NFL Betting Splits update for Week 5

By
Steve Makinen
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638
 

Strategies using NFL DraftKings Betting Splits data

Strategies using NFL DraftKings Betting Splits data

 

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One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the Betting Splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us detailing the breakdowns of the money & ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. In an article published in the 2023 NFL Betting Guide Part 2, Steve Makinen outlined 12 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits data developed in the 2022 season. The stats of these systems are as of the start of the season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for this week’s games as of Sunday morning at 7:30 AM PT. These can AND WILL change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until kickoff for best usage.

DK Betting Splits system #1: When more than 65% of the handle was on a particular side of an ATS wager, this majority group was just 35-53 ATS (39.8%). The number for this “super-majority” in college football was closer to 80%. In other words, if you see 2/3 of the handle backing one side in an NFL game this season, it’s best to fade it.

System Matches (FADE ALL): MIAMI, NEW ENGLAND, DETROIT, NY JETS, SAN FRANCISCO

DK Betting Splits system #2: The percentage breakdown can be expanded a bit for the number of bets. When 63%+ of the number of bets were on a particular side of an ATS wager, this majority group was just 66-92 ATS (41.8%). The NFL is the most public of all bet-able sports. If 63%+ of the bettors at DraftKings likes a particular side, fade ‘em.

It’s safe to assume that you don’t want to be part of the supermajority of DraftKings bettors on ATS wagers.

System Matches (FADE ALL): MIAMI, BALTIMORE, DETROIT, HOUSTON, PHILADELPHIA, NY JETS, KANSAS CITY, SAN FRANCISCO, GREEN BAY

DraftKings bettors were at their absolute worst last season when analyzing divisional games:

DK Betting Splits system #3: In NFL divisional games of 2022, DK majority handle bettors were absolutely awful, as this majority group was just 36-64 ATS (36%). With the obvious generality that public bettors love favorites, it’s clear that they don’t value the stakes of these rivalry games and what they mean for the competitors.

System Matches (FADE ALL): BALTIMORE, TENNESSEE

DK Betting Splits system #4: Similarly to #3 above, when the majority number of bets staked its side in an NFL divisional game last year, this majority group was just 37-60 ATS (38.1%).

System Matches (FADE ALL): BALTIMORE, INDIANAPOLIS

DK Betting Splits system #5: When the majority handle and the number of bets were on road favorites for an ATS wager, these majority groups were just 36-52 ATS (40.9%) & 35-53 ATS (39.8%) respectively. Both are losing propositions, and most often, these majorities match up.

System Matches (FADE ALL): BALTIMORE, CINCINNATI, PHILADELPHIA, KANSAS CITY

DK Betting Splits system #6: When the majority handle and number of bets were on road underdogs for an ATS wager, these majority groups actually produced winning records, 26-25 ATS (51%) and 34-32 ATS (51.5%) respectively. This matches up somewhat with the logic I used in explaining some college successes. When the public goes “against the grain”, they win. In this case, mildly.

System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): NY JETS, GREEN BAY

DK Betting Splits system #7: When the majority handle and number of bets backed a team in an ATS wager in the higher-profile, non-Sunday afternoon games, these majority groups were just 28-44 ATS (38.9%) and 29-44 ATS (39.7%) respectively. This set of games includes all the Thursday, Saturday, Sunday night (SNF), and Monday night contests.

System Matches (FADE ALL): SAN FRANCISCO, GREEN BAY

DK Betting Splits system #8: In another rare winning record, when the majority of the handle backed the team with fewer season wins in a 2022 NFL game for an ATS wager, this majority group was 26-22 ATS (54.2%). This is another situation where going against the grain paid off.

System Matches: PLAY NEW ENGLAND

DK Betting Splits system #9: The average NFL total last year was 44.2. In games where the totals reached 46.5 or higher and odds makers thus expected them to be a little more explosive, the majority number of bettors struggled, going 28-53 ATS (34.6%). Not surprisingly, they sided with the favored team in 59 of the games.

System Matches (FADE ALL): MIAMI, PHILADELPHIA, KANSAS CITY

DK Betting Splits system #10: When 56% or more of the handle was on the Under in an NFL game total, this majority group was quite sharp, 26-18 ATS (59.1%). This number for a “supermajority” in the NFL is quite low, evidence of how rarely the betting public bets the low side of a total. Incidentally, the same majority figure for the number of bets produced a 23-17 record.

System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): NO-NE, BAL-PIT, TEN-IND

DK Betting Splits system #11: Quite the opposite of #11, the magic mark for a supermajority on the handle for betting Overs was 64% or higher, and this group performed miserably last season with a record of 38-63 (37.6%). This has been a long-standing belief to me, but when the Over looks too obvious, it usually loses. On the number of bets, this same super majority percentage produced a slightly improved 41-52 record.

System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): NYG-MIA, HOU-ATL, PHI-LAR, KC-MIN

DK Betting Splits system #12: Call this one the Over trap, but when a supermajority (>=64%) of handle was on the Over, and DraftKings moved the opening total lower throughout the week, this majority group lost big, going just 9-29 (23.7%). Almost as if they were trying to bait more people into taking the Over. This is a classic example of those behind the counter being smarter than those trying to cash the tickets.

System Matches (PLAY UNDER): NYG-MIA, HOU-ATL

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Steve Makinen
Steve Makinen
As one of the original founders of StatFox, Steve Makinen has been in the business of sports betting and data analysis for almost 25 years now. In his time in the industry, Steve has worked in a variety of capacities on both sides of the betting counter, from his early days of developing the StatFox business, to almost a decade of oddsmaking consulting for one of the world's leading sportsbooks, to his last seven years as Point Spread Weekly and Analytics Director with VSiN. Steve has always believed that number crunching and handicapping through foundational trends and systems is the secret to success and he shares this data with VSiN readers on a daily basis for all of the major sports.

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