventh-round picks to the Commanders in exchange for him. Dotson will fit in as the third receiver for the Eagles behind AJ Brown and DeVonta Smith. Additionally, the Eagles added WR Parris Campbell in free agency and former Florida State WR Johnny Wilson in the NFL Draft. The Eagles hired Kellen Moore as its offensive coordinator and Vic Fangio as defensive coordinator. Lastly, Philadelphia spent its first two picks in the draft on secondary help. Former Toledo DB Quinyon Mitchell and former Iowa DB Cooper DeJean should make an immediate impact for the Eagles.

From a schedule standpoint, defending NFC East champion Dallas will face a first-place schedule, while Philadelphia will play a second-place schedule. Philadelphia’s unique opponents are Green Bay, LA Rams, and Jacksonville while Dallas will play Detroit, San Francisco, and Houston. Based on preseason win totals, the Eagles face the ninth-easiest schedule, while Dallas faces the 22nd-easiest. 

As mentioned prior, the price on Philadelphia to win the NFC East has been on the move all throughout the offseason and currently sits at -125 at DraftKings Sportsbook. I got a little creative with this bet and added Oregon to make the College Football Playoff (-300) to make it a cross sport parlay. The Ducks are loaded headed into the 2024 season and I fully expect them to make a run in the College Football Playoff. Oregon should be a favorite in every game this year (Oregon is currently -1 vs. Ohio State on Oct 12). 

Jalen Hurts to Win NFL MVP (14-1)
In 2022, Jalen Hurts finished second in MVP voting to Patrick Mahomes. The Eagles went 14-1 in Hurts’ 15 starts two seasons ago. He threw 22 touchdowns with just six interceptions and rushed for 760 yards and 13 scores. Last year, the Eagles dropped six of their final seven games, and the Hurts threw 15 interceptions, which is the third-highest in the NFL. Philadelphia upgraded its offensive coordinator, replacing Brian Johnson with Kellen Moore. Moore guided the Cowboys to the top offense in 2019 and 2021 (total yards).

Additionally, the Eagles upgraded the running back room with Saquon Barkley and added depth at wide receiver trading for Jahan Dotson during training camp. Not to mention, the trio of WR AJ Brown, WR DeVonta Smith, and TE Dallas Goedert are back for another year. Philadelphia will obviously miss future Hall of Fame C Jason Kelce, but Cam Jurgens will slide over to center with hopefully a minimal drop-off. Lastly, as stated above, the Eagles’ schedule is quite manageable this year. With the Eagles the favorite to win the NFC East and upgrades on the offensive side of the ball, Hurts is in line to be back in the MVP conversation in 2024. 

Greg Peterson

Fewest Wins: New York Giants 10/1
The Giants have a quarterback in Daniel Jones, who must now shoulder the workload in leading the offense with running back Saquon Barkley gone despite four straight seasons of passing for 15 touchdowns or fewer.

The NFC East has two clear favorites in the Dallas Cowboys and Philadelphia Eagles that should sweep their series against the Giants, and the Washington Commanders, with Jayden Daniels at quarterback, have the talent to do so as well. Additionally, their cross-division games are against the AFC North and NFC South. In that batch of teams, only the Carolina Panthers present a game that they have a good chance to win, and that will be a game played in Germany, making for all sorts of challenges.

When the team made their surprise playoff run in 2022, their lone victory that came by more than 10 points was against the Jeff Saturday-coached Indianapolis Colts, and in 2023, the team was exposed as having had good fortune in one-score games the season before. While the Brian Burns signing helps the defense, it wouldn’t be enough to allow this team to hold in games with an offense that might be one of the least effective in the league.

Zachary Cohen

Jared Goff to Lead NFL in Passing Yards (11-1) 
A lot of people are backing Goff to be the MVP of the regular season, but I’m going to simplify it a little and take him to lead the league in passing yards. Last year, only Tua Tagovailoa finished with more passing yards than Goff’s 4,575 yards. However, Tagovailoa really did a lot of his damage in blowouts over bad teams. Goff was a little more consistent in piling up his yardage. 

The reality is that my peers are onto something in backing Goff, who is set to play a dome-heavy schedule in 2024. He’s a completely different quarterback when taken out of the elements. However, I’d rather play less favorable odds for him to just make a mark in a specific stats category, as MVP is still a narrative-driven award. I’m not sure people will get on board with him winning something that prestigious, even if he puts up MVP-caliber numbers. He doesn’t have the greatest reputation in the world, and his coaches get most of the credit for Detroit’s team success. 

Adam Burke

Will Levis Over 3,400.5 Passing Yards (-110)
Levis started nine games during his rookie season and got to 1,808 yards in a season where DeAndre Hopkins lapped the field on the Titans roster in receiving yardage. This year, D-Hop doesn’t have to do it all alone, as Tennessee brought in Calvin Ridley and Tyler Boyd. Not only that, but Levis was sacked 28 times in those nine starts. This season, he has the benefit of JC Latham at left tackle and veteran Lloyd Cushenberry III at center. Oh, yeah, and one of the best offensive line coaches to ever do it in Bill Callahan. And Bill’s son, Brian, is the head coach, a guy who has worked with Joe Burrow, Matthew Stafford, and Peyton Manning, among others. This is the year Levis takes a huge leap.

Dave Tuley

Houston Texans 16-1 to Win Super Bowl
I first gave out this play at 22-1 on VSiN.com in my annual “too-soon” Super Bowl futures column after the last Super Bowl in February. I’d like to believe it’s sharp action that has driven it down to the current price of 16-1 at Circa, and still playable in my opinion. When I wrote the piece, I pointed out that this would be an amazing story, as the Texans were basically one year removed from blowing the chance at the No. 1 overall draft pick. That cost coach Lovie Smith his job (well, that was never given as the official reason, but it didn’t help, right?). The Houston organization recovered quickly by hiring DeMeco Ryans and then taking CJ Stroud with the No. 2 pick, and all he did was end up as Offensive Rookie of the Year.

For most of the season, it looked like the Jaguars would run away with the AFC South, but the Texans stole the division and routed the Browns 45-15 in the wild-card round (after not getting the respect they deserved as 2-point underdogs despite being at home) before being ousted by the Ravens in the divisional playoffs. I know several people who took a flier on the Texans this past season. They were live longshots (in my humble opinion) and certainly have the opportunity to take another step forward if Ryans can continue to improve the defense to go with the already high-powered offense. Tuley noted: The Texans are now +810 to win the AFC at Circa after being 12-1 in February.

Dallas Cowboys 20-1 to Win Super Bowl
It’s very trendy to knock the Cowboys’ championship drought (their last Super Bowl title was in 1996 at Sun Devil Stadium in Tempe, Arizona, when I was single, running around Phoenix and had Cardinals season tickets) and recent postseason woes (they were upset 48-32 as 7-point home favorites in the wild-card round last month). However, the fact remains that they were No. 1 in the NFL in scoring offense (29.9 points per game) and No. 5 in scoring defense (18.5 points per game), and they should be right there in the mix again.

Frankly, I’m surprised they’re offered this high since they are such a public team overall (unlike the Texans above, with a much smaller fan base). I could make the argument, and I guess I am, that this is the better betting value just based on the fact the Texans’ price is probably a little short just because of how far they’ve come in such a short time after being the longest odds on the board last season at a consensus 200-1. 

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