Betting Splits systems update for the NFL Divisional Round

The DK Betting Splits have taken off this season in their popularity. They have always been one of the most touted links on the website and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors.

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If you’re not familiar, these are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. In preseason articles published in the 2023 Football Betting Guides, I outlined different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the 2022 season for both college and pro football. I will be updating the systems in the Analytics Reports, as well as the Sunday (NFL) morning updates going forward.

Here are the DK Betting Splits NFL Systems as they relate to today’s games:

NFL DK Betting Splits system #1: Over the past 1-1/2 seasons, when more than 65% of the handle has been on a particular side of an ATS wager, this majority group is just 61-81 ATS (42.9%). The number for this supermajority in college football was closer to 80%. In other words, if you see 2/3 of the handle backing one side in an NFL game this season, it’s best to fade it.
System Matches (FADE): BUFFALO

NFL DK Betting Splits system #2: The percentage breakdown can be expanded a bit for the number of bets. When 63%+ of the number of bets were on a particular side of an ATS wager since the start of the 2022 season, this majority group has gone 112-132 ATS (45.9%). Although these bettors are over .500 for the 2023 season, I’m still leaving this system on as I believe they will return to norms down the stretch. The NFL is the most public of all bet-able sports, if 63%+ of the bettors at DraftKings likes a particular side, I would still feel comfortable to fade em’.

NFL DK Betting Splits system #6: When the majority handle and number of bets was on road underdogs for an ATS wager, these majority groups have actually produced adequate records, 33-34 ATS (49.3%) and 46-43 ATS (51.5%) respectively going back to September 2022. This matches up somewhat with the logic I used in explaining some college successes. When the public goes “against the grain,” they can at least maintain.
System Matches: HOUSTON

NFL DK Betting Splits system #7: When the majority handle and number of bets have backed a team in an ATS wager in the higher-profile, non-Sunday afternoon games over the last 1-1/2 seasons, these majority groups are just 42-56 ATS (42.9%) and 42-56 ATS (42.9%) respectively. This set of games includes all the Thursday, Saturday, Sunday night (SNF), and Monday night contests.

NFL DK Betting Splits system #8: In another rare winning record, when the majority of the handle has backed the team with less season wins in a 2022 or 2023 NFL game for an ATS wager, this majority group is 38-29 ATS (60.3%). This is proving to be another situation where going against the grain pays off.
System Matches (PLAY): HOUSTON

DK Betting Splits system #11: Quite the opposite of #10, the magic mark for supermajority on handle for betting Overs was 64% or higher, and this group has performed miserably in ’22 & ‘23 with a record of 55-93 (37.2%). To me, this has been a long-standing belief, but when the Over looks too obvious, it usually loses. On number of bets, this same super majority percentage produced a slightly improved 59-77 (43.4%) record.

DK Betting Splits system #12: Call this one the Over trap, but when a super-majority (>=64%) of handle has been on the Over, but DraftKings moved the opening total lower throughout the week, this majority group has lost big, going just 19-46 (29.2%) over the past 1-1/2 seasons. Almost as if they were trying to bait more people into taking the Over. This is a classic example of where those behind the counter are smarter than those trying to cash the tickets.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER): HOU-BAL

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As one of the original founders of StatFox, Steve Makinen has been in the business of sports betting and data analysis for almost 25 years now. In his time in the industry, Steve has worked in a variety of capacities on both sides of the betting counter, from his early days of developing the StatFox business, to almost a decade of oddsmaking consulting for one of the world's leading sportsbooks, to his last seven years as Point Spread Weekly and Analytics Director with VSiN. Steve has always believed that number crunching and handicapping through foundational trends and systems is the secret to success and he shares this data with VSiN readers on a daily basis for all of the major sports.