NFL Divisional Round Best Bets from Matt Youmans:

Wild Card weekend was rather mild. Five of the six games were decided by double digits and the average winning margin was 15.2 points. Scoring was down, with the highest-scoring game being 44 points and the average score hitting 39.2 points. The playoffs can only get better from here, and these are my NFL Divisional Round best bets:

 

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Houston Texans at Kansas City Chiefs (-8.5)

It has been 24 days since quarterback Patrick Mahomes and several of Kansas City’s other starters have played in a game. A long layoff could be a concern, but the Chiefs’ veterans are capable of flipping the switch, and coach Andy Reid has an outstanding record with extra prep time. Houston’s defense harassed Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert last week while totaling four interceptions and four sacks. Mahomes will be more difficult to pressure. When these teams met in Week 16, Mahomes completed 28 of 41 passes for 260 yards and was sacked only once in Kansas City’s 27-19 win. The Chiefs are focused on chasing the first three-peat in Super Bowl history, and if they slip up, it’s not going to happen here. The winner of the Ravens-Bills showdown will be a popular pick to win in KC next week. Mahomes is 0-5-1 ATS as a favorite of seven points or more this season, so I’m not laying the points. CJ Stroud woke up after a sleepy start to pass for 282 yards against the Chargers, and the Texans have enough talent on both sides of the ball to make this interesting. I went with a teaser instead of sweating the cover.

NFL Divisional Round Best Bet: Chiefs -2/Lions -2.5 on a 6.5-point teaser

Washington Commanders at Detroit Lions (-9)

Jayden Daniels has not resembled a rookie. The Washington quarterback totaled 304 yards (268 passing, 36 rushing) and two touchdowns in a 23-20 wild-card win at Tampa Bay. Daniels took only one sack, and the offense never was forced to punt. It’s a lot to ask of Daniels to play his ‘A’ game on the road for the second week in a row. Daniels will be facing a Detroit defense that appeared revitalized — and benefitted from the return of linebacker Alex Anzalone — in a dominant Week 18 win against the Vikings. The Commanders’ defensive numbers improved in recent weeks, but that had a lot to do with facing below-average offenses and weak quarterbacks. When quarterback Jared Goff is not picking apart the secondary, the Lions’ strong offensive line and running attack will wear down the Washington defensive front. It’s worth noting that favorites of more than seven points are on an 18-0 straight-up run in the playoffs. It would be stunning if one of the two favorites fall on Saturday.

NFL Divisional Round Best Bet: Chiefs -2/Lions -2.5 on a 6.5-point teaser

Los Angeles Rams at Philadelphia Eagles (-6)

The worst weather of the weekend is headed for Philadelphia, where it will be cold with snow and light winds in the forecast. Snow would be far from ideal for Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford, who will need to throw the ball with a lot of success to give his team a shot. The Rams can run it with Kyren Williams, but they must use the pass to set up the run, so Stafford’s connections with wideout Puka Nacua and tight end Tyler Higbee will be essential. 

Philadelphia’s defense will miss injured linebacker Nakobe Dean, who ranked second on the team with 128 tackles in the regular season. When these teams met in Week 12 in Los Angeles, the Eagles rolled 37-20 as Saquon Barkley rushed for a season-high 255 yards, including touchdown runs of 70 and 72 yards. But a Rams defense led by rookie edge rusher Jared Verse has matured. Drawing a line through Week 18, when several starters rested, the Rams allowed an average of 8.3 points in their past four games. Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts is still struggling as a passer, making Barkley that much more important. The Rams, 4-1 ATS in road playoff games with coach Sean McVay, are dangerous ‘dogs, but Philadelphia probably finds a way to advance. I played this Under 44 and the total is dipping some because of the winter weather conditions, which might make bettors a little less enthusiastic about the warm-weather Rams.

NFL Divisional Round Best Bets: Rams +6 and Under 43.5 (half-unit each)

Baltimore Ravens (-1) at Buffalo Bills

In a lopsided Week 4 loss at Baltimore, the Buffalo defense allowed the Ravens’ Derrick Henry to run for 199 yards. This will be a different game, however, because the Bills are close to full strength on defense. Starting linebackers Terrel Bernard and Matt Milano are back after missing the teams’ first meeting. While it will be cold in Buffalo, the weather is not much of a factor in my handicapping of this one. The stakes are high and the quarterbacks will be running with reckless abandon. It’s easy to see why the betting public prefers Lamar Jackson, Henry and a Ravens defense that ranks among the league’s best. I don’t want to count out Josh Allen and the Bills, who are home underdogs for the first time since 2020. The side feels like a coin flip, so I’m playing the ‘dog on a teaser.

NFL Divisional Round Best Bet: Chiefs -2/Bills +7.5 on a 6.5-point teaser

Last week: 2-2 against the spread

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