Over the last two weeks, I have compiled the trends from both the wild card and divisional rounds of recent NFL playoffs. So far, it’s been a home-dominated playoffs, with hosts winning eight of the 10 games. It’s now time to detail the key historical conference championship playoff trends.

Will we see a continued run of home dominance? Well, hosts have gone 16-4 outright over the last decade in these games, and teams work very hard to earn the right to play in front of the home folks in these all-important contests.

 

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This past weekend’s divisional round proved to be far more competitive than the wild card games, with three of the four contests ending up being decided by a single possession margin. That said, I don’t think anyone is all that surprised about the four teams that advanced, and it figures to make for a compelling day of football on Sunday.

The AFC matchup comes first and is a matchup highlighted by great quarterbacks. Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs make their sixth straight appearance in this game, but this is the first one they’ll play on the road, at Baltimore. The Ravens, 3.5-point favorites at last check, are the conference top seed and led my front-running MVP candidate Lamar Jackson.

The NFC matchup pits the top-seeded 49ers against a team that has never played in a Super Bowl game, Detroit. The Lions last were in the NFC title game in 1991. Oddsmakers don’t give head coach Dan Campbell’s team much of a chance against the 49ers, installing them as 7-point underdogs.

Just by a quick glance at the recent conference title tilts, you can see that it is preferable to be playing at home. Last year’s sweep, both SU and ATS, by the hosts marked the seventh time that happened in the past 10 years. They own a 13-7 ATS edge in that span as well. I have found that when upsets happen, they typically come in years in which the home teams are unexpectedly so. Note that for the ninth time in the last 12 seasons, both #1’s will be hosting the weekend’s games again.

Will another pair of home #1 seeds mean we are looking again at two relatively easy home wins as has become somewhat custom? Considering both #1’s are in excess of field goal favorites for the first time since 2015, that would be the most likely outcome. However, both underdogs will have something to say about that. 

An anomaly that occurred in last January’s games was both games going Under the total for the second straight season. That hasn’t happened since, as far back as my current database goes, 1992. Overs had been the norm prior to 2022, with that totaling option going 9-3 in the six years prior.

Using similar methodologies to the past two weeks, here are some notable trends and systems that have developed in recent conference championship game action. I will be applying this year’s matchups (Baltimore-Kansas City & San Francisco-Detroit) to the key info when applicable.

  • The outright winner has covered the point spread in all but six of the last 44 (86.4%) conference championship playoff games. The most recent team to not do that was the Rams of 2022, as they edged San Francisco 20-17 as 3.5-point favorites. If you recall, this is just a tic below the current wild card rate of (86.6%) by outright winners but well above the divisional round rate (75.6%).
  • Hosts are on a 16-4 SU and 13-7 ATS (65%) run in conference championship play, with both the Chiefs and Eagles beating the point spreads in their games a year ago.
  • There have been 10 road favorites in the last 26 years of the conference championship playoffs, and those teams are 6-4 SU and 5-4-1 ATS. Most recently, Minnesota lost in 2018 to Philadelphia, 38-7 as a 3-point favorite. Neither game will feature a road favorite in 2024.
  • Beware of large home favorites in the conference championship round, at least in terms of laying the points, as those closing as 7-point favorites or more are 12-6 SU but just 6-12 ATS (33.3%) since 1999.
  • Conversely, hosts favored by less than 7 points are 17-5 SU and 15-7 ATS (68.2%) in their last 22 tries.
  • The last 20 times that a home team has won and covered the point spread in the conference title games, that game has also gone Over the total at a 14-6 (70%) rate. However, this was 0-2 in 2023. The last 12 times that a road team covered the point spread in conference title action, Under the total is 8-4, including 2-0 in 2022.
  • Teams that won by 7 points or less in the divisional round are just 3-17 SU and 8-12 ATS (40%) in their last 20 road conference title game appearances, including the loss by San Francisco last year. This trend applies to Kansas City this Sunday.
  • In intra-divisional conference championship games of this playoff round, the favorites are on a 5-1 SU and 3-3 ATS (50%) surge. This won’t apply to either contest for a second straight season.
  • Home teams are 14-3 SU and 11-6 ATS (64.7%) in the last 17 AFC clashes and 14-5 SU and 10-9 ATS (52.6%) in their last 19 NFC tilts.
  • Of the teams in the AFC and NFC Championship contests this year, Baltimore is making its fifth straight appearance since 2001, all on the road, boasting a 2-2 SU and 3-1 ATS in the prior four. Kansas City is in for a sixth straight year and looking for a fourth AFC crown, having split the games 3-2 SU and ATS. However, this will be the first one they have played on the road since a 1994 loss at Buffalo. San Francisco is making its 11th conference title game appearance since ‘93 and owns a 3-7 SU and 4-6 ATS record in the prior six while Detroit has only played in the game once, losing 41-10 to Washington in 1992.
  • Since the 2004 season, playoff experience has meant a great deal to championship hosts. In fact, home teams that were in the playoffs the prior year are on a 23-7 SU and 18-12 ATS (60%) run, including 8-2 SU and 6-4 ATS (60%) versus teams that weren’t in the playoffs the prior season. Both AFC teams were in the 2023 playoffs, as was San Francisco. Detroit is in its first playoffs since 2017.
  • #1 seeds have been the host teams in 45 of the last 62 conference championship games and have gone 31-14 SU and 24-21 ATS (53.3%) in those games. Again, both #1 seeds in 2024 advanced out of the divisional round and will host games this week.
  • Only three teams that were not #1 or #2 seeds have hosted conference championship games in the last 22 years, and all three won outright while going 2-1 ATS. Indianapolis did so in the AFC in 2007, Arizona followed that up two years later for the NFC, and the Rams won without covering in 2022.
  • #2 seeds hosting conference championship games are just 4-7 SU and 4-6-1 ATS (40%) since 1997, with Kansas City being the most recent victim, losing outright to the Bengals in 2022.
  • Wildcard teams, or those seeded #5-#7, have gone just 4-10 SU and 6-8 ATS (42.9%) dating back to ’96 in the conference title games, including just 2-7 SU & 3-6 ATS the last 12 seasons.
  • Matchups pitting a #1 seed versus a #2 seed in the conference championship games have trended Over the total at a 13-5-1 (72.2%) rate since 2002.
  • #1 seeds are on a 9-2 SU and 7-4 ATS (63.6%) surge in conference championship games when hosting any team worse than a #2 seed.
  • Overall, since 1993, Over the total is 35-26-1 (57.4%) in the conference championship playoff games. However, there has been a stark difference when considering conference breakdown lately, as the last 12 AFC games are 8-4 Under (66.7%), while NFC contests are on a 14-7-1 Over (66.7%) surge.
  • Breaking down the totals for this weekend’s games based upon ranges, the seven of the last 11 conference title tilts since ’03 with totals more than 42 but less than 48 have gone Over. The AFC tilt figures to come in this range. Totals less than 41.5 are rare nowadays, but we did have one in 2018, and since 2000, Over the total is 10-4-1 in these games. The last 11 games with totals in the 50s have seen five Overs and six Unders. The NFC total is currently 51.
  • Similarly to the divisional round trends regarding correlated parlays, home conference title point spread wins have typically meant Overs (14-6 in the last 20), while road point spread wins trend Under (8-4 in the last 12)

In each of the last two weeks’ articles, I have pointed out that bettors have been, in fact, “sharp” when it comes to postseason games. For the conference championship round, that pattern continues. Following the line moves throughout the week heading up to the big games would have netted you a record of 18-7 ATS (72%) since 2005. Last year, bettors won the NFC game, backing the Eagle, while the AFC game stayed stable at -1.5 up through kickoff. Be sure to follow the moves throughout the rest of the week up until kickoff, as line moves as of Wednesday were stable at their opening numbers.

Bettors have also done fairly well with totals recently as well, going 15-9 (62.5%) when moving the totals in the last 24 conference championship games. There has also been little movement in the upcoming totals since they were released this past Sunday.

Stats generated in Conference Championship Playoff Games

  • In each successive round so far, it has taken more and more points by the home team to somewhat “ensure” victory, both outright and ATS. That pattern continues for the conference championship round, as the benchmark for success increases to 30 points. Kansas City became the first home team in recent memory to lose with this in 2019, but still, hosts that score 30 points or more are on a 16-1 SU and 15-2 ATS surge (88.2%). Those that don’t reach the 30-point mark are 14-13 SU and 8-19 ATS (29.6%) since 2002.
  • The magic point total for road teams in conference championship playoff action is even more definitive, however, and that benchmark has proven to be 20 points. Visitors scoring 20 points or more are 17-13 SU and 21-8-1 ATS (72.4%) when they reach that mark since 1998.  When scoring less than 20 points, the record of the road teams has dropped dramatically to 2-24 SU and 6-20 ATS (23.1%) since ‘95.
  • Teams that gained more first downs in their respective conference championship games are 18-7 SU and 15-10 ATS (60%) over the last 14 years in those games. There have been three first-down ties, including the 2019 NFC game. You will see later that big plays prove more important than first-down volume.
  • Teams that controlled the time of possession are on a 29-11 SU and 31-9 ATS (77.5%) run in the conference championship playoffs since 2003. This is obviously a critical factor.
  • Conference championship playoff teams that gained more yards rushing in those games are 29-11 SU and ATS (72.5%) over the last 20 seasons. Strangely, at the same time, teams that rush for more yards per attempt in a conference championship playoff game are just 17-23 SU and 19-21 ATS (47.5%) in that same span.
  • Putting up big passing numbers in conference championship playoff games has also proven a key ingredient to success, since those teams are 29-13 SU and ATS (69%) since 2002. Even better, teams that gained more yards per pass attempt in a conference championship playoff game are 31-11 SU and ATS (73.9%) during that same stretch, including ATS wins in the last eight games.
  • Going back to 2003, teams that turn the ball over fewer times in a conference championship are on an impressive 31-4 ATS (88.6%) run, although the Bucs did survive three Tom Brady interception throws in upsetting Green Bay in 2021.
  • Regular season records do not seem to influence conference championship betting trends or the comparison between their record and their opponent’s.  For instance, here are the records of home teams broken up by regular season wins: Home teams that won 14 or more games in the regular season were 9-1 SU and 7-3 ATS, home teams with 12 or 13 regular season wins were 18-12 SU and 13-17 ATS (43.3%), and hosts that won 11 or fewer games were 3-1 SU and ATS. The regular season win totals for this year were 13 for Baltimore, 12 for San Francisco.
  • Road teams that won 12 or more games in the regular season are 3-14 SU and 6-11 ATS (35.3%) in their last 17 conference title games. Road teams with 11 regular season wins were slightly better at 6-9 SU and 8-7 ATS (53.3%) in that same span, and ironically, those visitors that won the fewest games, 10 or less, own the best outright winning percentage at 5-7 SU and 7-5 ATS (58.3%). The Lions won 12 games and Chiefs 11 in the regular season.
  • Home teams that won at least two more games during the regular season than their conference championship playoff opponents are only 12-7 SU and 8-11 ATS (42.2%) since 2002. This trend applies to the Ravens-Chiefs contest.
  • When just one regular season win separated two conference championship playoff opponents, or the records were equal, the home teams are 15-4 SU and 13-6 ATS (68.4%) over the last 15 seasons. San Francisco looks to continue this trend in 2024.
  • Teams that scored more points per game during the regular season are on a 22-10 SU and 18-14 ATS (56.3%) run over the last 16 conference championship playoff seasons. For a third straight season in 2024, the edges belong to both hosts.
  • The ability to run the football has been much-overrated when it comes to conference championship success. Teams who averaged more rushing yards per game are 19-25 SU and 21-23 ATS (47.7%) since 2002. Similarly, those that averaged more yards per rush are just 12-18 SU and 15-15 ATS (50%) over the last 15 seasons. This year’s regular season edge holders in both categories were Baltimore and San Francisco, as both ranked in the top 4 in the NFL in both categories.
  • Passing yardage has meant much more than rushing yardage in terms of conference championship playoff success, with teams owning an edge in total offensive passing yardage going 29-13 SU and 25-17 ATS (59.5%) over the last 22 seasons in this playoff round. More efficient passing yards per attempt teams were a bit worse at 25-17 SU and 23-19 ATS (54.8%).  Detroit and Kansas City gained more yardage passing this season, but the two hosts held the edges in yards per attempt. In fact, the 49ers and Ravens ranked #1 and #3 respectively in this category.
  • Teams that generated more yardage overall offensively in the regular season own a slight edge when it comes to conference championship playoff success, going 26-14 SU and 22-18 ATS (55%) over the last 20 seasons. The Ravens and 49ers will try to extend this trend in 2024.
  • The offensive yards per play statistic has also proven somewhat important, as teams with an edge in that offensive category are 25-11 SU and 21-15 ATS (58.3%) over the last 18 years on championship Sunday. Again, count the Ravens and 49ers as the beneficiaries should this statistical trend continue.
  • Offensive yards per point has not proven to be an effective statistical indicator, as teams who have averaged fewer yards per point are just 20-16 SU and 15-21 ATS (41.7%) in the conference championship playoff round since 2005.
  • The offensive turnovers statistic provides the handicapper very little edge, since teams that turned the ball over fewer times in the regular season than their opponent are only 20-17 SU and 19-18 ATS (51.4%) since 2004 in conference championship games. These teams are on a 12-5-1 ATS run in the last nine seasons, however, so note that the two hosts again hold these edges for the upcoming weekend.
  • Teams that converted third-down opportunities more efficiently in the regular season are 17-13 SU and 16-14 ATS (53.3%) in the last 30 conference championship games.
  • Teams that allowed fewer points per game during the regular season are 15-12 SU and 17-10 ATS (63%) dating back to 2010 in conference championship games, providing a nice edge to handicappers. However, both teams did lose a year ago. Baltimore and San Francisco hold edges over their counterparts in this key statistical area.
  • Defensive rushing yards has been somewhat insignificant when it comes to handicapping conference championship action, as has yards per rush defense, as teams with an edge in that stat are 21-21 SU and 23-19 ATS (54.8%) since 2003.
  • Conference championship playoff teams with an edge in defensive passing yardage allowed over their opponent are 25-17 SU and 27-15 ATS (64.3%) over the last 22 seasons in this round. Teams with the edge in defensive pass efficiency are also 26-16 SU and 28-14 ATS (66.7%), including 11-2-1 ATS in last 14. San Francisco holds measurable edges in both categories for 2024, while the Ravens and Chiefs split the categories. Baltimore was #1 in the NFL in yards per pass allowed.
  • Teams that allowed less yardage overall defensively are 24-18 SU and 26-16 ATS (61.9%) in the AFC and NFC title games since 2003, while those that held an edge in yards allowed per play are a game better at 25-17 SU and 27-15 ATS (64.3%). Advantages to San Francisco on both accounts and a split in the Ravens (YPP) and Chiefs (TYPG) contest.
  • Defensive yards per point should be given at least some consideration for Conference Championship Sunday, since teams with an edge there are 11-13 SU and 8-16 ATS (33.3%) in the last 12 seasons of this round, and 10-20 ATS (33.3%) over the last 30 games. Fading these teams has been a sound strategy. If curious, Baltimore and San Francisco were the better teams in Defensive YPPT in each conference.
  • If you recall, the divisional round trend concerning teams forcing turnovers was very distinctive. Not the same for this weekend, as teams that had more takeaways in the regular season than their opponent are just 21-20 SU and ATS (51.2%) since 2002 in conference championship play.
  • Teams that stopped third-down opportunities more efficiently in the regular season are on a mediocre 19-23 SU and ATS (45.2%) run in the last 42 conference championship games.

The first two rounds of the NFL playoffs have belonged to the home teams, as they have only lost once on each weekend. Make no mistake, especially in the expanded playoff era with just the top seed getting a bye, teams work hard to earn the right to host these games. That said, winning these games puts teams on the ultimate football stage, and there is a lot of pressure that comes with that. There is no shortage of motivation on either side.

Playing the statistical advantages of teams has paid off for bettors somewhat, and while the edges in this year’s contest seem to go back and forth in the AFC, for the most part, San Francisco has enjoyed the “body of work” edges over Detroit. The stats that have proven to mean more have been from passing offense and overall defense.

Sometimes we tend to overcomplicate things at this time of year as we look for the golden nugget. If you’re looking for some questions to ask yourself to start handicapping these games, go with these…Is the host playoff experienced? Where is the money going? Which team has the better quarterback? Which team is playing better right now? And which team gets after the opposing quarterback better?

If the playoffs so far have demonstrated anything, it’s that the answers to these questions are key. For the AFC game, I look back at the article I did at the outset of the playoffs regarding shared championship traits, where the data showed Baltimore as a near “perfect team,” meeting 26 of the 27 criteria.

For the NFC game, are the 49ers clicking enough right now to easily put away a very hungry and gritty Lions team? Oddsmakers haven’t done them any favors by installing them as rather large 7-point favorites. We’ll see. You can find my more detailed thoughts on both games in a separate Best Bets article to be published on VSiN.

Whatever method you use to eventually decide your plays for this weekend, good luck, and we’ll see you back in a couple of weeks as we uncover all of the key betting angles on Super Bowl LVIII!

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Steve Makinen
Steve Makinen
As one of the original founders of StatFox, Steve Makinen has been in the business of sports betting and data analysis for almost 25 years now. In his time in the industry, Steve has worked in a variety of capacities on both sides of the betting counter, from his early days of developing the StatFox business, to almost a decade of oddsmaking consulting for one of the world's leading sportsbooks, to his last seven years as Point Spread Weekly and Analytics Director with VSiN. Steve has always believed that number crunching and handicapping through foundational trends and systems is the secret to success and he shares this data with VSiN readers on a daily basis for all of the major sports.

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