Last week, I started my annual NFL playoff series by looking at the trends of recent years, digging into the Wild Card round. I revealed a number of different systems and methodologies: angles regarding outright winners, line range trends, and key stats that typically lead to success in that round. I also had another overall playoff trends and systems article that focused on other statistical angles, playoff droughts, first-time quarterbacks and coaches, as well as rematches. It all worked well for me in that I won on four of my six best bets for the week. This week, I will be moving on to the divisional round. The six winners of last weekend join #1 seeds Detroit and Kansas City in the theoretical Elite Eight, looking to take another huge step towards the Super Bowl. I encourage you to also look back at the overall playoff article from last week, plus take in this week’s exclusive VSiN NFL Analytics Report to make sure you are ready for this weekend.

As we analyze the remaining teams, I should note that in my NFL Shared Traits from past champions piece, my top teams from both conferences are Baltimore and Philadelphia. Of course, my final NFL Strength Rating Update post-Week 18 showed that the Ravens and Lions were the top teams expected to meet in New Orleans in a few weeks. That said, will being off last week help or hurt the Lions’ (or Chiefs’) prospects? Two years ago, both top seeds, Green Bay and Tennessee, looked rusty in their opening playoff games and were quickly bounced. Since then, all four top seeds won their divisional round games. 

 

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In 2022, for the first time since 2009, road teams took the divisional round by winning three of the four contests. Hosts got it back the last two years by going 6-2 SU and 4-4 ATS. What does all of that tell us about the prospects for this weekend’s games? Unfortunately, for the most part, it details a process of being unable to trust patterns and to focus more closely on the specific matchups.

One important point of note regarding the lines for the games: This round typically sees the largest favorites of any playoff round, and 2017 marked the only time since 2009 when fewer than two teams were favored by at least a TD. That particular season, I speculated at the time that perhaps it signaled a couple of upsets coming. Pittsburgh and Green Bay both pulled those upsets. In 2022, again I noted in this particular piece that none of the four teams were favored by more than 5.5 points, and perhaps it signaled a greater potential for upsets. That turned out to be the most prophetic words I shared, as road teams/underdogs went 3-1. For 2025, we again have two hosts playing as favorites of more than a TD and two not.

Recent years have produced some wild action in this round. The 2019 season’s most exciting game saw Kansas City rally from a 24-0 deficit to beat Houston 51-31, and the Chiefs would eventually go on to win a Super Bowl title. Surely, you remember the 45-42 Jacksonville win at Pittsburgh in 2018, or the Minnesota Miracle that same season. Just two years ago, we witnessed a game dubbed one of the greatest playoff games in history where the Chiefs outlasted Buffalo 42-36 in an epic overtime shootout, a game that eventually ended up forcing postseason overtime rules changes, which we are now under. Those two AFC powers played the most captivating game of the 2024 divisional round, with the Chiefs winning on the road 27-24. You would have to figure that the Bills game this upcoming weekend will be the one to watch, as they are a 1-point home dog to the Ravens.

So, let’s dig through the NFL Divisional Playoff log of recent seasons to see if we can’t uncover some trends and systems that we can apply when handicapping this weekend’s games.

·  The outright winner owns a 37-12-1 ATS (75.5%) mark in the last 50 divisional playoff games. This is actually well below the regular season standards. If you recall in last week’s Wild Card article, outright winners were on a much stronger 86.3% ATS run and proceeded to go 6-0 ATS last weekend. The high volume of lofty point spreads in the divisional round obviously contributes to this.

·  Since 2009, home teams have been on a convincing run of 43-17 SU and 30-29-1 ATS (58%) in the divisional round. They are also 19-16-1 ATS in the last nine years, re-emphasizing the importance of not only home-field advantage, but the extra week of rest and health that comes for teams securing a bye in the Wild Card round. Of course, for a fifth straight season, only the two #1 seeds enjoyed the luxury of having last weekend to rest. If you go back through each year since 2012, a span of 13 playoff seasons, there have only been two years in which home teams did not win at least three of the four games. If three hosts win in 2025 once again, which will they be?

·  There have only been four road favorites in the last 28 years of the divisional playoffs, and San Francisco was the first to win in that scenario in 2014, beating Carolina 23-10. The other three lost outright and ATS. It seems like we will finally have another game test this trend, with Baltimore installed now as the smallest of favorites at Buffalo.

·  Point spreads have proven to be a strong giveaway as to which team should win in divisional playoff games, as home favorites of 5.5 points or less (or underdog) are just 16-15 SU and 12-19 ATS (38.7%) since 2006, while those laying 6 points or more are 33-11 SU and 21-22-1 ATS (48.8%) in that same span. That’s a difference of almost 25% outright and 10% against the point spread. All hosts besides Buffalo meet the high line criteria for this weekend as of Wednesday.

·  Double-digit home favorites in the divisional round are on an 8-1 SU and 6-2 ATS (75%) surge. Tennessee’s upset of Baltimore in 2019 is the only outright loss in that group. Detroit is set up as a 10-point favorite over Washington on Saturday.

·  Road teams have proven to be worthy bets in the divisional round when underdogs in the +3.5 to +9.5 range, going 26-17-1 ATS (60.5%) in the last 44 tries (14-30 SU). Houston (+8.5) and the Rams (+6) will look to extend this point spread angle in 2025.

·  In intra-divisional games of this playoff round, the road teams are on a 4-2 SU and ATS surge. However, host Philadelphia clobbered the Giants 38-7 in 2023. None of this weekend’s games apply.

·  Here are the divisional round records since 2002 for the teams playing this weekend. Note that only three of them, the Chiefs, Bills, and 49ers reached this level last season:

Kansas City: 6-3 SU and 4-5 ATS
Houston: 0-5 SU and 1-4 ATS
Detroit: 1-0 SU and ATS
Washington: 0-1 SU and ATS
Philadelphia: 7-2 SU and 8-1 ATS
LA Rams: 2-1 SU and ATS
Buffalo: 1-3 SU and ATS
Baltimore: 4-7 SU and ATS

·  There has been a significant performance difference in home/road dichotomy based upon the day of the weekend the Divisional Playoff game has been played on. On Saturdays, Home teams have gone 25-5 SU and 20-10 ATS (66.7%) over the last 15 seasons. On Sundays, road teams have performed much better, going 18-20 SU and 25-12-1 ATS (67.6%) since 2006! Last weekend’s Wild Card article showed similar trends, and both of this year’s Saturday teams won outright and ATS, while the Sunday hosts were 2-1 SU and ATS.

·  In terms of AFC/NFC breakdown, AFC home teams are 21-10 SU and 15-15-1 ATS (50%) in the last 31, while NFC hosts are 27-11 SU and 18-20 ATS (47.4%) since 2006 in this playoff round.

·  In terms of Wild Card teams’ potential success in the divisional round, note that 17 of the last 25 Wild Card teams to cover the spread in divisional games played well defensively in the prior game, allowing 20 points or less. For this weekend, all six of the winning Wild Card game teams played well enough defensively to qualify for this potential trend. Of course, in the Rams/Eagles and Bills/Ravens games, these teams square off against one another.

·  With two of last weekend’s Wild Card winners topping the 30-point mark, it should be noted that eight of the last 13 teams that scored 31 points or more in their Wild Card wins covered their divisional point spreads. This will affect the Texans and Bills in 2025.

·  Of the last 36 teams that pulled off road wins in the Wild Card round to advance to this weekend, 21 of them have covered the point spread (60% with one push) and 12 have won a second straight road game outright. The Commanders will be seeking a second straight road win this weekend.

·  When both teams in a divisional playoff matchup were not in the playoffs the prior season, as was the case most recently in the Houston-Baltimore and Tampa Bay-Detroit matchups of 2024, home teams are 6-1 SU and 4-3 ATS since 2005, having gone Over the total 5-1-1 as well. For 2025, there are no such matchups.

·  Returning playoff teams from the prior season playing as hosts in the divisional round to teams that weren’t in the playoffs the prior year are 13-10 SU but just 7-16 ATS (30.4%) in their last 23 when playing as single-digit favorites. Washington is the only one of the remaining eight teams that wasn’t a playoff team last season, but the Commanders are 10-point underdogs as of this writing.

·  In divisional playoff games when both teams were in the playoffs the prior season, hosts are 19-7 SU and 14-11-1 ATS (56%) when favored by 5.5 points or more. This applies to the Houston-Kansas City and LA Rams-Philadelphia games.

·  In 2024, Detroit played as a non-returning playoff team hosting a returning playoff team in the divisional round. Those teams are now on a 10-4 SU and 9-5 ATS run since 2008. No such contest for 2025.

·  Teams fight all season long to half home-field advantage throughout their conference playoffs. However, that advantage has not lasted long as #1 seeds are 29-13 SU but just 15-26-1 ATS (36.6%) dating back to 2004.

·  Making matters worse for the #1 seeds is their record versus #6’s (or worse), as in that matchup the home teams are just 13-7 SU and 6-13-1 ATS (31.6%) since 2006. In 2024, San Francisco barely survived #7 Green Bay. For 2025, the #1 Lions host the #6 Commanders in the NFC.

·  #1 seeds playing as small home favorites of 7 points or less are on an ugly 4-12-1 ATS (25%) slide in the divisional round. As of press time, both #1’s are favored by at least 8.5 points on Saturday, and don’t figure to be affected by this trend.

·  #2 seeds have been arguably more effective than #1’s when it comes to protecting home field advantage in the divisional round, going 27-12 SU and 21-18 ATS (53.8%) over the last 20 playoff seasons. Buffalo is the AFC’s #2 seed, while Philadelphia is the same for the NFC.

·  NFC #1 seeds have been fairly strong in recent years, going 10-2 SU in their last 12. In the last seven games, they allowed just 13.3 PPG.

·  In the last 28 matchups between a #1 seed and a Wild Card team, or a road winner from the prior weekend, Under the total is 21-8-1 (72.4%). This is the case in the Lions-Commanders matchup.

·  #2 seeds are a high-scoring surge at 17-10 Over (63%) in the last 14 years, with Buffalo and Philadelphia the #2 seeds for 2025.

·  Home teams that have covered the point spread in divisional round games are also on a 20-6-1 Over (76.9%) the total surge. Hosts averaged 33.5 PPG in those contests. Alternatively, road team covers have seen 16 Unders, 6 Overs (72.7%) since 2014. The hosts scored 11.2 PPG fewer in those road covers. In essence, home teams cover with offense; road teams cover with defense.

Following the Line/Total Moves

Last week, I showed you how bettors have struggled recently in moving game lines from opening to closing at a 44.7% rate over the last five seasons. They then proceeded to go 2-1 ATS last weekend. Well, specifically in the divisional round lately, they have been sharp, going 26-14 ATS (65%) since 2009. Interestingly, only nine of the last 63 divisional round games moved more than a point off the opening number, and those all came in the last 11 years. Oddsmakers have been quite sharp in that regard. For 2025, the consensus early moves seem to be on Kansas City, Detroit, Philadelphia and Baltimore. Again, often the key moves come late in the hours just before kickoff.

Bettors have picked reasonably well on early totals, going 29-24-1 (54.7%) in the last 54 divisional playoff games that have seen the total move off the opening number. However, they are just 3-10-1 in the last four seasons following an 11-2 surge. As of press time, early bettors were favoring Under in the HOU-KC and LAR-PHI contests.

Stats Generated in Divisional Playoff Games

·  It has taken more points to win in the divisional playoff round as opposed to the Wild Card round. Only five home teams that topped the 20-point mark lost in the last 23 years of Wild Card playoff action. They were 6-0 SU and ATS last week! The benchmark for the divisional round is a touchdown higher at 27 points, as home teams that reach that point total are 43-5 SU and 35-13 ATS (72.9%) since 2002, including both home covers in 2024.

·  Failing to reach the 27-point mark has left home teams with a 20-24 SU and 7-35-2 ATS (16.7%) record since 2002 in divisional playoff games. If you consider this year’s four home teams, Kansas City averaged 22.6 PPG, Detroit 33.2, Philadelphia 27.2, and Buffalo 30.9.

·  The magic point total for road teams in divisional playoff action has proven to be 21 points, as they are 23-23 SU and 31-14 ATS (68.9%) since 2002 when they reached that mark.  When scoring 20 points or less, the chance of a road team winning in this round drops dramatically to 6-41 SU and 17-28-2 ATS (37.8%) in that same span. The Texans and Rams are the lowest-scoring road teams in this year’s lot, both averaging less than 22.0 PPG.

·  Since 2002, the offensive potency of the road team typically controls the total result. When road teams in the divisional round score 24 points or more, Over is 29-6 (82.9%). When road teams fail to reach 20 points, Under is 29-7-1 (80.6%) in the last 37.

·  Teams that gain more first downs are 37-24-2 ATS (60.7%) in the last 16 divisional playoff seasons.

·  Teams that control the time of possession are just 33-30-1 ATS (52.4%) in the divisional playoffs since 2009.

·  Divisional playoff teams that gain more yards rushing in their playoff games are 43-19-1 ATS (69.4%) over the last 16 seasons. At the same time, teams that rush for more yards per attempt in a divisional playoff game are only 31-24-1 ATS (56.4%) since 2010.

·  Putting up big passing numbers in divisional playoff games hasn’t been a real key to success, since teams with an edge in that stat are just 32-31-1 ATS (50.8%) since 2009, including 6-14 ATS in the last five seasons.

·  Teams that make the most of their passing opportunities or hit big plays have been quite successful. In fact, teams gaining more yards per pass attempt in a divisional playoff game are on a 39-19-1 ATS (67.2%) run.  Consider this year which team are more apt to put up big passing plays in the matchups.

·  The turnover has also been a big factor in winning or losing divisional playoff games of late, as teams committing fewer turnovers than their opponent have gone 34-14-1 ATS (70.8%) since 2008. Not surprisingly, besides points, this remains the most important in-game statistical factor.

·  Home teams that won 13 or more games in the regular season are only 28-17 SU and 17-28 ATS (37.8%) in the divisional playoffs since 2006. When matched up against a team that won 11 or more games in the regular season, that mark drops to just 10-8 SU and 5-13 ATS (27.8%) during that span. All four home teams for 2025 won 13+ games, while Baltimore and Washington are the road teams to win 11 games in the regular season.

·  There seems to be a noticeable difference in success levels for road teams in the divisional playoff round that won 10 or fewer games in the regular season as opposed to those that were 11 wins or better. The lesser group is just 13-34 SU and 21-25-1 ATS (45.7%) since 2002, while the more elite group was 17-20 SU but 25-12 ATS (67.6%). Again, the road teams this weekend that won 11 or more games in the regular season were the Commanders and Chiefs. Both the Rams and Texans won 10 games each.

·  Home teams that won at least four more games during the regular season than their divisional playoff opponent are 14-3 SU and 9-8 ATS since 2005. Baltimore last lost on this trend in 2020. For the first time in four seasons we will have team(s) qualify, Kansas City and Philadelphia.

·  Teams that scored more points per game during the regular season are 43-21 SU and 35-27-1 ATS (56.5%) over the last 16 divisional playoff seasons. However, they are just 7-9 ATS (43.8%) since the playoffs expanded four years ago.  All four hosts own the edges in this category for 2025.

·  Teams who averaged more rushing yards per game are 38-38 SU and 44-31-1 ATS (58.7%) since 2006. Similarly, those that averaged more yards per rush were 35-41 SU and 44-31-1 ATS (58.7%). Houston, Washington, Philadelphia and Baltimore again own these categories in 2025.

·  Passing yardage has meant more than rushing in terms of outright divisional playoff success, with teams owning an edge in total offensive passing yardage going just 47-29 SU and 39-36-1 ATS (52%) over the last 19 seasons in this playoff round. More efficient passing yards per attempt teams share a similar 48-28 SU and 40-35-1 ATS (53.3%) mark. Teams in that latter group are 14-6 ATS over the last five seasons. Detroit and Baltimore own edges in both categories, while the HOU-KC and LAR-PHI games show split edges.

·  Teams that generated more yardage overall offensively in the regular season own a decent edge when it comes to divisional playoff success, going 52-24 SU and 43-32-1 ATS (57.3%) over the last 13 seasons.  The offensive yards per play statistic also reflects a good level of success, as teams with an edge in that offensive category are 39-25 SU and 36-27-1 ATS (57.1%) over the last 16 years, including 13-3 SU and 11-5 ATS the last four seasons. The KC-HOU game shows split edges. Otherwise, it is advantage hosts.

·  Unlike the Wild Card round, offensive yards per point has not proven to be an effective statistical indicator long-term on point spreads, as teams who have averaged fewer yards per point are just 44-28 SU and 35-36-1 ATS (49.3%) in the divisional playoff round since 2007.

·  Completely disregard the offensive turnovers statistic since teams that turned the ball over fewer times in the regular season than their opponents are only 28-35 SU and 26-36-1 ATS (41.9%) since 2008 in divisional playoff games.

·  Teams that converted third down opportunities more efficiently in the regular season were 42-33 SU but 28-46-1 ATS (37.8%) in the last 75 divisional playoff games. This includes a 10-17 ATS record over the last seven playoff seasons. This is somewhat surprising as third down conversion percentage usually goes hand-in-hand with the quality of QB play. Baltimore, Kansas City, Detroit, and Philadelphia hold the “edges” here.

·  We saw in the Wild Card round that defensive scoring was a crucial stat. In the divisional round, teams that allowed fewer points per game during the regular season are just 28-28 SU and 26-29-1 ATS (47.3%) over the last 14 years, including 6-10 ATS the last four seasons.

·  Teams that allowed fewer rushing yards per game have slipped to 31-33 SU and 26-37-1 ATS (41.3%) in the divisional playoff round since 2008, including 6-18 ATS in the last six years. Those that allowed fewer yards per rush have been better for a more extended period at 47-26 SU and 41-31-1 ATS (56.9%).

·  Divisional playoff teams with an edge in defensive passing yardage allowed over their opponent are 42-30 SU and 34-37-1 ATS (47.9%) over the last 18 seasons in this round. Teams with the edge in defensive pass efficiency are on a run of 38-26 SU and 31-31-1 ATS (50.9%) over the last 16 divisional playoff seasons.

·  Teams that allowed less yardage overall defensively own a record of 35-29 SU and 28-35-1 ATS (44.4%) since 2009 while those that held an edge in yards allowed per play were a bit better outright at 35-27 SU and 26-35-1 ATS (42.6%). Clearly, this is not a reliable indicator and essentially, defensive numbers have paled in comparison to offensive prowess of late in the divisional round.

·  When analyzing divisional playoff statistical matchups, defensive yards per point is not a valuable handicapping nugget either, as teams with an edge there are just 36-38 SU and 36-37-1 ATS (49.3%) in the last 74 games of this round.

·  Teams that forced more turnovers in the regular season than their opponent are 34-27 SU and 37-23-1 ATS (61.7%) since ’09 in divisional playoff games. This one is easily our best defensive statistical indicator, although the teams last year were just 1-3 ATS. That said, the teams that more forced turnovers for the 2025 matchups are Houston, Detroit, Philadelphia, and Buffalo.

·  Teams that stopped third down opportunities more efficiently in the regular season are on a 37-28 SU and 37-27-1 ATS (57.8%) run in the last 65 divisional playoff games, although they are 6-10 ATS over the last four years.

Summary

Clearly, the divisional round trends and systems aren’t nearly as definitive as those of the Wild Card round. The back-and-forth results of this round for home/road, dog/fav, etc., have really thrown trend handicapping for a loop. If you’re looking for long-term strategies that have fared well historically, however, it would seem that home field, the backing of sharp bettors, and good offenses led by proven quarterbacks is a good recipe to start with as you sit down to handicap this week’s games.

Considering what we’ve analyzed with regard to divisional playoff performance and statistics, only certain statistics are really worthy of consideration when handicapping the games. Interestingly, the key stat angles that have shown betting success recently are the ability to generate big plays in the passing game and not having to work hard for points. In other words, a lot falls on the quarterbacks. Not a surprise. Which QBs do you value more in each of the four games?

Best of luck, and don’t be shocked to see at least one matchup you might not have expected next weekend when we review the conference championships. Three out of four hosts winning has been the norm in nine of the last 13 years. For those interested, I’ll have my best bets for the weekend ready on Thursday or Friday.

VIEW NFL PLAYOFF DIVISIONAL ROUND HISTORICAL RESULTS HERE

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