NFL Divisional Round Best Bets from Will Hill:

Here are my NFL Divisional Round best bets:

 

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Houston Texans vs. Kansas City Chiefs Under 41.5

A bit of a tricky handicap here, as the unusually long layoff for the Chiefs is a difficult factor to project. It’s been nearly a month since they played a game they cared about, as this will be the ultimate rest vs rust test case. I like the Under more than anything else, as the Texans have a very good defense, but also a poor offensive line, as well as a lack of weapons. The Chiefs will be the healthiest they’ve been in quite some time on defense. I think points are hard to come by in this one.

Washington Commanders/Detroit Lions Under 5.5 Punts +120 (DK)

With a sky-high total, this is an alternative way to bet on both offenses to have success without actually needing the points to be scored. The Lions are elite on offense, draw a shaky Commanders defense, and are ultra-aggressive when it comes to fourth down decision-making. The Commanders showed a similar willingness to gamble last week vs the Buccaneers, and one would think facing an even better offense this week will make them even more aggressive. It’s hard to see 6+ punts with the nature of these two coaches.

Lamar Jackson Over 53.5 Rushing Yards 

Going back to the same prop I took last week for similar reasons. Zay Flowers, Ravens’ leading receiver, is once again unlikely to play. With his expected absence, the Ravens lack quality targets for Lamar Jackson to throw to, and may again look to replace Flowers’ production with more Jackson runs. Last week, without Flowers, Jackson carried 15 times for 81 yards against a solid Steelers defense that has traditionally had success defending running quarterbacks. When the Ravens beat the Bills 35-10 in Week 4, Derrick Henry ran wild, gaining 199 yards and 8.3 yards per carry, so it’s possible selling out to stop Henry is the approach for the Bills, giving Jackson even more room to run. Look for Jackson to have another big day on the ground.

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