Texans vs. Ravens Divisional Round odds and predictions
On Saturday, January 20, the Baltimore Ravens host the Houston Texans at M&T Bank Stadium in Baltimore, Maryland. This unlikely match-up will kick off at 4:30 pm ET, when C.J. Stroud and the Texans will look to keep things rolling against a Ravens team that was borderline unbeatable this season. Houston already surprised a lot of people by beating a very good Cleveland Browns team, but can this young squad do it again? Beating Baltimore will be a much tougher challenge. Keep reading for our Texans vs. Ravens picks and predictions to see how this one might play out.
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How To Watch Texans vs. Ravens
Date: Saturday, January 20
Time: 4:30 pm ET
Channel: ESPN/ABC
Texans vs. Ravens Spread
The Texans absolutely obliterated the Browns in the Wild-Card Round, earning a 45-14 home victory. Stroud didn’t look anything like a rookie in that game, throwing for 274 yards with three touchdowns and no interceptions. Perhaps his College Football Playoff experience made him more comfortable. It could have also been the Week 18 meeting with the Indianapolis Colts, which essentially was a postseason game. Either way, Stroud has proven that the moment won’t be too big for him. And he did it against a Browns defense that is second in the league in Defensive DVOA this year — and second against the pass. That should give him confidence that he can do the same against the Ravens, who are the first-ranked team when it comes to Defensive DVOA — both overall and against the pass. The problem is that he’ll need to try and do it in Baltimore, where it will be cold and extremely windy. The forecast is calling for winds north of 30 miles per hour. The Ravens are also well rested defensively after having a bye last week.
Considering the advantage in rest, I expect Baltimore to do just enough to keep Houston’s offense in check here. The Ravens are also very disciplined in the back end of the secondary, and that should be a difference maker in a match-up like this. The Texans have been having a lot of success beating defenses over the top, but I don’t anticipate that happening here. Baltimore will be ready to defend the deep ball. The Ravens should also get more pressure on Stroud than the Browns did. Houston’s offensive line held up nicely against Cleveland, but this defense will be something else — especially in a road environment.
Offensively, I don’t see the Texans having much of an answer for the Ravens. Houston was just 23rd in the league in Defensive DVOA against the pass this season, and that sets up nicely for Lamar Jackson and this Ravens passing game. This was the fifth-best passing offense in the league this season, according to DVOA. And offensive coordinator Todd Monken will likely have some interesting things planned for Baltimore to unleash here. Also, while the Texans are good against the run, the Ravens are sixth in the league in adjusted line yards this year. They get good push from their offensive line and have a stable of backs that are capable of hitting holes. Jackson will also take off and make plays himself if the running backs aren’t effective.
Overall, this might feel like a lot of points for Baltimore to be laying, but this is arguably the best team in football going against a young quarterback. This is when John Harbaugh typically flexes his coaching muscles. The Ravens are 13-3 when coming off an extra week of preparation under Harbaugh. I think they’ll make that 14-3 and will do it convincingly.
Texans vs. Ravens Total
While I like the Ravens to come up with enough stops to take care of this large spread, it’s hard not to like the Over here. Baltimore scored at least 30 points in eight of its final 11 games, and the Ravens have proven that they have one of the most explosive offenses in the league. That said, I’d be surprised if they don’t hang a big number on a mediocre Texans defense — especially with an extra week to implement things. Meanwhile, I do think Stroud can be trusted to lead a few successful drives in this one. Baltimore might give him some trouble, but the passing game is too explosive to be held to nothing.
I also wouldn’t be surprised if this game was lopsided enough to force the Texans to throw quite a bit in the second half. That’s how a few playoff games have already played out this year, so it can easily happen again here.
Texans vs. Ravens Player Prop
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Mark Andrews Over Receiving Yards
There aren’t any player props available for Andrews yet, but I’m keeping a close eye on his receiving yard total. I originally penciled in Isaiah Likely for a play here, but Andrews was a full participant in practice on Wednesday. So, the star tight end looks like he’ll be out there this week. That’s incredible news for Baltimore in this match-up. Houston is giving up more yards per game to opposing tight ends than all but one team this season. So, Andrews should regularly create space for himself in the short-to-intermediate part of the field, and Jackson will be looking to hit him as often as possible. Andrews is his security blanket and this is a huge game. That comfort level is impossible to ignore with stakes this high.
Texans vs. Ravens Prediction
I don’t like laying this many points against a team with a very good quarterback, but the Ravens have been the best team in the AFC all year. And they have also looked unbeatable at home. That said, I think it’ll be hard for the Texans to overcome the match-up, especially when you consider the difficult road environment and massive disparity in the rest department. I wouldn’t be surprised if this thing gets ugly.
Pick: Ravens -8.5
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