NFL Conference Championship Predictions and Best Bets from Matt Youmans:

In VSiN’s preseason betting guide, 21 staff members at the network took shots at predicting the NFL’s division winners, playoff teams and Super Bowl matchup. I was one of three handicappers to pick a Chiefs-Eagles matchup in the title game. Kansas City and Philadelphia are the favorites going into this weekend’s AFC and NFC conference championship games, and here’s how I analyze the games with my best bets:

 

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Washington Commanders at Philadelphia Eagles (-6)

Three of the league’s final four teams are not a surprise. Rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels and the Commanders represent Cinderella. I have been a fan of Daniels since 2019, when he helped Arizona State to an upset win at Michigan State. He made tremendous strides at LSU in 2022 and 2023 under coach Brian Kelly. In two years with the Tigers, Daniels totaled 78 touchdowns (57 passing, 21 rushing) with only seven interceptions. I was convinced Daniels was the best quarterback in his draft class, and Daniels was lucky that the Bears were convinced it was USC’s Caleb Williams. Daniels has flourished with Kliff Kingsbury as his offensive coordinator in Washington. In postseason victories at Tampa Bay and Detroit, Daniels totaled 304 and 350 total yards, respectively, while passing for four touchdowns without a turnover. He’s fearless and mature enough to win another playoff game on the road. However, the Buccaneers and Lions had defensive deficiencies and each unit pales in comparison to this Philadelphia defense. To make matters more difficult, the Commanders lost one of their top linemen, right guard Sam Cosmi, to a knee injury last week, so protecting Daniels against the Eagles’ front seven will be challenging.

I also have been a fan of Philadelphia quarterback Jalen Hurts, who led the Eagles to the Super Bowl two years ago before regressing some in 2023 and 2024. Hurts’ decline has had something to do with injuries, and he’s playing through a knee injury that will limit his mobility this week. Saquon Barkley, who has become the league’s most dynamic running back, is likely to be the difference-maker in this matchup. Barkley has 324 rushing yards in the two playoff games. In the two regular-season meetings with Washington, Barkley averaged 27.5 carries and 148 yards with two touchdowns in each game. Barkley can handle a heavy workload, and he will need to if Hurts continues to struggle with his vertical passing. Hurts passed for only 131 and 128 yards in the two playoff games.

The Washington defense allowed 521 yards and 7.7 yards per play to the Lions, yet did force four turnovers from Detroit quarterback Jared Goff. If Hurts turns it over once or twice, the Commanders’ chances of winning will improve, but that’s rather obvious. What’s interesting is the rookie quarterback, Daniels, has been better at ball security than the veteran Hurts. The Philadelphia defense, minus injured linebacker Nakobe Dean, showed some cracks in a 28-22 victory over the Rams, who rushed for 111 yards and got 324 yards passing from Matthew Stafford. When the Commanders beat the Eagles 36-33 in Washington in Week 16, Daniels totaled 339 yards (258 passing, 81 rushing) and threw for five touchdowns. Hurts left that game early with a head injury.

In August, I bet two teams to win the Super Bowl. One bet (Jets 30-1) has long been dead and the other (Eagles 16-1) is alive and well. The Philadelphia future is essentially my play on this game. Daniels is in a tough spot, making his third consecutive road start and doing it against one of the league’s top defenses. When these teams met in Philadelphia in Week 11, the Commanders led 10-6 early in the fourth quarter before two Barkley touchdowns propelled the Eagles to a 26-18 win. Philadelphia will likely find ways to pull this out, using its defense and Barkley’s running to wear down the underdog in the second half. Still, Daniels is dangerous, and the Commanders are full of confidence, so it’s doubtful this will be a blowout.

Conference Championship Best Bet: Commanders +12/Bills +8 on a 6-point teaser

Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs (-2)

Is it finally time for Bills quarterback Josh Allen to get over the hump in the postseason, where he’s 0-3 against the Chiefs? Allen was good enough and often great in those losses, but Buffalo suffered from various defensive, special teams and coaching failures. Allen had a better regular season than Kansas City quarterback Patrick Mahomes, but Mahomes ranks second to none (or second to only the retired Tom Brady) in high-stakes games. Plus, Mahomes has the stronger supporting cast in all areas. Allen was the better man in the duel with Mahomes in Buffalo in Week 11. Allen passed for 262 yards and a touchdown and ran for 55 yards and a touchdown in a 30-21 win, but that meeting means nothing now.

Kansas City’s offense has been enigmatic, scoring 30 points in only two games all season. Still, that offense is operating at full strength now. Mahomes can lean on tight end Travis Kelce, wideouts Xavier Worthy, Hollywood Brown and DeAndre Hopkins and running backs Kareem Hunt and Isiah Pacheco. In a 23-14 victory over the Texans last week, neither Brown nor Hopkins had a reception. Kelce was targeted eight times and had seven receptions for 117 yards, including a 49-yard catch and run in which he was mysteriously left all alone in the middle of the field.

Buffalo’s defensive game plan should focus on bracketing Kelce in coverage, but all opponents know that and few actually execute it. In his past 14 playoff games, Kelce never had fewer than 71 receiving yards and averaged 99 yards in those games, so why not bet Kelce Over 67.5 receiving yards against the Bills? Allen also has weapons, including running back James Cook, tight ends Dalton Kincaid and Dawson Knox and receiver Khalil Shakir. Allen has a tougher assignment because he’s faced with a Chris Jones-led defensive front that sacked Houston’s C.J. Stroud eight times. Allen will hold nothing back. He averaged nine rushing attempts in the two playoff games and probably will need to run it even more against the Chiefs, so I’ll bet Allen Over 9.5 carries (-105).

I see no edge to betting the Bills +2 pregame. This will be a back-and-forth duel with the quarterbacks trading shots, so for those who like the underdog, it’s likely there will be chances in live betting to grab +3 or better with Buffalo. The Chiefs are 11-0 in one-score games this season, winning five times by three points or fewer, and playing with fire usually leads to getting burned. While it’s tempting to predict the end to Kansas City’s pursuit of a Super Bowl three-peat, that seems to be wishful thinking from the haters, and I need to see it to believe it. I can more easily envision the Chiefs winning another close call and dealing the Bills another heartbreaker.

Conference Championship Best Bets: Chiefs -130; and Commanders +12/Bills +8 on a 6-point teaser

For more NFL Conference Championship analysis, visit the NFL Conference Championship betting hub, exclusively on VSiN.

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