NFL Conference Championship Best Bets from Will Hill:

Here are my NFL Conference Championship best bets and predictions:

 

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Dyami Brown (Commanders) Over 43.5 Rec Yards

With all of the attention rightfully on Jayden Daniels’ rookie season (and postseason), the Commanders’ 2021 third-round WR Dyami Brown has flown under the radar. But he has quietly emerged into a very dangerous and productive number two option behind Terry McLaurin. Brown was mostly an afterthought this season, only tallying 300 yards and one touchdown. But in the playoffs, Brown has blossomed, racking up 197 yards in two games, with a touchdown and 11 catches on 13 targets. I don’t believe the 43.5  projection is properly accounting for the recent surge in Brown’s usage, and with the Commanders a 6-point ‘dog, it’s possible the team is trailing, thus throwing even more late in the game than in past weeks.

Saquon Barkley SB MVP +500

I know some people attack this market weeks ahead of time, looking for astronomical payouts on obscure players they feel have value. I’m not opposed to this approach, and it’s fun to invest occasionally in a lottery-type wager. But I’ll keep it simple here. The Eagles are sizable favorites to reach the Super Bowl, and if they get there, the lookahead lines view them as pretty much a coin toss to win it vs. either the Chiefs or Bills. Usually, SB MVP is a quarterback award, but I would argue it is more of a “superstar/face of the team award,” and the face of most SB-winning teams is usually the quarterback. Barkley is a unique case. He’s clearly the team’s best player, so much so that he is even a finalist for regular season MVP—another award that usually excludes non-QBs. It’s no lock that Barkley automatically gets this award with an Eagles’ championship, but he will not be overlooked like past running backs such as James White and Damien Williams, each of whom scored three touchdowns but didn’t get a sniff of MVP. If the Eagles win, it’s Barkley’s to lose. 

Buffalo Bills/Kansas City Chiefs Over 48.5

This total has ticked up a point or so in the last couple of days, and I can understand why. This will be the fourth time these teams have met in the playoffs since 2020. The other three games saw combined point totals of 62, 78, and 51. The regular season meeting earlier this year also got to 51 points. I can understand if someone wanted to poke holes in my handicap; the relevance of games from several years ago, when the teams were different, can certainly be questioned. But watching all of these Allen vs Mahomes showdowns makes me think the shootouts are not coincidental. They bring out the best in each other, and they both step onto the field realizing who they’re up against. They know punts and field goals aren’t going to cut it, similar to when two great starting pitchers square off in a baseball game. Also, the Bills come off of their win vs the Ravens, a game where they gave up 7.3 yards per play and didn’t force a punt. The Chiefs had trouble stopping the pedestrian Texans offense, forcing just two punts, but were aided by penalties and three missed kicks. I think we’re in for another shootout.

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