NFL Divisional Round Betting Trends:
Last week, I started my annual NFL playoff series of looking at the trends of recent years by digging into the Wild Card round. I revealed a number of systems and methodologies that had been very successful in recent years, angles on outright winners, line-range trends, and key stats that typically lead to success in that round. I also had another overall playoff trends and systems article that focused on other statistical angles, playoff droughts, first-time quarterbacks and coaches, as well as rematches and plenty more. It all worked somewhat well for me in that I won on seven of my 12 best bets for the week. This week, I will be moving on to the divisional round. The six winners of last weekend join #1 seeds Seattle and Denver in the theoretical Elite Eight, looking to take another huge step towards the Super Bowl. I encourage you to also look back at the overall playoff article from last week, plus take in this week’s exclusive VSiN NFL Analytics Report to make sure you are ready for this weekend.
As we analyze the remaining teams, I should note that in my NFL Shared Traits from past champions piece I also released last week, my top teams from both conferences, LA Rams and New England, both advanced and are still alive for the SB title. Of course, my final NFL Strength Rating Update post-week 18 showed that the Rams and Seahawks tied atop the NFC, with the Patriots as the top AFC team. That said, will being off last week help or hurt the Seahawks? Will a near-miss upset loss doom the Rams? Three years ago, both top seeds, Green Bay and Tennessee, looked rusty in their opening playoff games and were quickly bounced. Since then, all top seeds won five of their six divisional round games, with the Lions being a surprising upset victim last year. I’ll look at that scenario and a lot more in this piece.
In 2022, for the first time since 2009, road teams took the divisional round by winning three of the four contests. Hosts got it back the next two years by going 6-2 SU and 4-4 ATS. Last year, they won three of four games outright but were just 1-3 ATS. Notably, underdogs were 4-0 ATS last year. What does all of that tell us about the prospects for this weekend’s games? Unfortunately, for the most part, it details a process of being unable to trust patterns and to focus more closely on the specific matchups.
One important point of note regarding the lines for the games. This round typically sees the largest favorites of any playoff round, and 2017 marked the only time since 2009 when fewer than two teams were favored by at least a TD. That particular season, I speculated at the time that perhaps it signaled a couple of upsets coming. Pittsburgh and Green Bay both pulled those upsets. In 2022, again, I noted in this piece that none of the four teams were favored by more than 5.5 points, which perhaps signaled a greater potential for upsets. That turned out to be the most prophetic words I shared, as road teams/underdogs went 3-1. For 2025, we again had two hosts playing as favorites of more than a TD, and two not. As I mentioned, the dogs were 4-0 ATS. For 2026, if more than 7 points is the benchmark line for expected “blowout games”, then all four of the upcoming contests are expected to be competitive, as Seattle -7 is the current largest point spread.
Recent years have produced some wild action in this round. The 2019 season’s most exciting game saw Kansas City rally from a 24-0 deficit to beat Houston 51-31, and the Chiefs would eventually win a Super Bowl title. Surely, you remember the 45-42 Jacksonville win at Pittsburgh in 2018, or the Minnesota Miracle that same season. Just two years ago, we witnessed a game dubbed one of the greatest playoff games in history, where the Chiefs outlasted Buffalo 42-36 in an epic overtime shootout, a game that eventually ended up forcing postseason overtime rules changes, which we are now under. Those two AFC powers played the most captivating game of the 2024 divisional round, too, with the Chiefs winning on the road 27-24. The Bills and Ravens produced another classic in 2025, a 2-point decision won by the home dog Bills, but not until a failed 2-point conversion attempt by Baltimore in the final minute. Not surprisingly, the Bills could get locked up in another thrilling finish, as they play as a 1.5-point dog at Denver. Can the fans of Buffalo take yet another pulse-raising finish on Saturday?
So, let’s dig through the NFL Divisional Playoff log of recent seasons to see if we can’t uncover some trends and systems that we can apply when handicapping this weekend’s games.
General Divisional Playoff ATS Trends
· The outright winner owns a 39-14-1 ATS (73.6%) mark in the last 54 divisional playoff games. This is actually well below the regular-season standards. If you recall, in last week’s Wild Card article, outright winners were on a much stronger 87.3% ATS run and proceeded to go 5-1 ATS last weekend. The high volume of lofty point spreads in the divisional round obviously contributes to this.
· Since 2009, home teams have been on a convincing run of 46-18 SU but are just 31-32-1 ATS (49.2%) in the divisional round. They are also just 8-12 ATS in the L5 years, de-emphasizing not only home-field advantage but also the extra week of rest and health that come with teams securing a bye in the Wild Card round. Even still, if you go back through each year since 2012, a span of 14 playoff seasons, there have only been two years in which home teams did not win at least three of the four games. If three hosts win in 2026 once again, which will they be?
· There have only been five road favorites in the last 29 years of the divisional playoffs, and San Francisco was the first to win in that scenario in 2014, beating Carolina 23-10. The other four lost outright and ATS, including Baltimore last season at Buffalo. The Rams are 3.5-point favorites at Chicago for Sunday and almost assuredly will end as road chalk.
· Point spreads have proven to be a strong giveaway as to which team should win in divisional playoff games, as home favorites of 5.5-points or less (or underdog) are just 17-15 SU and 13-19 ATS (40.6%) since 2006, while those laying 6 points or more are 34-13 SU and 21-25-1 ATS (45.7%) in that same span. That’s a difference of almost 20% outright and 5% against the point spread. Only Seattle meets the high line criteria for hosts this weekend as of Wednesday.
· Double-digit home favorites in the divisional round are on an 8-1 SU and 6-2 ATS (75%) surge. Tennessee’s upset of Baltimore in 2019 is the only outright loss in that group.
· Road teams have proven to be worthy bets in the divisional round when underdogs in the +3.5 to +9.5 range, going 29-17-1 ATS (63%) in the L47 tries (15-32 SU). San Francisco (+7) will look to extend this point spread angle in 2026.
· In intra-divisional games of this playoff round, the road teams are on a 4-2 SU and ATS surge. However, host Philadelphia last clobbered the Giants 38-7 in 2023. The 49ers-Seahawks game is an all NFC West clash.
· Here are the divisional round records since 2002 for the teams playing this weekend. Note that only three of them, the Bills, Texans, and Rams reached this level last season:
Buffalo: 2-3 SU and ATS
Denver: 3-3 SU and 1-4-1 ATS
San Francisco: 7-1 SU and 6-2 ATS
Seattle: 3-7 SU and 4-6 ATS but 3-0 SU at home
Houston: 0-6 SU and 2-4 ATS
New England: 13-2 SU and 9-5-1 ATS incl. 12-1 SU at home
LA Rams: 2-2 SU and 3-1 ATS
Chicago: 2-2 SU and 1-3 ATS
· There has been a significant performance difference in home/road dichotomy based on the day of the weekend the Divisional Playoff game has been played on. On Saturdays, home teams have gone 26-6 SU and 20-12 ATS (62.5%) over the last 16 seasons. However, they were 0-2 ATS in 2025. On Sundays, road teams have performed much better, going 18-22 SU and 26-13-1 ATS (66.7%) since ’06! Last weekend’s Wild Card article showed similar trends and both of this year’s Saturday WC home teams won ATS, while the Sunday WC hosts were 1-2 SU and ATS.
· In terms of AFC/NFC breakdown, AFC home teams are 23-10 SU and 16-16-1 ATS (50%) in the L33, while NFC hosts are 28-12 SU and 18-22 ATS (45%) since 2006 in this playoff round.
· In terms of Wild Card teams’ potential success in the divisional round, note that 19 of the last 27 Wild Card teams to cover the spread in divisional games played well defensively in the prior game, allowing 20 points or less. This doesn’t count games where these teams played one another. For this weekend, only San Francisco applies, since Houston and New England will be matched up.
· With two of last weekend’s Wild Card winners topping the 30-point mark, it should be noted that 10 of the last 15 teams that scored 31 points or more in their Wild Card wins covered their divisional point spreads. Unfortunately, this only includes the Rams and Bears for 2026, but they will face one another on Sunday.
· Of the last 37 teams that pulled off road wins in the wildcard round to advance to this weekend, 22 of them have covered the point spread (61.1% with one push) and 13 have won a second straight road game outright. The Bills, 49ers, Texans, and Rams, will all be seeking a second straight road win this weekend. Could we be looking at a road-dominant 2026 divisional round, at least from an ATS perspective?
Divisional Trends by New/Returning Playoff Team
· When both teams in a divisional round playoff matchup were not in the playoffs the prior season, as was the case most recently in the Houston-Baltimore and Tampa Bay-Detroit matchups of 2024, home teams are 6-1 SU and 4-3 ATS since 2005, having gone Over the total 5-1-1 as well. In 2025, there were no such matchups. For 2026, the San Francisco at Seattle matchup fits the bill.
· Returning playoff teams from the prior season playing as hosts in the divisional round to teams that weren’t in the playoffs the prior year are 13-11 SU but just 7-17 ATS (29.2%) in their last 24 when playing as single-digit favorites. There are no such games for 2026.
· In divisional playoff games, when both teams were in the playoffs the prior season, hosts are 21-7 SU and 14-13-1 ATS (51.9%) when favored by 5.5 points or more. There are no such games, only due to the low point spread in the Buffalo-Denver contest.
· In 2024, Detroit last played as a non-returning playoff team hosting a returning playoff team in the divisional round. Those teams are now on a 10-4 SU and 9-5 ATS run since 2008. This situation is in play for the Texans-Patriots contest.
Divisional Trends by Seed Number
· Teams fight all season long to half home-field advantage throughout their conference playoffs, however, that advantage has not lasted long, as #1 seeds are 30-14 SU but just 15-28-1 ATS (34.9%) dating back to 2004.
· Making matters worse for the #1 seeds is their record versus #6’s (or worse), as in that matchup the home teams are just 13-8 SU and 6-14-1 ATS (30%) since 2006. In 2025, the #1 Lions lost to the #6 Commanders in the NFC. This situation affects both the Broncos (vs. #6 Buffalo) and Seahawks (vs. #6 49ers).
· #1 seeds playing as small home favorites of 7-points or less are on an ugly 4-12-1 ATS (25%) slide in the divisional round. As of press time, both #1’s are favored by 7 points or fewer on Saturday, and could both be affected by this trend.
· #2 seeds have been arguably more effective than #1’s when it comes to protecting home field advantage in the divisional round, going 29-12 SU and 22-19 ATS (53.8%) over the last 21 playoff seasons. New England is the AFC’s #2 seed while Chicago is the same for the NFC.
· AFC #1 seeds have gone 15-7 SU in the divisional round but just 6-15-1 ATS (28.6%) since 2004. NFC #1’s have the same outright record in that span but are slightly better at 9-13 ATS (40.9%). Prior to Washington’s 45 points scored last year, the NFC #1’s had allowed just 13.3 PPG in the prior seven games.
Divisional Trends Regarding Totals
· In the last 28 matchups between a #1 seed and a Wild Card team, or a road winner from the prior weekend, Under the total is 21-9-1 (70%). This is the case in both the Bills-Broncos and 49ers-Seahawks matchups.
· #2 seeds are a high scoring surge at 19-10 Over (65.5%) in the last 15 years, with New England and Chicago the #2 seeds for 2026.
· Home teams that have covered the point spread in divisional round games are also on a 21-6-1 Over (77.8%) the total surge. Hosts averaged 33.3 PPG in those contests. Alternatively, road team covers have seen 17 Unders, 8 Overs (72.7%) since 2014. The hosts scored 10.4 PPG fewer in those road covers. In essence, home teams cover with offense, road teams cover with defense.
Following the Line/Total Moves
In the divisional round lately, bettors have been quite sharp in moving game lines, going 26-17 ATS (60.5%) since 2009. However, they were 0-3 ATS last year! Interestingly, only 10 of the last 67 divisional round games moved more than a point off the opening number, and those all came in the last 12 years. Oddsmakers have been quite sharp in that regard. For 2026, the only consensus early move seems to be on Denver. The other games have been fairly stable since opening. However, often the key moves come late in the hours just before kickoff.
Bettors have picked reasonably well on early totals, going 30-25-1 (54.5%) in the last 56 divisional playoff games that have seen the total move off the opening number. However, they are just 4-11-1 in the last five seasons following an 11-2 surge. As of press time, early bettors were favoring Under in the BUF-DEN, SEA-SF, and LAR-CHI contests.
Stats Generated in Divisional Playoff Games
· It has taken more points to win in the divisional playoff round as opposed to the wildcard round. Last week, I explained that only seven home teams that hit the 21-point mark lost in the last 24 years of Wild Card playoff action. They were 1-2 SU and 2-1 ATS last week. The benchmark for the divisional round is a touch higher at 27 points, as home teams that reach that point total are 45-6 SU and 36-15 ATS (70.6%) since 2002.
· Failing to reach the 27-point mark has left home teams with a 21-24 SU and 7-36-2 ATS (16.3%) record since 2002 in divisional playoff games. If you consider this year’s four home teams, Seattle averaged 28.4 PPG, Denver 23.6, Chicago 25.9, and New England 28.8.
· The magic point total for road teams in divisional playoff action has proven to be 21 points, a point higher than last week, as they are 24-25 SU but 33-15 ATS (68.8%) since 2002 when they reached that mark. When scoring 20 points or less, the chance of a road team winning in this round drops dramatically to 6-42 SU and 18-28-2 ATS (39.1%) in that same span. The Texans are easily the lowest-scoring road teams in this year’s lot, averaging 23.8 PPG.
· Since 2002, the offensive potency of the road team typically controls the total result. When road teams in the divisional round score 24 points or more, Over is 31-6 (83.8%). When road teams fail to reach 20 points, Under is 30-7-1 (81.1%) in the L38.
· Teams that gain more first downs are 39-26-2 ATS (60%) in the last 17 divisional playoff seasons. However, they did lose all four games outright last season.
· Teams that control the time of possession are just 36-31-1 ATS (53.7%) in the divisional playoffs since 2009.
· Divisional playoff teams that gain more yards rushing in their playoff games are 44-22-1 ATS (66.7%) over the last 17 seasons. At the same time, teams that rush for more yards per attempt in a divisional playoff game are only 32-27-1 ATS (54.2%) since 2010.
· Putting up big passing numbers in divisional playoff games hasn’t been a real key to success, since teams with an edge in that stat are just 34-33-1 ATS (50.7%) since 2009, including 8-16 ATS the last six seasons.
· Teams that make the most of their passing opportunities or hit big plays have been quite successful. In fact, teams gaining more yards per pass attempt in a divisional playoff game are on a 42-20-1 ATS (67.7%) run. Consider this year, which team is more apt to put up big passing plays in the matchup?
· The turnover has also been a big factor in winning or losing divisional playoff games of late, as teams committing fewer turnovers than their opponent have gone 36-15-1 ATS (70.6%) since 2008. Not surprisingly, besides points, this remains the most important in-game statistical factor.
Teams’ Regular Season Won-Lost Record Trends
· Home teams that won 13 or more games in the regular season are only 31-18 SU and 18-31 ATS (36.7%) in the divisional playoffs since 2006. When matched up against a team that won 11 or more games in the regular season, that mark drops to just 11-9 SU and 6-14 ATS (30%) during that span. Denver, Seattle, and New England won 13+ games, while all four road teams won 11+ games in the regular season.
· There seems to be a noticeable difference in success levels for road teams in the divisional playoff round that won 10 or fewer games in the regular season as opposed to those that were 11 wins or better. The lesser group is just 13-36 SU and 21-27-1 ATS (43.8%) since 2002, while the more elite group was 17-22 SU but 26-13 ATS (66.7%). Again, all four road teams this weekend won 11+ games in the regular season.
· Home teams that won at least four more games during the regular season than their divisional playoff opponent are 16-3 SU but 9-10 ATS (47.4%) since 2005. Baltimore last lost outright on this trend in 2020. Last year was the first time in four seasons that we had team(s) qualify, but Kansas City and Philadelphia each won without covering.
· The visiting Rams (12-5), boasting more wins than host Chicago (11-6), will mark just the second time since 2002 that a road team had more wins than the host in a divisional playoff game. When home teams have had even records or fewer wins, they have gone 7-3 SU and 5-5 ATS in the last 10.
· Most divisional matchups fall in the realm of hosts having won 1-3 more regular-season games than their road opponent. Such is the case for the Buffalo-Denver, Seattle-San Francisco, and Houston-New England games. Recent history shows these hosts going 8-5 SU, but just 5-8 ATS (38.5%) in their last 13 tries.
Teams’ Regular Season Offensive Statistics Trends
· Teams that scored more points per game during the regular season are 46-22 SU and 36-30-1 ATS (54.5%) over the last 17 divisional playoff seasons, but just 8-12 ATS (40%) since the playoffs expanded five years ago. Seattle, Buffalo, the Rams, and New England own the edges in this category for 2026.
· Teams who averaged more rushing yards per game are 40-40 SU and 46-33-1 ATS (58.2%) since 2006. Similarly, those that averaged more yards per rush were 37-43 SU and 46-33-1 ATS (58.7%). There is no recency edge for either category.
· Passing yardage has not meant any more than rushing in terms of outright divisional playoff success, with teams owning an edge in total offensive passing yardage going just 48-32 SU and 40-39-1 ATS (50.6%) over the last 20 seasons in this playoff round. More efficient passing yards per attempt teams share a similar 50-30 SU and 40-39-1 ATS (50.6%) mark. Teams in that latter group are just 4-8 ATS over the last three seasons after getting swept ATS last season.
· Teams that generated more yardage overall offensively in the regular season own a decent edge when it comes to divisional playoff success, going 54-26 SU and 43-36-1 ATS (54.4%) over the last 20 seasons. The offensive yards per play statistic also reflects a good level of success, as teams with an edge in that offensive category are 40-28 SU and 37-30-1 ATS (55.2%) over the last 17 years, including 14-6 SU and 12-8 ATS the last five seasons. The Bills, Seahawks, Patriots, and Rams own the YPP edges for 2026.
· Unlike the Wild Card round, offensive yards per point has not proven to be an effective statistical indicator long term on point spreads, as teams who have averaged fewer yards per point are just 47-29 SU and 36-39-1 ATS (48%) in the divisional playoff round since 2007.
· Completely disregard the offensive turnovers statistic since teams that turned the ball over fewer times in the regular season than their opponents are only 30-37 SU and 28-38-1 ATS (42.4%) since 2008 in divisional playoff games.
· Teams that converted third down opportunities more efficiently in the regular season were 45-34 SU but 31-47-1 ATS (39.7%) in the last 75 divisional playoff games. This includes a 13-18 ATS (41.9%) record over the last eight playoff seasons. This is somewhat surprising as third-down conversion percentage usually goes hand-in-hand with quality of QB play.
Teams’ Regular Season Defensive Statistics Trends
· We saw in the Wild Card round that defensive scoring was an important stat. In the divisional round, teams that allowed fewer points per game during the regular season are just 30-30 SU and 26-33-1 ATS (44.1%) over the last 15 years, including 6-14 ATS (30%) the last five seasons.
· Teams that allowed fewer rushing yards per game have slipped to 33-35 SU and 26-41-1 ATS (38.8%) in the divisional playoff round since 2008, including 6-22 ATS (21.4%) in the last seven years. Those that allowed fewer yards per rush have been better for a more extended period at 49-28 SU and 41-35-1 ATS (53.9%). If you’re wondering, for the cases of potentially fading, the teams that allowed fewer rushing yards per game in the regular season were Denver, Seattle, Houston, and the Rams.
· Divisional playoff teams with an edge in defensive passing yardage allowed over their opponent are 45-31 SU and 37-38-1 ATS (49.3%) over the last 19 seasons in this round. Teams with the edge in defensive pass efficiency are on a run of 40-28 SU and 33-33-1 ATS (50.9%) over the last 17 divisional playoff seasons. Neither of these trends provides any noteworthy handicapping advantage.
· Teams that allowed less yardage overall defensively own a record of 37-31 SU and 30-37-1 ATS (44.8%) since 2009, while those that held an edge in yards allowed per play were a bit better outright at 37-29 SU and 28-37-1 ATS (43.1%). Clearly, this is not a reliable indicator and essentially, defensive numbers have paled in comparison to the offensive prowess of late in the divisional round.
· When analyzing divisional playoff statistical matchups, defensive yards per point is not a valuable handicapping nugget either, as teams with an edge there are just 39-39 SU and 37-40-1 ATS (48.1%) in the last 78 games of this round.
· Teams that forced more turnovers in the regular season than their opponent are 36-29 SU and 39-25-1 ATS (60.9%) since 2009 in divisional playoff games. This one is easily our best defensive statistical indicator, although they are currently on a 3-5 ATS skid. That said, the teams that more forced turnovers for the 2026 matchups are Buffalo, Seattle, Houston, and Chicago, with the Bears being the league’s best team in that regard.
· Teams that stopped third-down opportunities more efficiently in the regular season are on a 38-31 SU and 38-30-1 ATS (55.9%) run in the last 69 divisional playoff games with edges, although they are 7-13 ATS over the last five years.
Summary
Clearly, the divisional round trends and systems aren’t nearly as definitive as those of the Wild Card round. The back-and-forth results of this round for home/road, dog/fav, etc., have really thrown trend handicapping for a loop. If you’re looking for long-term strategies that have fared well historically, however, it would seem that home field, the backing of sharp bettors, and good offenses led by proven quarterbacks is a good recipe to start with as you sit down to handicap this week’s games.
Considering what we’ve analyzed with regard to divisional playoff performance and statistics, the latter haven’t really proven worthy of consideration when handicapping the games. Interestingly, the key stat angles that have shown betting success recently are the ability to generate big plays in the passing game and not having to work hard for points. In other words, a lot falls on the quarterbacks. Not a surprise. Which QBs do you value more in each of the four games?
Best of luck, and don’t be shocked to see at least one matchup you might not have expected next weekend when we review the conference championships. Remember, three out of four hosts winning has been the norm, even in road-covering advantage seasons. That 3-1 SU or better mark has happened in 12 of the last 14 years, in fact. For those interested, I’ll have my best bets for the weekend ready on Friday.
