NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year 2025 Odds, History, and Predictions

NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year 2025:

Fourteen offensive players went off the board in the first round of the 2024 NFL Draft before the first defensive player was taken. It was an historic first round in a lot of ways…and also a one-year outlier. Three of the top five picks in the 2025 NFL Draft were defenders and 15 of the 32 first-round selections overall.

Players who get after the quarterback or have the ability to intercept passes are generally the ones to highlight here. Much like the Offensive Rookie of the Year, where running backs are likely to be few and far between going forward after a lot of success in the early-to-mid 2000s and 2010s, this is now a pass-driven award, so linebackers and tackle machines are unlikely to get the benefit of the doubt.

Four of the last five winners have been pass rushers. The last true linebacker to win was Shaquille (formerly Darius) Leonard in 2018. The last one before that was Luke Kuechly in 2012. I guess “true” depends on your definition of guys like Jared Verse and Will Anderson.

Outliers are definitely a possibility, but let’s look at the last 10 Defensive Rookie of the Year winners and attempt to get a baseline for the stats and the circumstances that are required to be in the running.

Defensive Rookie of the Year Winners

Players: Jared Verse, Will Anderson, Sauce Gardner, Micah Parsons, Chase Young, Nick Bosa, Shaquille Leonard, Marshon Lattimore, Joey Bosa, Marcus Peters

By Draft Position (Round.Pick): 1.19; 1.3; 1.4; 1.12; 1.2; 1.2; 2.36 (Leonard); 1.11; 1.3; 1.18

Nine of the last 10 winners have been top-20 picks in the draft. We only had four players who fit that mold from the 2024 NFL Draft and Verse was one of them, so the trend continued. This year, we have nine, including Travis Hunter, Abdul Carter, and Mason Graham as top-five picks.

First-place votes (L5 years): 36 (Verse); 16 (Anderson, runner-up Jalen Carter and third-place finisher Kobie Turner had 14); 46 (Gardner); 50 (Parsons); 42.5 (Young)

Anderson’s win was clearly the most contested in the last several years and the closest since 2013 when Sheldon Richardson had 23 first-place votes to Kiko Alonso’s 19.

Also, team success isn’t necessarily a prerequisite, but eight of the 10 teams made the playoffs. Four of the last five have been on division champions. You have to make plays and make noteworthy plays for noteworthy teams more often than not.

Stats of the Winners

Jared Verse (2024)
Verse had 66 combined tackles, 11 tackles for loss, 18 QB Hits, and 4.5 sacks. He added a couple fumble recoveries. He actually won the award running away with 36 of the 49 first-place votes, as Quinyon Mitchell was the only other player with more than one first-place vote.

Will Anderson (2023)
Anderson had 45 combined tackles, 22 QB hits, and seven sacks. He didn’t have any interceptions and only one pass defended, hence the very small margin of victory. For reference, Carter had six sacks and Turner actually had nine.

Sauce Gardner (2022)
The Cincinnati product led the league with 20 pass breakups and also had a couple of interceptions. He had 75 combined tackles. Not only was he the DROY, but he was also a Pro Bowler and even finished eighth in the Defensive Player of the Year voting.

Micah Parsons (2021)
Parsons racked up 13 sacks and 84 combined tackles in his rookie year, which set him on a Hall of Fame trajectory. He has 40.5 sacks through three seasons and has finished in the top three in the Defensive Player of the Year voting every year, including a runner-up vote in 2021. Parsons had 30 QB hits that year and 20 tackles for loss.

Chase Young (2020)
Young played 15 games for the Washington Football Team with 7.5 sacks, 44 tackles, 10 TFL, and a touchdown on a fumble recovery. He very comfortably won the award with only three others getting votes, none of whom had more than three sacks.

Nick Bosa (2019)
Bosa had nine sacks, 47 tackles, 25 QB hits, and 16 TFL during his DROY season. He also had an interception and a couple of pass breakups. Even though both Maxx Crosby and Josh Allen had more sacks, Bosa still won the award comfortably. He would go on to win Defensive Player of the Year in 2022.

Darius Leonard (2018)
Now going by Shaquille, Leonard led the NFL with 163 tackles in 2018. He also had seven sacks, picked off two passes, had four fumble recoveries, and broke up eight passes. It was truly an incredible season full of stat filling for Leonard. Amazingly, though, he only got 29 first-place votes, as Derwin James had 20.

Marshon Lattimore (2017)
The Texans swept the OROY/DROY board in 2023, but the Saints did it back in 2017 with Lattimore and Kamara. Lattimore only played 13 games, but had 18 pass breakups and five interceptions. His 18 PD are one off of his career record set in 2021, but his five INT are still a career-best. He easily won the award over Tre’Davious White, who has had quite the NFL career himself.

Joey Bosa (2016)
The third overall pick had 10.5 sacks and 41 tackles over just 12 games in his rookie campaign. Bosa was tied for 13th in sacks overall and did not really have a challenger for the award. He got 37 first-place votes. Jalen Ramsey (10) and Deion Jones (3) were the others to get a nod.

Marcus Peters (2015)
The Washington product had an insane debut season. He had 26 pass breakups to lead the NFL and also led the league with eight interceptions and 280 return yards. He also had two touchdowns and actually has seven pick-sixes in his career. Incredibly, five voters didn’t think he was the clear DROY. It was one of the best rookie seasons for a corner in recent memory.

What does this mean for 2025? Pass rushers and defensive backs are absolutely the places to look. History would also suggest that the higher the draft pick, the better that player’s chances of living up to the hype and potential as a rookie.

Now, let’s turn it over to our VSiN hosts and contributors for their best bets in the Defensive Rookie of the Year market.

Adam Burke

Donovan Ezeiruaku (22-1)

This could be a really great situation for Ezeiruaku. There are a lot of eyes and a lot of headlines about the ongoing contract impasse between Micah Parsons and the Cowboys. While it is highly, highly, highly unlikely that Parsons plays for another team on his next contract, at least there could be a discussion and a little bit of buzz for Ezeiruaku if he puts up numbers.

Parsons is going to command a ton of attention from opposing schemes and blockers. Ezeiruaku, who had 16.5 sacks and was second in the nation at Boston College last season, has the chance to really benefit. While he doesn’t exactly fit the mold given his second-round draft position, the fit is really strong here.

Furthermore, Matt Eberflus is now the defensive coordinator for the Cowboys and Shaquille Leonard won the Defensive Rookie of the Year in 2018 on his watch. I don’t think Ezeiruaku will become the tackle machine (163) that Leonard was, but double-digit sacks and a little bit of notoriety could have him in the mix.

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Jensen Lewis

Mason Graham 14/1

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Sean Green

Shemar Stewart (21/1)

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Will Hill

Shemar Stewart