NFL DraftKings Betting Systems for 2024:

VSiN Pro Subscribers get access to our DraftKings Betting Splits, which update every 10 minutes with the most recent betting percentages. It’s a critical tool for developing our NFL DraftKings Betting Splits Systems.

With the NFL opening week nearly here, I will continue my preseason prep work with the DraftKings Betting Splits Systems, which we will track and qualify in the VSiN NFL Analytics Reports. If you missed my college football article on this subject a couple of weeks ago or haven’t been following my DK Betting Splits work over the last couple of years, these systems, and the splits for that matter, have become quite popular with both VSiN Analysts and readers. 

 

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In short, the numbers that DK provides in this feed summarize the percentage of the money (handle) and the number of bets on each side of a wagering option for the games in most major sports. In preseason articles I published in the 2023 Football Betting Guides, I outlined systemic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data developed for college and pro football in the 2022 season. I continued tracking and updating those systems so bettors could focus on the best ways to use the numbers. Here are the angles we will use during the 2024 NFL season.

Qualifying plays for these angles are listed by VSiN on the Analytics Reports each week. They are updated twice weekly, first on the initial Wednesday release and again on the morning of every Sunday slate of games.

One key concept readers need to consider when utilizing the systems is that not all of them rely on fading the public majorities. Some of them are built on the premise of getting behind the masses.

Here are the systems with updated language and records heading into the ’24 season.

NFL DraftKings Betting Splits system #1: Over the past two seasons, when more than 65% of the handle has been on a particular side of an ATS wager, this majority group is just 96-111 ATS (46.4%). The number for this supermajority in college football was closer to 80%. In other words, if you see 2/3 of the handle backing one side in an NFL game this season, it’s consistently profitable to fade it.

NFL DraftKings Betting Splits system #2: In NFL divisional games during 2022 and 2023, DK majority handle bettors were awful, as this majority group is just 71-100 ATS (41.5%). With the obvious generality that public bettors love favorites, it’s clear that they don’t value the stakes of these rivalry games and what they mean for the competitors.

NFL DraftKings Betting Splits system #3: Similarly to #2 above, in that same time span, when the majority number of bets staked its side in an NFL divisional game, this majority group is just 76-99 ATS (43.4%).

NFL DraftKings Betting Splits system #4: In NFL non-conference games of 2023, DK majority handle bettors were quite sharp, as this majority group was 41-29 ATS (58.6%). This is quite the opposite performance level of #2 above, and unfortunately for bettors, there are two fewer non-conference tilts than divisional contests for each team on the schedule every year. Of course, if strategically playing both spots according to these systems, every game in either situation is an opportunity.

NFL DraftKings Betting Splits system #5: Since the start of the 2022 season, when the majority number of bets has backed road favorites for an ATS wager, these majority groups are just 80-105 ATS (43.2%). There are only 15 games or fewer each year when this group will back the home dog.

NFL DraftKings Betting Splits system #6: When the majority number of bets was on road underdogs for an ATS wager, these majority groups have produced adequate records, 61-54 ATS (53%) going back to September 2022. This matches up somewhat with the logic I used in explaining some college successes. When the public goes “against the grain,” they can do well.

NFL DraftKings Betting Splits system #7: When the majority handle and the number of bets have backed a team in an ATS wager in the higher-profile, non-Sunday afternoon games over the last two seasons, these majority groups are just 61-81 ATS (43%) & 62-80 ATS (43.7%) respectively. This set of games includes all the Thursday, Saturday, Sunday night (SNF), and Monday night contests.

NFL DraftKings Betting Splits system #8: In another rare winning record, when the majority of the handle has backed the team with fewer season wins in a 2022 or 2023 NFL game for an ATS wager, this majority group was 56-40 ATS (58.3%). This has proven to be another situation in which going against the grain pays off.

NFL DraftKings Betting Splits system #9: The average NFL total in 2022 was 44.2. Last year, it dropped over a point to 43.0. In games where the totals reached 46.5 or higher and oddsmakers thus expected them to be a little more explosive, the majority number of bettors rebounded incredibly in 2023. After going 28-53 ATS in 2022, they were. 44-24 ATS (64.7%) last year! We’ll see how that latter trend holds in 2024.

NFL DraftKings Betting Splits system #10: When 56% or more of the handle has been on the Under in an NFL game total over the last 1-1/2 season, this majority group has been quite sharp, 59-42 ATS (58.4%). This number for a supermajority in the NFL is quite low, which is evidence of how rarely the betting public bets on the low side of a total. Incidentally, the same majority figure for the number of bets has also produced a 44-33 (57.1%) record.

NFL DraftKings Betting Splits system #11: Quite the opposite of #9, the magic mark for a supermajority on the handle for betting Overs was 64% or higher, and this group performed miserably in 2022 and 2023 with a record of 86-123 (41.1%). This has been a long-standing belief to me, but when the Over looks too obvious, it usually loses. On the number of bets, this same supermajority percentage produced a slightly improved 87-104 (45.5%) record.

DK Betting Splits system #12: Call this one the Over trap, but when a supermajority (>=64%) of the handle has been on the Over, but DraftKings moved the opening total lower throughout the week, this majority group has lost big, going just 30-59 (33.7%) over the past two seasons. It was almost as if they were trying to bait more people into taking the Over. This is a classic example of those behind the counter being smarter than those trying to cash the tickets.

Get ready for the 2024 NFL season by downloading the VSiN NFL Betting Guide.

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