Packers vs. 49ers Divisional Round odds and predictions
The first Divisional Round matchup to be set in stone features the Green Bay Packers and San Francisco 49ers. For the first time in the current playoff format, a No. 7 upset a No. 2, setting up a matchup between the Packers and the No. 1 seed 49ers, who enjoyed the spoils of having the best record in the NFC with a bye during the Wild-Card Round.
Jordan Love leads his team to the Bay Area as a 10-point underdog, but he just knocked off the Dallas Cowboys as a touchdown pup. Can lightning strike twice for the lads of Lambeau or does the ride end here at Levi’s Stadium?
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How To Watch Packers vs. 49ers
Date: Saturday, January 20
Time: 8:15 pm ET
Channel: FOX
Green Bay Packers at San Francisco 49ers (-10, 50)
Dallas was a top-five defense by EPA/play and finished fifth in scoring defense during the regular season. All Love did was post a nearly perfect passer rating in a game that was somehow not nearly as close as the 16-point margin of victory would suggest. This was an elite offense over the back portion of the year and it was on full display, as the Packers raced out to a 27-7 lead by halftime and added on twice in the third quarter and then again in the fourth quarter.
When the dust settled, the Packers finished the game with 7.7 yards per play on a Dallas defense that was eighth in yards per play allowed during the regular season. Love and the Packers went 4-for-4 in the red zone and got to stay in good rhythm by playing.
It is fair to wonder how both the 49ers and Baltimore Ravens will look this week, having effectively two weeks off prior to this game. The Cleveland Browns rested everybody in Week 18 and got pummeled by the Houston Texans. The Los Angeles Rams rested everybody and fell short against a Detroit Lions team that did not, although the Rams did cover and were some Sean McVay game management mishaps away from possibly winning. There may be something to be said about staying sharp and staying on schedule.
If the 49ers are sharp, they’ll win this game. Will they cover the 10-point spread? That’s a different story, but this was the best offense in the NFL by EPA/play by a really large margin. From a Success Rate standpoint, which is a measure of the yardage gained on each play by down and distance, the 49ers had the best passing game and the best running game. Those who backed the Cowboys (raises hand) looked at Green Bay’s pedestrian defensive metrics as the difference in the game, as the Packers finished 28th in Dropback Success Rate against and 23rd in EPA/play.
San Francisco led the NFL in points per drive with 2.7 and was ninth in points allowed per drive with 1.71. Green Bay was ninth in points per drive with 2.16, but 22nd in points allowed per drive 1.99 and ranked 23rd in TO% on offense and on defense. The 49ers, meanwhile, were 18th in TO% on offense, but second in TO% on defense. However, including the Cowboys game, Love has thrown one interception since Week 10. He has 21 TD passes in that span.
Personally, I think the total is what to look at here and I like Over 50. Kyle Shanahan’s offense will get theirs against this Joe Barry defense and the way that Love and the Packers offense has been able to efficiently move the football should lead to some points. The 49ers defense actually ranked 16th in EPA/play since Week 10 and they did finish the regular season just 24th in third-down defense.
Pick: Over 50
Look for some player props to be added as those lines get posted throughout the week.
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