Is AI our new friend for trends?
Steve Makinen is back with his trends and betting systems for the divisional round.
Now I would be the first to admit there is a lot of data in Steve’s round-by-round playoff trends pieces — and some of it is conflicting.
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So last week, for this very newsletter, I ran his Wild-Card trends story through my favorite AI program (Gemini) and asked for one Best Bet. It spit out the Under on the Denver-Buffalo game, which did go Under 49.5 quite easily (38).
So I decided to do it again. This time, Gemini gave me Houston +8.5 at KC for these reasons:
Road Underdog Trend: Road teams in the Divisional round as underdogs in the +3.5 to +9.5 range have a strong ATS record (60.5%). Houston fits this trend perfectly.
Home Team Scoring: Home teams scoring less than 27 points have a poor ATS record (16.7%) in the divisional round. Kansas City’s regular season scoring average (22.6 PPG) suggests they might struggle to exceed this threshold.
“Against the Grain” Factor: The data shows that fading popular bets (like heavily favored home teams) can be profitable.
Steve credits last week’s trends and systems piece for helping him to a 4-2 record on his Wild-Card Best Bets. So we’ll wait and see what one of my favorite human handicappers does with the data when he posts his top divisional plays (likely later tonight).
All of our stories and resources for this round are posted here.
Listen Now: Drew Dinsick of NBC Sports Edge joins host Gill Alexander and regulars Will Hill and Todd Wishnev to give their Best Bets for the weekend games on the Beating The Book podcast.
Today in College Hoops
Greg Peterson has posted his Best Bets for today’s menu.
Adam Burke and Tyler Shoemaker will have their top plays later this morning.
Listen now: Greg’s daily podcast handicapping every game on the menu every day.
Quick Hits
College football: On the VSiN College Football Betting Podcast, Tim Murray breaks down the game with Adam Burke in a meeting of the minds — a Notre Dame fan vs. an Ohio State fan.
NBA: Zach Cohen will post his Best Bets by mid-morning.
NHL: Look for Jonathan Davis‘ picks later today.
Australian Open: Zach Cohen is posting his Australian Open Best Bets daily on our tennis page. Both Zach and Gill Alexander are posting their plays on the VSiN Pro picks page.
Horse Racing: 1/ST BET handicapper Jeremy Plonk has picks for today’s return of racing at Santa Anita. 1/ST BET offers wagering on hundreds of races every day from across the country and around the world. Sign up at 1STBET.COM with promo code VSIN200 to claim a 20% rebate for your first 60 days, up to $200.
This is The VSiN Daily newsletter for Thursday, January 16.. Sign up for this free email and get picks and insights delivered to your in-box every morning.
