NFL Conference Championship Betting Trends and Systems:
Over the last two weeks, I have compiled the key trends and systems overall from recent NFL playoff action as well as those from both the wild card and divisional rounds. So far, it’s been a pretty much home-dominated playoffs, with hosts winning eight of the ten games. It’s now time to detail all of the key historical handicapping information for the conference championship round. Will we see a continued run of home dominance? Well, hosts have gone 17-5 outright over the last 11 seasons in these games, and top seeds work very hard to earn the right to play on their home fields in these all-important contests.
This past weekend’s divisional round proved to be quite competitive, especially when you consider where the final lines fell. Three of the results hinged on final plays/drives. Last week, I finished my divisional round article by getting you ready for seeing two matchups that might not be expected. While the AFC title game pits the top two seeds, the NFC #1 was, in fact, knocked out last week as Washington rolled into Detroit and pulled a stunner.
***Top NFL Resources***
*Join thousands of other sports bettors and unlock access to picks, public betting splits data, & the VSiN live video broadcast by upgrading to VSiN Pro. Grab your first month for less than $10.*
- NFL Expert Picks
- NFL Betting Hub
- NFL 2024 Week-By-Week Schedule
- Parlay Calculator
- NFL Betting Splits
- NFL Betting Odds
The NFC matchup comes first on Sunday and is a battle between divisional rivals. I’ll have more on that in a bit, but it is just the second such matchup this late in the playoffs since 2011. If you recall, the Rams turned back the 49ers in this game back in 2022 en route to a Super Bowl championship. The Eagles-Commanders matchup is being dubbed one of RB Saquon Barkley, a legit MVP candidate, versus QB Jayden Daniels, a near-lock for Rookie-of-the-Year honors. Philadelphia is a 6-point home favorite at last check.
The latter AFC matchup pits the top-seeded Chiefs, playing in their seventh straight conference title game, against a Buffalo team starved for a chance at the league’s biggest stage. Kansas City has knocked the Bills out of three of the last four postseasons. The two-time defending champs are just 1.5-point favorites, a sign of just how competitive the experts think this game might be.
By a quick glance at the recent conference title tilts, you can see that it is preferable to play at home. Just once in the last 11 playoff seasons have both road teams emerged victorious. However, after last year’s ATS sweep, road teams are on an 8-6 ATS run in the last seven years.
Using methodologies similar to those of the past two weeks, here are some of the notable trends and systems that have developed in recent conference championship game action. I will apply this year’s matchups (Washington-Philadelphia and Buffalo-Kansas City) to the key info when applicable.
General Conference Championship Playoff ATS Trends
· The outright winner has covered the point spread in all but seven of the last 46 (84.8%) conference championship playoff games. The most recent team not to do that was a year ago when San Francisco (-7.5) emerged 34-31 over Detroit after a late Lions score secured the ATS win. If you recall, this is just a tic below the current wild card rate by outright winners but well above the divisional round rate.
· Hosts are on a 17-5 SU and 13-9 ATS (65%) run in conference championship play over the last 11 years, but road teams are 8-6 ATS in the last 14 games.
· There have been 10 road favorites in the last 26 years of the conference championship playoffs, and those teams are 6-4 SU and 5-4-1 ATS. Most recently, Minnesota lost in 2018 to Philadelphia, 38-7 as a 3-point favorite. Neither game will feature a road favorite in 2024, barring any late-line action toward Buffalo.
· Beware of large home favorites in the conference championship round, at least in terms of laying the points, as those closing as 7-point favorites or more are 13-6 SU but just 6-13 ATS (31.6%) since 1999.
· Conversely, hosts favored by less than 7 points are 17-6 SU and 15-8 ATS (65.2%) in their last 23 tries. However, Baltimore (-4.5) did lose outright to the Chiefs in 2024.
· Teams that won by 7 points or less in the divisional round are just 4-17 SU and 9-12 ATS (42.9%) in their last 21 road conference title game appearances, although Kansas City did turn back that trend last year. For 2025, this angle will apply to Buffalo on Sunday.
· In intra-divisional conference championship games of this playoff round, the favorites are on a 5-1 SU and 3-3 ATS (50%) surge. This will apply to the Eagles-Commanders contest for Sunday, with Philly the favorite.
· Home teams are 14-4 SU and 11-7 ATS (61.1%) in the last 18 AFC clashes and 11-6 SU and 7-10 ATS (41.2%) in their last 17 NFC tilts.
· Of the teams in the AFC and NFC Championship contests this year, Philadelphia is making its eighth conference title game appearance since 2002 and owns a 3-4 SU and 4-3 ATS record in the prior seven. Washington has not played in the game since 1992, when it clobbered Detroit 41-10 as Redskins. Buffalo famously won the AFC title in four straight seasons from 1990-93 but has only been back to the conference title game once since, losing to this same Chiefs team at Arrowhead in 2021, 38-24. Kansas City is in for an absurd seventh straight year and looking for a fifth AFC crown, having gone 4-2 SU and ATS. They played five different teams during that span.
·Since the 2004 season, playoff experience has meant a great deal to championship hosts. In fact, home teams that were in the playoffs the prior year are on a 24-8 SU and 18-14 ATS (56.3%) run, including 9-2 SU and 6-5 ATS (81.8%) versus teams that weren’t in the playoffs the prior season. Both AFC teams were in the 2024 playoffs, as was Philadelphia. Washington is in its first playoffs since 2021.
Conference Championship Trends by Seed Number
· #1-seeds have been the host teams in 47 of the last 64 conference championship games and have gone 32-15 SU and 24-23 ATS (51.1%) in those games. They are just 5-4 SU and 4-5 ATS since ’19 however. The Chiefs are a #1 seed for this Sunday.
· #2 seeds hosting conference championship games are just 4-7 SU and 4-6-1 ATS (40%) since 1997, with Kansas City being the most recent victim, losing outright to the Bengals in 2022. Philadelphia will look to turn this trend around on Sunday.
· Only three teams that were not #1 or #2 seeds have hosted conference championship games in the last 22 years, and all three won outright while going 2-1 ATS. Indianapolis did so in the AFC in 2007, Arizona followed that up two years later for the NFC, and the Rams won without covering in 2022.
· Wildcard teams, or those seeded #5-#7, have gone just 4-10 SU and 6-8 ATS (42.9%) dating back to 1996 in the conference title games, including just 2-7 SU and 3-6 ATS the last 13 seasons.
· Matchups pitting a #1 seed versus a #2 seed in the conference championship games have trended Over the total at a 13-5-1 (72.2%) rate since ’02. This will apply to the Chiefs-Bills contest.
· #1 seeds are on a 9-2 SU and 7-4 ATS (63.6%) surge in conference championship games when hosting any team worse than a #2 seed.
Conference Championship Trends Regarding Totals
· Overall, since 1993, Over the total is 36-27-1 (57.1%) in the conference championship playoff games. However, there has been a stark difference when you consider conference breakdown lately, as the last 13 AFC games are 9-4 Under (69.2%) while NFC contests are on a 15-7-1 Over (68.2%) surge.
· Breaking down the totals for this weekend’s games based upon ranges, totals less than 45 are on a 10-4-1 Over run, totals in the 45-49.5 range are on a 3-0 Under surge, 8-5 Under in the last 13. The last 12 games with totals in the 50s have seen a 6/6 split. Both totals for this weekend were at 47.5 as of Wednesday.
· The last 20 times that a home team has won and covered the point spread in the conference title games, that game has also gone Over the total at a 14-6 (70%) rate. The last 14 times that a road team covered the point spread in conference title action, Under the total is 9-5 (64.3%). This correlation is quite similar to that of the divisional round. As I indicated last week, in essence, home teams cover with offense, and road teams cover with defense.
Following the Line/Total Moves
In last week’s article, I pointed out that bettors were, in fact, “sharp” when it comes to divisional round games. That pattern continues for the conference championship round. Following the line moves throughout the week, heading up to the big games would have netted you a record of 18-9 ATS (72%) since 2005. However, last year, bettors backed both home teams and lost each ATS. As of Wednesday, bettors were behind Philadelphia, moving the Eagles from -4.5 opening line favorites to -6. Be sure to follow the moves throughout the rest of the week up until kickoff.
Bettors have also done fairly well with totals recently as well, going 17-9 (65.4%) when moving the totals in the last 26 conference championship games, including 2-0 in 2024. There have been half-point moves downward in both games for Sunday since opening, indicating bettors are preferring the Unders.
Stats Generated in Conference Championship Playoff Games
· In each successive round so far, it has taken more and more points by the home team to somewhat “ensure” victory, both outright and ATS. That pattern continues for the conference championship round, as the benchmark for success increases to 30 points. Kansas City became the first home team in recent memory to lose with this in 2019, but still, hosts that score 30 points or more are on a 17-1 SU and 15-3 ATS (83.3%) surge. Those that don’t reach the 30-point mark are 14-14 SU and 8-20 ATS (28.6%) since 2002.
· The magic point total for road teams in conference championship playoff action is even more definitive, however, and that benchmark has proven to be 20 points. Visitors scoring 20 points or more are 17-14 SU and 22-8-1 ATS (73.3%) when they reach that mark since 1998. When scoring less than 20 points, the record of the road teams has dropped dramatically to 3-24 SU and 7-20 ATS (25.9%) since 1995. Kansas City’s 17-10 road win at Baltimore last year was one of those outright wins, however.
· Teams that gained more first downs in their respective conference championship games are 19-8 SU and 17-10 ATS (63%) over the last 15 years in those games. There have been three first-down ties, including the 2019 NFC game. You will see later that big plays prove more important than first-down volume.
· Teams that controlled the time of possession are on a 31-11 SU and 32-10 ATS (76.2%) run in the conference championship playoffs since 2003. This is obviously a critical factor.
· Conference championship playoff teams that gained more yards rushing in those games are 30-12 SU and 31-11 ATS (73.8%) over the last 21 seasons. Strangely, at the same time, teams that rush for more yards per attempt in a conference championship playoff game are just 17-25 SU and 20-22 ATS (47.6%) in that same span.
· Putting up big passing numbers in conference championship playoff games has also proven a key ingredient to success since those teams are 29-15 SU and 30-14 ATS (68.1%) since 2002. Even better, teams that gained more yards per pass attempt in a conference championship playoff game are 32-12 SU and 31-13 ATS (70.4%) during that same stretch.
·Going back to 2003, teams that turn the ball over fewer times in a conference championship are on an impressive 32-4 ATS (88.9%) run, although most recently, the Bucs did survive three Tom Brady interception throws in upsetting Green Bay in 2021.
Regular Season Team Won-Lost Record Trends
· There have proven to be only minimal differences when it comes to the success rates of conference championship teams based upon their regular season records or the comparison between their record and their opponent’s. For instance, here are the records of home teams broken up by regular season wins: Home teams that won 14 or more games in the regular season were 9-1 SU and 7-3 ATS, home teams with 12 or 13 regular season wins were 19-13 SU and 13-19 ATS (40.6%), and hosts that won 11 or fewer games were 3-1 SU and ATS. The regular season win totals for this year were both elite, 14 for Philadelphia and 15 for Kansas City.
· Road teams that won 12 or more games in the regular season are 3-15 SU and 7-11 ATS (38.9%) in their last 18 conference title games, road teams with 11 regular season wins were slightly better at 7-9 SU and 9-7 ATS (56.3%) in that same span, and ironically, those visitors that won the fewest games, 10 or less, were nearly as good outright at 5-7 SU and 7-5 ATS (58.3%). The Commanders won 12 games and Bills 13 in the regular season.
· Home teams that won at least two more games during the regular season than their conference championship playoff opponents are only 12-8 SU and 8-12 ATS (40%) since 2002. This trend applies to both the NFC and AFC contests on Sunday.
· When just one regular season win separated two conference championship playoff opponents, or the records were equal, the home teams are 16-4 SU and 13-7 ATS (65%) over the last 16 seasons.
Regular Season Team Offensive Statistics Trends
· Teams that scored more points per game during the regular season are on a 23-11 SU and 18-16 ATS (56.3%) run over the last 16 conference championship playoff seasons but just 2-6 ATS in last eight. For the first time in at least 23 years, both ’25 edges here belong to the road teams.
· The ability to run the football has been much overrated when it comes to conference championship success. Teams who averaged more rushing yards per game are 20-26 SU and 21-25 ATS (45.7%) since 2002. However, these teams are currently on a 13-5 ATS (72.2%) surge. Similarly, those that averaged more yards per rush are just 13-19 SU and 15-17 ATS (46.9%) over the last 16 seasons. Philadelphia and Washington split the edges in the NFC, while Buffalo holds both for the AFC.
· Passing yardage has meant much more than rushing yardage in terms of conference championship playoff success, with teams owning an edge in total offensive passing yardage, going 30-14 SU and 27-17 ATS (61.3%) over the last 22 seasons in this playoff round. More efficient passing yards per attempt teams were a bit worse at 26-18 SU and 23-21 ATS (52.3%). This latter category was clearly more important in earlier rounds. Again, Philadelphia and Washington split the edges in the NFC, while Buffalo holds both for the AFC.
· Teams that generated more yardage overall offensively in the regular season owe a slight edge when it comes to conference championship playoff success, going 27-15 SU and 22-20 ATS (52.4%) over the last 21 seasons. Recently, there has been a 10-6 ATS edge as well. The Commanders and Bills will try to extend this trend in 2024.
· The offensive yards per play statistic has also proven somewhat important, as teams with an edge in that offensive category are 26-12 SU and 21-17 ATS (55.2%) over the last 19 years on championship Sunday. There has been a 10-5-1 ATS edge recently. Again, count the Commanders and Bills as the beneficiaries should this statistical trend continue.
· Offensive yards per point has not proven to be an effective statistical indicator, as teams who have averaged fewer yards per point are just 21-17 SU and 15-23 ATS (39.5%) in the conference championship playoff round since 2005.
· The offensive turnovers statistic provides the handicapper very little edge since teams that turned the ball over fewer times in the regular season than their opponent are only 21-18 SU and 19-20 ATS (48.7%) since 2004 in conference championship games. However, these teams are on a 12-7-1 ATS run in the last 10 seasons, so note that while the NFC teams shared the same giveaways ranking, the Bills were tied for #1 in the NFL in this stat.
· Teams that converted third down opportunities more efficiently in the regular season are 19-13 SU and 17-15 ATS (53.1%) in the last 32 conference championship games.
Regular Season Team Defensive Statistics Trends
· Teams that allowed fewer points per game during the regular season are 16-13 SU and 17-12 ATS (58.6%), dating back to 2010 in conference championship games, providing what would be a nice edge to handicappers. However, these teams are on a four-game ATS losing skid. Philadelphia and Kansas City hold edges over their counterparts in this key statistical area.
· Defensive rushing yards have been somewhat insignificant when it comes to handicapping conference championship action, exactly .500 ATS over the last 36 games, as has yards per rush defense, as teams with an edge in that stat are 22-22 SU and 25-19 ATS (56.8%) since 2003, and 11-7 ATS in the last 18. Edges in the latter: Philadelphia and Kansas City.
· Conference championship playoff teams with an edge in defensive passing yardage allowed over their opponent are 27-17 SU and 28-16 ATS (63.6%) over the last 22 seasons in this round. Teams with the edge in defensive pass efficiency share the same 27-17 SU and 28-16 ATS mark. Philadelphia holds both edges and was #1 in the NFL in defensive PYA. Kansas City holds both AFC edges.
· Teams that allowed less yardage overall defensively are 26-18 SU and 27-17 ATS (61.4%) in the AFC and NFC title games since 2003, while those that held an edge in yards allowed per play share the same 26-18 SU and 27-15 ATS record. Advantages to Philly and KC.
· Defensive yards per point should be given at least some consideration for the conference championship Sunday since teams with an edge there are 12-14 SU and 8-18 ATS (30.8%) in the last 13 seasons of this round, and 10-22 ATS (31.3%) over the last 32 games. Fading these teams seems to be a sound strategy. If curious, Philadelphia and Kansas City were the better teams in Defensive YPPT in each conference.
· If you recall, the divisional round trend concerning teams forcing turnovers was very distinctive. Not the same for this weekend, as teams that had more takeaways in the regular season than their opponent are just 22-21 SU and 21-22 ATS (48.8%) since 2002 in conference championship play.
· Teams that stopped third down opportunities more efficiently in the regular season are on a mediocre 19-25 SU and 20-24 ATS (45.4%) run in the last 44 conference championship games.
Summary
The first two rounds of the NFL playoffs have belonged to the home teams, as they have only lost once on each weekend. Make no mistake, especially in the expanded playoff era with just the top seed getting a bye. Teams work hard to earn the right to host these games. That said, winning these games puts teams on the ultimate football stage. There is a lot of pressure that comes with that. There is no shortage of motivation on either side.
Playing the statistical advantages of teams has paid off for bettors somewhat, and the stats that have proven to mean more have been from passing offense and overall defense.
Sometimes, we tend to overcomplicate things at this time of year as we look for the golden nugget. If you’re looking for some questions to ask yourself to start handicapping these games, go with these:
Is the host playoff team experienced?
Where is the money going?
Which team has the better quarterback?
Which team is playing better RIGHT NOW?
Which team gets after the opposing quarterback better?
If the playoffs so far have demonstrated anything, it’s that the answers to these questions are key.
You can find my more detailed thoughts on both games in a separate Best Bets article to be published on VSiN in the next day or two. Of course, that will come after we release our much-anticipated VFL Analytics Report for the championship tilts.
Whatever method you use to eventually decide your plays for this weekend, good luck, and we’ll see you back in the next couple of weeks as we uncover all of the key betting angles on the Super Bowl!
For more NFL Conference Championship analysis, visit the NFL Conference Championship betting hub, exclusively on VSiN.