NFL Betting Systems to Turn Week 1 Results into Week 2 Profits:
There is nothing quite like NFL Week 1 each season, and in particular, the reaction to it. There are always big performances, surprise results, key injuries, and plenty more for the armchair quarterbacks to analyze. Unfortunately, what usually comes along with all of the analysis is overreaction. Let’s face it, even VSiN hosts do it. It’s almost impossible not to.
This past weekend was an eventful one in the league, with last year’s Super Bowl champion Eagles kicking off the action with a tight win on Thursday night and wrapping up with an unexpected comeback win in Chicago for QB J.J. McCarthy and the Vikings. In between, there was plenty more to take in. We saw dominant victories by the Colts, Jaguars, Commanders and Packers, while also witnessing three upset wins, one of which could eventually be dubbed the game of the year as the Bills edged the Ravens on Sunday night. There were also a lot of Unders on totals, which you’ll see lead to some interesting betting opportunities for this week. Fortunately, unlike past years, the injury news wasn’t a big story in this past opening week, with tight ends Brock Bowers and George Kittle the biggest names impacted.
Still, the reality of Week 1 is that it is just one of 17 games for teams in the 2025 schedule. Nothing has been formulated yet, and we’ve only gotten perhaps hints of what could happen. To put it in perspective, do you ever see overblown analysis of the first 10 games of an MLB season? The first five games of a team’s NBA slate? The answer is always a resounding no.
With all of this in mind, bettors need to understand that teams tend to react and progress from their Week 1 results to their Week 2 games similarly year after year. I like to quantify these “reactions” through the use of betting systems, and I detail 15 betting systems below that are designed to help bettors turn what we saw in Week 1 into Week 2 profits. All of them have at least a 60% winning percentage and at least a 16% ROI.
This year’s Week 1 action was a little different from recent years in that favorites won 13 of the 16 games, including 9-7 ATS. That makes the chalk 25-7 outright over the last two seasons. Historically, underdogs have fared much better. Unlike the last two seasons, however, it was not a bloodbath for survivor contest players, with the week’s biggest favorites, the Eagles, Bengals, Commanders, Cardinals and Broncos all winning outright. Again, pretty much all of the results lead to a number of successful angles for Week 2 that have thrived since I introduced them almost a decade ago.
Let’s take a foundational look at why these angles may be consistently successful. First off, the NFL is a huge momentum league, and with only one game every week, it gives a team a lot of time to either stew on a loss or bask in a victory. During this time, the losing teams may start to doubt themselves, or the winning teams may be thinking too highly of their own games. The betting public and media sensationalize this type of thinking and theorize that what they just saw in Week 1 is the new standard. Bookmakers are thus placed in a precarious position of having to juggle what just happened with what should happen in the follow-up week, along with what the public thinks will happen. It is a fine balancing act.
The systems below come as a result of two things: first, bookmakers not wanting to over-adjust, and second, bookmakers trying to balance their sides against new public sentiment. Overadjusting seems to be getting more common in college football, but in the pros, with all the money that is wagered each week, they realize they can’t radically adjust their lines in such a short window simply because of one game result. They are forced to wait out the first few weeks in hopes that everything balances out. Because of this “oddsmaker patience,” I believe these one-week transitional systems are valid only this early in the season. So, let’s take a look, and then of course, take advantage.
1. Teams playing a second straight home game in Week 2 and are favored have gone 14-10 SU and but 5-19 ATS (20.8%) over the last 13 seasons (-15.9 units, ROI: -66.3%, Grade 70)
2025 Plays: Play AGAINST GREEN BAY
Analysis: This system is 1-12 ATS since 2017, as perhaps too much stock is put into the back-to-back home-field edge scenario. You’ll probably have to fade the public as the Packers have been one of the most formidable teams at home in the league over the past couple of seasons. Last year, the Dolphins and Lions lost outright, while the Chiefs won but failed to cover.
2. Week 2 teams that scored 30+ points last week and are now playing as favorites of six points or less OR are underdogs are 20-38 SU and 22-36 ATS (37.9%) since 2012 (-17.6 units, ROI: -30.3%, Grade 66)
2025 Plays: Play AGAINST PITTSBURGH, NY JETS, INDIANAPOLIS
Analysis: If there’s any sign of what we saw from a team the prior week not being indicative of its true self, this system would reveal it. Oddsmakers clearly don’t trust these teams’ explosive Week 1 efforts, as they aren’t priced as if that potency is going to last. Seemingly, it doesn’t, as these big Week 1 performers crash down to earth quickly. In 2024, three qualifying plays went 3-1 SU and ATS; however, as they continued their offensive rolls, putting up 28 PPG. We’ll see what Week 2 has in store for our three qualifying teams of 2025.
3. Teams that won close games in Week 1 (by three points or fewer) are 41-21-1 Under (66.1%) the total in Week 2 since 2005 (+16.8 units, ROI: 27.1%, Grade 65)
2025 Plays: UNDER in Jacksonville-CINCINNATI, BUFFALO-NY Jets, Seattle-PITTSBURGH, Atlanta-MINNESOTA, TAMPA BAY-Houston
Analysis: This one is genuinely tough to explain, but it could stem from the emotional toll that winning a close game brings, and the potential offensive letdown that might occur, at least early in the game. Whatever the reason, 20 games over .500 gives the system merit. We have qualifiers in two prime-time games on Sunday and Monday night, which usually trend under as it is. Interestingly, a couple of the qualifiers, Cincinnati and Tampa Bay, were expected offensive juggernauts that survived Week 1 games despite not producing their best offensive efforts. This system was 2-0 last season.
4. Teams playing a second straight divisional game in Week 2 are an impressive 36-18-1 SU and ATS (66.7%) since 2003 (+16.2 units, ROI: 30%, Grade 65)
2025 Plays: Play ON CLEVELAND, LA CHARGERS
Analysis: Divisional games typically require greater focus and intensity, and these teams are well-prepared the second time around. There were eight divisional games in Week 1, thus leading to two qualifiers. Note that Dallas/NY Giants and Chicago/Detroit cancel each other out.
5. Teams that beat their Week 1 point spread by eight points or more in non-conference games are 22-11-3 Under (66.7%) the total in Week 2 since 2002 (+9.9 units, ROI: 30%, Grade 64)
2025 Plays: Play UNDER in JACKSONVILLE-Cincinnati
Analysis: Week 1 higher-scoring teams typically grab the attention of bettors. Having played well offensively against unfamiliar opponents, they typically come back to earth against higher totals from oddsmakers. For 2025, there is just one qualifier, Jacksonville, which beat Carolina 26-10 and now takes on a Bengals team that gained less than 10 yards of offense in the second half of their win at Cleveland.
6. In Week 2 games between teams that are both 0-1 ATS, underdogs are on a run of 20-23 SU but a phenomenal 28-13-2 ATS (68.3%) since 2014 (+14.6 units, ROI: 35.6%, Grade 64)
2025 Plays: Play NEW ENGLAND, CHICAGO, SEATTLE, KANSAS CITY
Analysis: The point spread in the NFL can generate a lot of motivation. When a team is an underdog against another team that underperformed last week, that team can feel a bit of disrespect. On the other hand, it’s tough being a favorite in the NFL, especially when a team isn’t clicking. The favorites in these games didn’t play well in Week 1, who’s to say they will respond in Week 2 when they are expected to win? The most interesting of this year’s four qualifying teams finds Kansas City playing as a home dog to Philadelphia in a Super Bowl revenge scenario.
7. Teams playing as underdogs in their second of back-to-back divisional games are 15-16-1 SU but 21-10-1 ATS (67.8%) in Week 2 since 2004 (+10 units, ROI: 32.3%, Grade 63)
2025 Plays: Play ON CLEVELAND, NY GIANTS, CHICAGO
Analysis: This is basically the same as #4 above, only adding a line qualifier. The motivation of being an underdog to a divisional opponent provides the needed incentive for these Week 2 dogs to compete. This has been an outstanding money line system over the years as well, hitting at 48.4% on outright winners, so don’t ignore that betting option. For 2025, add the Giants and Chicago as dogs.
8. Teams that lost by double digits in Week 1 have responded by going 50-29-3 ATS (63.3%) in Week 2 over the last 13 seasons (+18.1 units, ROI: 22.9%, Grade 62)
2025 Plays: MIAMI, CAROLINA, NY GIANTS, DETROIT
Analysis: This is as direct an overreaction system as there is, and it goes against all that the betting public was told they learned in Week 1. With so much emotion on the line in a season opener, it’s no wonder that a team over- or underachieves in that game. Those who got beaten soundly in their opener have tended to come back strong in their second games. These are hard teams to back, though, as your initial impression is that they aren’t good. Three of four qualifiers on this system won last year, including Las Vegas, which won outright at Baltimore as a 9-point dog. Of this year’s four qualifiers, two are favored, Detroit and Miami.
9. In Week 2 games between teams that are both 1-0 ATS, underdogs also rule at the betting window, 22-27 SU but 30-18-1 ATS (62.5%) since 2012 (+10.2 units, ROI: 21.3%, Grade 60)
2025 Plays: Play on WASHINGTON, TENNESSEE, NY JETS, LAS VEGAS
Analysis: This system is 12-3 ATS since 2020, as again underdogs are highly motivated by the point spread, particularly since they played well enough to cover the prior week, perhaps building confidence.
10. Teams that lost (or tied) as road favorites in Week 1 have bounced back with a record of 21-12 SU & ATS (63.6%) in Week 2 over the last 13 seasons (+7.8 units, ROI: 23.6%, Grade 60)
2025 Plays: Play ON BALTIMORE
Analysis: Week 1 road favorites are usually highly regarded teams. They have proved good enough to bounce back from a loss in that game, in most cases avoiding an 0-2 start. On Sunday night, Baltimore lost in the most excruciating fashion at Buffalo after dominating for most of the game.
11. Teams whose opponents played in the weeknight season opening games of Thursday and Friday, and thus have extra rest, are 17-25 SU but 25-16-1 ATS (61%) in Week 2 since 2005 (+7.4 units, ROI: 18%, Grade 57)
2025 Plays: Play on NY GIANTS, LAS VEGAS
Analysis: Routine, routine, routine. Teams that play in the season opener are out of that typical routine, and most teams rely on that for peak performance throughout the season. Extra rest is typically valued more later in the season. This is a tough system to stomach, usually, since it requires fading two of the better teams in the league. In 2024, we had three ATS winners, with Cincinnati barely losing at K.C., Atlanta upsetting Philadelphia and Las Vegas pulling a stunner in Baltimore. For 2025, Las Vegas qualifies for a second straight year, while Philadelphia and Kansas City cancel each other out.
12. Week 2 teams that went Under their Week 1 total by at least 17 points are 27-17 Over (61.4%) the total since 2008 (+9.3 units, ROI: 21.1%, Grade 56)
2025 Plays: Over the total in WASHINGTON-Green Bay, NY GIANTS-Dallas, LA RAMS-Tennessee, Tampa Bay-HOUSTON
Analysis: These teams underachieved offensively in Week 1, creating a situation where oddsmakers adjust their total downward too quickly. Early public perception says that these could be worse offenses in 2025. This system proves it’s too early to make that conclusion. This angle was 2-0 last time it came up in 2023.
13. Teams that lost on the point spread by more than 14 points in Week 1 divisional games are 16-10 SU and 15-10-1 ATS (60%) in Week 2 since 2007 (+4 units, ROI: 16%, Grade 55)
2025 Plays: NONE
Analysis: Second-week point spread adjustments tend to go against teams that were beaten soundly by divisional opponents in Week 1, and are in most cases, over-adjustments. This system lost last year with Carolina, which got tagged at home by the Chargers. Unfortunately, there are no qualifiers this year as six of the eight divisional games were decided by six points or fewer. The closest qualifier was Detroit, which lost by 14 points on a +1.5 point line.
The following two systems have been on my list for many years but have no qualifying plays for 2025:
14. Week 1 favorites of six points or more that lost their games have bounced back with a record of 20-6 SU and ATS (76.9%) in Week 2 since 2002 (+13.4 units, ROI: 51.5%, Grade 70)
2025 Plays: NONE
Analysis: Teams favored by six points or more in Week 1 are typically well-respected clubs in the NFL, and naturally, they tend to bounce back when aided by a sense of urgency. In 2020, San Francisco and Indianapolis both responded to Week 1 upset losses with easy Week 2 wins. In 2021, the Bills rebounded quickly against Miami, winning 35-0. In 2022, San Francisco won handily, Denver won but failed to cover and Cincinnati lost outright. There were no plays in 2023. The Bengals qualified in 2024 and lost outright but covered at Kansas City. Unfortunately, for the second time in three years, there are no qualifiers this season.
15. Teams that recorded big Week 1 divisional wins by seven points or more are 29-23 SU and 29-19-2 ATS (60.4%) since 2006 in Week 2 (+8.1 units, ROI: 16.9%, Grade 56)
2025 Plays: NONE — Green Bay and Washington face each other
Analysis: Momentum created by a big divisional win in Week 1 seems to carry over into Week 2. This is another angle that went 2-0 last year, with the Chargers and Saints both recording road blowout victories. Unfortunately, of the eight divisional games last weekend, only two were decided by a TD or more, and the winners of those games face each other on Thursday night.
Good luck with your Week 2 NFL plays!
