NFL Conference Championship Best Bets

I won my first four Best Bets of the NFL Divisional Round weekend, only to drop the two I admittedly proclaimed I was less thrilled about in the Buffalo-Kansas City clash to wrap up the action. I’ve only been counting record though, so the season-long ledger increases by a 4-2 count as we head into the Conference Championship games.

For the season, with only three games remaining, I am standing at 84-60-2 ATS, good for 58.3% and +18 units of profit. As I stated prior to the Wild Card round, I will be offering up at least one pick on every postseason game. I study the history of each round intently, as you may have noticed if you read my NFL Conference Championship Trends piece. So, let’s get to my Conference Championship best bets, breaking down both games for this weekend.

 

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(319) KANSAS CITY at (320) BALTIMORE

Admit it, you probably felt the same initial reaction that I did when the line was released for the AFC Championship game, that being Baltimore by 3.5. My feeling was that it opened up a huge door for Kansas City bettors to slide into, with 3 points being such a key number.

I even projected that at least 70% of the ATS tickets at a place like DraftKings would end up on the side of the Chiefs at that number, especially considering how profitable QB Patrick Mahomes has been as an underdog. Well, I was wrong about the ticket breakdown, as its actually majority-sided to the Ravens. So much in fact, that the line has moved to -4.

Historically speaking, the line move is a big deal, as following the line moves throughout the week heading up to the championship games would have netted you a record of 18-7 ATS (72%) since 2005. As I analyzed the 3.5 initial number a little closer, I also started getting a feeling that “someone knows something” regarding why the Ravens were favored above the 3-point mark.

In all truth, head coach John Harbaugh’s team has been the top team in the conference, particularly in the back half of the season. They are ranked at or near the top in almost all key statistical categories, including rush offense and defense, pass efficiency on both sides of the ball, scoring offense and defense, and turnovers. Unlike the Chiefs, they have not struggled with inconsistency, inability to run the ball, nor inability to get the ball in the end zone while settling for field goals.

The only thing that probably has most bettors doubtful is the Mahomes-Lamar Jackson matchup, as the latter has not earned the big game trust yet. This is his chance, and he has the better team. He also put on quite a show in the second half last week against Houston after shaking off the rust in the first half.

As I shared the list of stats that Baltimore is elite in, the one that is most important to me is defensive yards per pass attempt, as it speaks to the ability of a team to pressure the opposing quarterback and limit big plays through the air. In the recent history of Conference Championship games, teams with the edge in defensive pass efficiency are on a run of 26-16 SU and 28-14 ATS (66.7%), including 11-2-1 ATS in the last 14. Baltimore was #1 in the NFL in yards per pass allowed.

I also like the history of the smaller-level favorites in these games, as hosts favored by less than 7 points are 17-5 SU and 15-7 ATS (68.2%) in their last 22 Conference Championship tries. Kansas City was very fortunate last week to get a matchup against a beat-up Buffalo team that couldn’t stop the ground game or get enough pressure on Mahomes. That will not be the case here as Baltimore is just about full strength and hungry to take down the defending champs.

Conference Championship best bet: Let’s go Baltimore -4 (+/-1) to win the AFC.

(321) DETROIT at (322) SAN FRANCISCO

The prices in the two Conference Championship games almost feel as if they should be reversed if you’re only considering a “what have you done for me lately” strategy. Baltimore is playing better than San Francisco recently, and Detroit has more momentum than Kansas City.

That said, yes, I find a lot of value in a team like the Lions getting 7 points on the road at the 49ers. Not many people are talking about it, but head coach Kyle Shanahan’s team isn’t exactly clicking right now. In fact, in their last six games, they are 4-2 SU but 2-4 ATS, with the two ATS wins coming over Arizona and Washington. The four losses were against the four teams they faced that had anything to play for.

In the last four outings, they are scoring just 22.5 PPG after averaging 34.5 PPG in the six prior. They are also on a six-game ATS losing skid at home. At the same time, the Lions are actually 7-2 ATS on the road, and being an indoor team, they shouldn’t be all that bothered by the moderate weather that awaits in Santa Clara this Sunday.

Also, for as much as motivation should be similar in games like this for the teams, I can’t help but think that the 49ers’ business approach against the Lions’ gritty no-ceiling-on-the-effort way of doing things will favor head coach Dan Campbell’s team.

From a matchup perspective, two solid trends on the Analytics Report this week favor the visitors as well. First, Detroit is 10-0 ATS in the last 10 against high-scoring teams averaging 28+ PPG (3-0 ATS this season), and second, San Francisco is 2-8 in the last 10 home games against decent rushing defenses allowing <3.8 YPR  (0-1 ATS this season). Campbell’s team is also 8-1-1 ATS in its last 10 as an underdog, and the Campbell/Goff combination has produced a 33-15 ATS record together.

From a conference championship history standpoint, beware of large home favorites in this round, at least in terms of laying the points, as those closing as 7-point favorites or more are 12-6 SU but just 6-12 ATS (33.3%) since 1999. I love this Lions team’s mindset as an underdog, but I am more confident in them beating the 7 points than in advancing to SB58.

Conference Championship best bet: Let’s go Detroit +7 (+/-1) to at least make a game out of the NFC title contest.

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